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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#211

Post by [deleted] »

yrgulation wrote: post #41
Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

[deleted]

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#212

Post by Agamus »

anonporridge wrote: post #154
harpersealtako wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't argue with demographics because, outside of immigration, it is physically impossible to change them in the short term. Even if e.g. Korea somehow managed to get a fertility rate of 10 tomorrow, it would takes many decades for that generation to begin to contribute to the economy as a class of high-skilled laborers. No matter what Korea does, absent implausible levels of immigration, they are still set for f…

To me, this is one of America's superpowers. America is quite unique in the world by being so significantly multicultural, and increasingly so. It can tune and balance its demographics with immigration. It is especially good at attracting the best and brightest from around the world, because there is a realistic, and well trodden path, of not only fully integrating yourself and your children into American society, bu…

Thank you for posting this! I imagine some people reading it may have not considered it before.

Does this idea also extend to ethnicity? This is far from the original topic, but if I emigrate to my wife's home country, I don't think I can ever say I am ethnically "Danish", (or can I?) but she has been "ethnically" American since the day they gave her an ID. Or perhaps there is no "American" ethnicity? I would love someone to educate me on this topic. Perhaps "American" ethnicity is represented in those who move here to be a participate in 'American values'?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#213

Post by bombcar »

divided wrote: post #201
skciva wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when the terms of service change in real time? When you try to contact someone and you're met with a void? When your livelihood is tied to a platform that decides to shut down? When an algorithm determines you're a threat or you're not allowed to cross a boarder? Tech is integrating itself into daily life every day, for better and for worse. Leaders in the space need to slow down and realize the havoc th…

I’m interested in examples of where breaking a company’s rules has led to fines or imprisonment—particularly ones _enforced_ by the tech monopoly—that didn’t also involve breaking laws. Not talking about the flaws in technology (your example of misidentification for instance). You may just be making a separate point, but my response was in regards to the sentiment of its parent. Your other comments I agree with, but…

The closest at this time would be PayPal freezing/seizing accounts that are "in violation of the terms and conditions" - there are various stories around it.

A government is more than just the entity that can fine/imprison you.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#214

Post by scottyah »

myself248 wrote: post #142
bombcar wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sanctions are a "one time weapon" I fear, and many many countries are now including "what if we or someone we trade with gets sanctioned by the US" as part of their contingency planning.

Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. I'm just waiting for China to decide they're strong enough to cut the US off. Assuming we survive the pain, that'll be an interesting day.

The industry developed during sanctions is a lot like those created during times of highly protectionist policies though. Once those walls come down, they have to compete with the rest of the world that has been innovating a lot faster. They’ll need a lot of supplemental income or all these bubble-spawned companies will die off. I think it’d be smarter to NOT try to develop everything in-house if you’re a smaller country with many imports.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#215

Post by ROTMetro »

nicodjimenez wrote: post #180
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

If the opinion you share is unpopular, it's because it's correct, and the truth is the enemy of the oligarchs that are scamming citizens in the US and the West in general. US is now a scam that exports inflation and crap 2nd rate weaponry. Scam economy, scam military industrial complex, scam military, scam president, scam everything. If you have a feeling the US is in decline, it's because it is. The situation is muc…

And who is ascendant? China, who, oops, was overcounting their population by 100 million and now realize they have reached/passed the peak working population? Europe, who is completely dependant on the USA to maintain a unipolar world that they then take advantage of? Are you an 80s kid like me, and Japan and Russia are going to eat our lunch any day now? Maybe Dubai with their wanna be Vegas financial center in the desert is where you think is safe in a 'the world is falling apart, let's move to a self sustaining country' scenario? Is the whole world falling apart, in which case it's probably best to be in a country that is energy independent (USA), able to be food independant (USA), has the manufacturing base that if needed can onshore/bootstrap manufacturing (USA) and able to retool to be technologically independent (USA).

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#216

Post by danenania »

anonporridge wrote: post #154
harpersealtako wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't argue with demographics because, outside of immigration, it is physically impossible to change them in the short term. Even if e.g. Korea somehow managed to get a fertility rate of 10 tomorrow, it would takes many decades for that generation to begin to contribute to the economy as a class of high-skilled laborers. No matter what Korea does, absent implausible levels of immigration, they are still set for f…

To me, this is one of America's superpowers. America is quite unique in the world by being so significantly multicultural, and increasingly so. It can tune and balance its demographics with immigration. It is especially good at attracting the best and brightest from around the world, because there is a realistic, and well trodden path, of not only fully integrating yourself and your children into American society, bu…

Well said. Growing up in the US, this is something I completely took for granted. Living in a couple other countries made me realize how special and unique it is.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#217

Post by ProjectArcturis »

andrewclunn wrote: post #99
macintux wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Biden made the Taliban conquer Afghanistan” is as believable as “Biden made Putin invade Ukraine”.

Would you believe that the US policy of continually expanding NATO, combined with a military coup of the democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014 are more to blame for Putin attacking Ukraine? I wouldn't blame Biden. I'd blame Clinton, Bush, and Obama. But hey, you weren't actually asking to be informed about anything that wasn't CIA approved corporate news talking points. You just wanted a pithy straw man…

I believe a citation is needed for the claim that the 2014 Ukraine revolution was a "military coup".

Anyway, it's not like the US demanded that Latvia, Poland, etc. join NATO. They are sovereign nations who hated Soviet occupation, and when they got a chance, they joined a mutual defense organization to keep Russia from re-invading them. If Russia didn't want NATO to expand, it shouldn't have been so aggressive towards its neighbors.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#218

Post by lambic2 »

FredPret wrote: post #91
bwb wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just going to chime in with a non political fact: the withdrawal treaty was done by the previous administration, the planning by the military. It was always going to be a shit show. Presidents are not all powerful gods who control things like the stock market, inflation, or pulling everyone out of a foreign country.

It’s surprising to see people’s willingness to attribute everything that happens to the president. Trump: Stock market boom, Jobs boom, Covid, Police violence Biden: Recession The optimal Covid response will only be known a generation from now. The best government economic policy is something that has to play out over many years and has only a loose connection to broader economic performance. The cops are going to do…

Isn't that a verifiable fact though, that Trump set the deadline to be fully out of Afghanistan and that it was going to be super messy with the aggressive timeline? Article from March 2021: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/2021/03/17/u...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#219

Post by [deleted] »

codefreeordie wrote: post #144
ajuc wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. EU is "the west" too, and it's more people than US. And maternity leaves here are around 6-12 months. Population still decreases. Significant part of EU was under communism and had baby booms then despite abysmal pay and much WORSE standards of living then than now. Now their populations go down despite the face they are much wealthier and well off. I live in Poland. There's no comparison, when I look at photos…

Go back and read Adam Smith. The thing we don't appreciate today is that having more children used to be an investment -- not just in the idea of family, but literally an investment, as kids would grow up enough to start producing more resources than they cost pretty quickly, and were a net contributor to the family. Nowadays, having kids is wonderful and great and fulfilling and life-changing and all those things --…

[deleted]

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#220

Post by boomchinolo78 »

puranjay wrote: post #107
next_xibalba wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

The new economic model will be some sort of feudalism, we are starting to see it already.
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