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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#41

Post by yrgulation »

Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty.

Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprised by the raging population decline. Most of the western world is not child friendly, simple as that.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#42

Post by andrewclunn »

Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan.

Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details before attempted to do so in such a blatant manner.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#43

Post by baxtr »

Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> The vast majority of major countries with the exception of the US and Mexico have passed a point of no return demographically

Where is the data to back this statement up? Sub-Sahara African countries have been growing by 2.5% over the last decades. Just one example.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=Z...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#44

Post by IAmWorried »

I've read a few of Zeihan's books, and it seems like the author of this article is missing the point. Zeihan says, again and again, that basically the ONLY reason for the US pulling away from globalization is the new shale oil boom, which makes the country energy independent. My layman's understanding is that under the Biden administration regulators have hobbled these shale wells in the hope of achieving an energy "transition", whatever that may mean. So we aren't really energy independent after all, at least not until the transition is completed. So I'm not sure how the conclusions of the article really make sense, notwithstanding the many references to how you could get rich quick by betting on these outcomes.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#45

Post by eruleman »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #24
eruleman wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's navy can't go further than 1,000 miles from the shore. They can't protect shipping anywhere outside of their coast.

Currently.

China imports over 80% of its oil — it does not have the resources to be a deep-water navigation power.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#46

Post by lbrito »

eruleman wrote: post #22
giorgosts wrote: post #15

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

China's navy can't go further than 1,000 miles from the shore. They can't protect shipping anywhere outside of their coast.

Soon enough though

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-china-launches...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#47

Post by nostrademons »

walleeee wrote: post #16
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? How do you envision the deprecation of the nuclear-armed nation state unfolding? The USSR had a unipolar world outside to stabilize and manage its disintegration. How is this accomplished in a multipolar context, with tensions inflamed by intensifying scarcity, c…

I'm not too worried about loose nukes or nuclear terrorism. Every major nuclear power other than China incorporates PALs [1] into the design of their nuclear weapons. Without a centrally generated & authenticated code, they don't function. The PAL is designed such that disabling it requires dismantling the nuclear weapon, which means you need to have the know-how to build nukes in the first place to re-enable it.

This, incidentally, is why Ukraine gave Russia back its nukes after the fall of the Soviet Union. Without the codes in Moscow's possession they were just radioactive waste.

I do expect a number of smaller conventional conflicts to break out in the transition, because that's what always happens when a hegemon loses its monopoly on physical force. It's going to be a bloody few decades, but not the end of humanity.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#48

Post by DubiousPusher »

Interesting article. This has uni econ shit-lib professor written all over it though. Not discounting that view. I think there's a lot of truth to it but they're pulling a little hard at the teet of: if you're poor, don't blame global capital!

> Only those nations secluded from navigable waters – e.g. Afghanistan, Chad, Mongolia, Bolivia, etc – failed to prosper (note, the high coastal bluffs and lack of coastal protection throughout most of Africa slowed investment in most of the continent)..

> In the age of globalization, everyone could get in on global access, manufacturing, and mass consumption,” writes Zeihan in a chapter titled The Americanization of Trade.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#49

Post by awillen »

mooreds wrote: post #30
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.

Red Mars doesn't go quite as far, but does look at a world in which multinational corporations are competitive with countries in terms of global power.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#50

Post by giantg2 »

nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

"which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers?"

Governments have the monopoly on sanctioned use of violence. They could choose to outsource that to a 3rd party, such as privateers.

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