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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

gcaptain.com

61–70 of 483 posts

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#61
post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

Nah. EU is "the west" too, and it's more people than US. And maternity leaves here are around 6-12 months. Population still decreases. Significant part of EU was under communism and had baby booms then despite abysmal pay and much WORSE standards of living then than now. Now their populations go down despite the face they are much wealthier and well off. I live in Poland. There's no comparison, when I look at photos and videos made in 80s in my country it looks like 3rd world. I haven't realized then but now when I look back it's crazy how much changed. But people had kids then and don't have kids now.

What changed is perspectives. In communism you'd earn almost the same no matter where, how much, and how well you worked. And money mattered little anyway, you couldn't buy anything with them, you had to have connections to "arrange" anything (even basic building materials were "arranged" through social networks not bought from a shop). So people invested in families and big social networks to survive. And had lots of kids cause there wasn't much else to do. No career to sacrifice, no recreation other than drinking and partying. No internet. TV had 2 channels and most people had only black-and-white receivers. Culture was only accessible in big cities. Half the families had no car. You couldn't travel abroad easily. There was censorship. There were blackouts at the night.

Why not have kids in these circumstances? What are you losing?

Now your standard of living depends mostly on your education and working ethic. And it can vary greatly. Sky is the limit. You can have a yacht. You can travel all over the world. You can be unemployed and live under the bridge. And anything in between.

You don't need other people to survive. Money are very important. Career is an option. There's LOTS of ways to spend time and money. Having a kid is a big sacrifice in this world. So people work more and have smaller families.

The parts of each country that are less wealthy are usually also the parts with highest natural growth.

Basically - economic growth and development reduces natural growth. Pro-family laws are nice, but they don't change the basic calculation of pros vs cons as much as the changes in societies did.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#62
post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details…

How does withdrawing in late August coincide with 9/11 anniversary? And how does 'delaying the withdrawl since the other side was not keeping to the treaty by attacking local governments' become 'arbitrarily changing treaties'?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#63
post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details…

Just going to chime in with a non political fact: the withdrawal treaty was done by the previous administration, the planning by the military.

It was always going to be a shit show. Presidents are not all powerful gods who control things like the stock market, inflation, or pulling everyone out of a foreign country.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently.

China imports over 80% of its oil — it does not have the resources to be a deep-water navigation power.

That seems like a compelling reason for China to become a deep-water power (if it is not already): protect its oil-shipping interests.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#65
post #6

There's an incredibly important "the" missing from this submission title entirely changing the meaning. edit: It's actually missing from the page title on TFA too. Baffling.

I think it's like this: "The end of the world" is not an event, it's a process. That process is just beginning. We're nowhere near "the end of the end". At least, that's what I think it's trying to say.

but the title of the book has "the"

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently.

China imports over 80% of its oil — it does not have the resources to be a deep-water navigation power.

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/china-oil/#oil-reserves https://www.worldometers.info/oil/us-oil/#oil-reserves

Looks like the US and China import about the same quantity of oil. That doesn't contradict what you said, but I think it does diminish its significance.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#67
post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

No post body was provided.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#68
post #30

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.

The takeover of government functions by multinational corporations is a cyberpunk trope. See any of William Gibson's fiction from the early 80s.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#69
post #50

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

"which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers?" Governments have the monopoly on sanctioned use of violence. They could choose to outsource that to a 3rd party, such as privateers.

The discussion is about governments losing that monopoly.

It is true that one plausible mechanism of that transition is outsourcing. Let a mercenary outfit become too competent and your vendor can become your rival.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#70
post #60

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

The modern Westphalian nation-state may just be an accident of history, eventually replaced by other mechanisms. Arguably it already has begun; tech monopolies are starting to provide "government-like" rules and enforcement.

Feudalism, here we go
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