Live data from Hacker News

The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

gcaptain.com

21–30 of 483 posts

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#21

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

That's all government has ever been and will always be: a protection racket.

It's not a racket when it's consistently better than the alternative.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#22

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

China's navy can't go further than 1,000 miles from the shore. They can't protect shipping anywhere outside of their coast.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#23

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

> US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe.

That already covered by option 2 in the op ("2 The Rise Of China"). It's not a very interesting option to discuss when it comes to shipping (e.g. everything stays the same, except Chinese warships substituted for American).

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#24

US-centric approach. How about if China decides to fill the power vacuum that the isolationist US leaves. How about if eg. COSCO buys out the port operators around the globe. How about if they decide to protect their shipping routes with their military so that they carry on with providing goods to the globe. Globalization is still in the best interests of China, even if the US decides to abandon it.

China's navy can't go further than 1,000 miles from the shore. They can't protect shipping anywhere outside of their coast.

Currently.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#25
post #8

This reads like a lot of Mahanism (He Who Controls The Seas Controls The World) in a new coat of paint. And that Mahanism is the greatest self-fulfilling prophecy combined with a big kernel of truth should be self-evident looking at human history. So, while not false in itself, also nothing earthshatteringly new.

I've read most of Mahan's books and I've read at least some of Zeihan's books. Mahan's view is essentially that battle fleet dominance combined with ownership of key naval strongpoints (think Gibraltar) makes military success and overall dominance more likely.

Zeihan's view diverges somewhat from Mahan's points, in part because he has different views, and partly just because we're in a different era than the one Mahan was writing for. Mahan earned a lot of credibility because the late 19th century and early to mid 20th century was one in which there could be decisive naval battles, and a powerful battlefleet could virtually guarantee sea dominance.

Mahanism isn't really a prophecy so much as it was a political program pursued by Mahan himself and his allies in the legislature, the presidency under Roosevelt, the business community of his time, and with the general cooperation of the British. German naval leaders during WWI and WWII tried to implement Mahanism as if it were an ideology, but failed in part due to German naval geography and in part because they just were never able to get the level of political support that would have been necessary to rival the Atlantic powers on water. So, at least in the US, it wasn't "self-fulfilling" -- he made it his life's work to fulfill it. At a time in which most of our foreign policy intellectuals fail at accomplishing their goals, it's worth noting that he succeeded, regardless of whether or not one thinks those goals are good.

The era that we are in now is one in which coastal defenses are more powerful and unpredictable than they have been in the past. The role of aviation and aircraft carriers is also highly debatable until we have a real peer to peer war with nukes.

Personally, I found Zeihan a bit exasperating in that his analysis is often good, but he's also often glib and breezy, particularly on analysis of Russia, China, and some other countries. But he's very good at talking about some of these crucial big picture topics that get taken for granted to a popular audience.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#26
Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history:

1. Deglobalization; and

2. Depopulation

The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart.

Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Zeihan argues that this trend toward increasing isolationism goes back decades.

What may seem less familiar is the demographic implosion the entire world is undergoing - a baby bust. The vast majority of major countries with the exception of the US and Mexico have passed a point of no return demographically. Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. As their populations ebb, so will their economic growth prospects and place on the world stage. The problem is especially pronounced in Asia and Europe, but can be found everywhere.

The reason for the bust: people moved to cities. On a farm, kids are free labor. In a city, kids are expensive conversational pieces.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#27

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? How do you envision the deprecation of the nuclear-armed nation state unfolding? The USSR had a unipolar world outside to stabilize and manage its disintegration. How is this accomplished in a multipolar context, with tensions inflamed by intensifying scarcity, c…

It's not just the multipolarity you have to consider. I actually think that's fairly resolvable for something like loose nukes as basically every stable power has an interest in catch-alls for such things.

But the U.S. the EU and China are all facing internal shifts in thinking about how they relate to the rest of the world. And that's a true wildcard.

Those swings, coupled with multipolarity create a very dynamic system that I think is impossible to predict. When a country may stick its thumb in the eye of international treaty simply because it satisfies a belligerent domestic constituency and that alienates a relatively equal strength power, that's a very volatile situation.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#28
post #10

> Russia is blockading Ukraine grain exports Russia say that it's Ukraine refusing to demine the waters that it, Ukraine, mined in the first place. I've also read that the impact of the (lack of) grain exports is drastically overblown

That last statement about grain exports should be overblown requires a source. It is quite widely published that this has a major impact. An example: https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/19/global-food-crisis-looms...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#29
post #10

> Russia is blockading Ukraine grain exports Russia say that it's Ukraine refusing to demine the waters that it, Ukraine, mined in the first place. I've also read that the impact of the (lack of) grain exports is drastically overblown

Well, those ports would not have been mined if it weren't for the Russian invasion. Without Russian ships roaming the coast and ready to attack or disembark soldiers and tanks the situation would come back to normal ASAP. Anyway that's not the problem.

The grain shortage is not about an insufficient amount of grain worldwide, but because of less grain available on the markets prices went up and many poor countries cannot compete and/or afford to buy it at current prices. Also because those who can afford it are hoarding since well, you may never know.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#30

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers?

Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.

Post reply on HN