41–50 of 308 posts
I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…
I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…
I ask this question every so often on economic threads - Are jobs created or discovered? What field of study is most associated with "new jobs"?
Tomorrow we might discover a new kind of math, requiring newly trained mathmeticians in a novel field.
Those mathmeticians will need admins, business services, places to work, food, etc.
Thus even the discovery of a few jobs has more jobs created than found.
Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now. It’s seems like we had a price spike in December/Jan for various reasons and now things have stabilized. If trend continues it seems we should be back in normal yoy inflation rates shortly once we start comparing against that post spike floor
Chart 1 lays it out. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Inflation isn't increasing much in August - relatively to July, but July was still high. That graph needs to go negative (a decrease in the inflation rate each month) for a long time before we get back to something "normal" like 2-3% inflation.
I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…
Nah. Canada real estate has to take the hit.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
He's not just a blogger: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Tooze His books (particularly Crashed) are also really, really good.
Ok, so historian and author objects to current central bank policies. Not that much better...
> A generation of young people whose education was blighted by COVID lockdowns, will face a closed labour market. But shortly after, when all inefficient companies bankrupt, they'll wake up in the booming economy, finding places in perspective businesses. Crisis is good for the economy in the long term. I only worry that governments won't allow young trees to grow after the forest's fire.
Crisis is never good look at the correlation between unemployment and excess mortality rates…
Crisis time needs to be shortened then. Banks should raise rates firmly, reaching levels higher than inflation. Big companies should not be artificially saved from collapsing, and regulations simplified. The unemployment period will be then short.
> It is the most concerted effort to slow down growth and employment in the interests of monetary stability that we have seen since the 1980s. I see it as a war of generations. The boomers/genXers are eager to preserve their wealth and are once again dumping on young people. The 70s was a period of high inflation, it was also, according to piketty a period of high income equality for the world over. The central banks…
As a tail-end UK Gen Xer, while I have some wealth I have built from working for over 20 years, I missed out on houses costing 2-3x your income just as much as the younger generations did. I'm not sitting on a million dollar property that I paid 10c for in 1972, largely because I wasn't born then...
I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…
Nah. Canada real estate has to take the hit.
This article appears to take place in a universe where interest rates at central banks are at counter-inflationary levels. They've been inflationary for a decade, and continue to be so. With inflation at 10%, fears about "going too far with interest rates" make sense only *at least* north of 5%, and realistically, 8%.
Why 8? Doesn’t there need to be a premium for borrowing money? If i can borrow money at zero percent inflation adjusted rate, that is a great deal and still inflationary. I would say 12 percent would be neutral on 10 percent inflation.
I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…
I ask this question every so often on economic threads - Are jobs created or discovered? What field of study is most associated with "new jobs"?
But I guess to answer the question, jobs, especially at the bottom are "enabled" more than anything. We want people to do simple tasks, but tech advancements make it efficient enough to actually pay people to do it. Like rideshare drivers, ignoring valid claims about vc money burning. Some new types of jobs might be created or discovered but most jobs changes are about determining whether its viable to pay something to do something you want to do. The idea to have them do it has always been there.