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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#151

Post by wmeredith »

next_xibalba wrote: post #94
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

Here's a skeptical look at some of his claims: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/11/peter-zeihan-makes-bad...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#152

Post by antisthenes »

arcturus17 wrote: post #114
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

You can’t argue with demographics, so you wouldn’t have argued with Malthus? He was completely wrong, at the very least in timescale.

Malthus only has to be right once and the timeline is completely irrelevant.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#153

Post by skciva »

divided wrote: post #90
bombcar wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The modern Westphalian nation-state may just be an accident of history, eventually replaced by other mechanisms. Arguably it already has begun; tech monopolies are starting to provide "government-like" rules and enforcement.

It is a stretch to call enforcing terms of service “government-like” rules and enforcement. This is like calling a restaurant hanging up a “no shirt, no shoes, no service” sign the same. And thus far I haven’t seen them issue fines or imprisonment over breaking their rules.

What happens when the terms of service change in real time? When you try to contact someone and you're met with a void? When your livelihood is tied to a platform that decides to shut down? When an algorithm determines you're a threat or you're not allowed to cross a boarder?

Tech is integrating itself into daily life every day, for better and for worse. Leaders in the space need to slow down and realize the havoc they wreck when they "move fast and break things."

As someone on HN you're likely privy to how to navigate these waters. Everyday people are buying into whatever they're being sold (because why wouldn't they when they've basically got no viable alternatives) from tech and then being left empty handed when the VCs and leaders get their payouts and move on to what ever shiny object they spot on the horizon.

If you or your family and friends haven't been on the receiving end of fines or imprisonment due to technology consider yourself lucky and diversify your community.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#154

Post by anonporridge »

harpersealtako wrote: post #130
arcturus17 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t argue with demographics, so you wouldn’t have argued with Malthus? He was completely wrong, at the very least in timescale.

You can't argue with demographics because, outside of immigration, it is physically impossible to change them in the short term. Even if e.g. Korea somehow managed to get a fertility rate of 10 tomorrow, it would takes many decades for that generation to begin to contribute to the economy as a class of high-skilled laborers. No matter what Korea does, absent implausible levels of immigration, they are still set for f…

To me, this is one of America's superpowers.

America is quite unique in the world by being so significantly multicultural, and increasingly so. It can tune and balance its demographics with immigration. It is especially good at attracting the best and brightest from around the world, because there is a realistic, and well trodden path, of not only fully integrating yourself and your children into American society, but also integrating into the ruling/upper class.

For example, any Chinese citizen can effectively defect and build a safe and sustainable life in America. Millions have already done it. First generation immigrants lead some of America's most powerful corporations. Second generation immigrants are welcome as officials in the government. The current VP is second generation immigrant of Indian/Jamaican descent.

On the other hand, an American can never effectively defect to China. Maybe if you are ethnically Chinese, your children could be accepted, but not likely anyone else. China simply doesn't have a culture of fully integrating people of all kinds into it's society.

The funnel of exceptional humans is one way, and it's into America.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#155

Post by Aunche »

puranjay wrote: post #107
next_xibalba wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

>you have to agree that in the face of declining populations and ageing demographics, we will have to shift to a new economic model where growth isn’t the only goal

Who exactly is setting growth as the "only goal"? It's really only developing countries and the tech sector. Japan and basically are of Europe is more or less fine with their stagnant GDP.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#156

Post by vkou »

bombcar wrote: post #134
DennisP wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just read all Zeihan's books. The only counterargument I can think of is that maybe with our interdependent world, sanctions have gotten effective enough to substitute for US military power to some extent. Zeihan himself has said China has to be reevaluating the idea of an attack on Taiwan, after seeing the sanctions and boycotts against Russia. Sanctions haven't stopped Russia but Russia is a food and fuel exporte…

Sanctions are a "one time weapon" I fear, and many many countries are now including "what if we or someone we trade with gets sanctioned by the US" as part of their contingency planning.

They've always had this kind of contingency planning, it's why Russia dabbled in onshoring chip manufacturing, and why the US keeps a tight lid on oil imports and exports, and why the US keeps automotive and aerospace manufacturing onshore.

The thing is, unless you are the US, China, or the EU, you simply can't afford to onshore most of the life-critical industries you rely on - even in theory. So you may be unhappy about what sanctions could do to you, but the only actual working solution that you have is to suck up to one of those three.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#157

Post by newsclues »

pmontra wrote: post #38
BatFastard wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine that this would first manifest itself in smaller countries. For example Mali employs the Wagner group out of Russia as a supplement for its Army. And I believe they are used by other countries as well. I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies, but possibly being the source of troops and technology. Really I don't see U.S. citizens joining mercenary groups, quality of life is too good.…

> I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies Russia is using Wagner Group in Ukraine. Does that count as a private company?

The USA has nukes and employs military contractors.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#158

Post by yucky »

pmontra wrote: post #38
BatFastard wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine that this would first manifest itself in smaller countries. For example Mali employs the Wagner group out of Russia as a supplement for its Army. And I believe they are used by other countries as well. I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies, but possibly being the source of troops and technology. Really I don't see U.S. citizens joining mercenary groups, quality of life is too good.…

> I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies Russia is using Wagner Group in Ukraine. Does that count as a private company?

Yep, Wagner is basically the Blackwater of Russia. We taught them well.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#159

Post by newsclues »

hollerith wrote: post #85

>Everyone prospered from more efficient shipping but there was a cost paid by the one nation that did not need maritime security because it had two large oceans protecting it from would-be aggressors, was a net exporter of food and fuel. Big error there: the US is a net exporter of fuel now but it sure wasn't for most of the Cold War. How does someone writing in a magazine or blog for the shipping industry not know t…

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...

looks like it’s a net exporter of oil, remember you can import, refine and export.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#160

Post by vkou »

awillen wrote: post #49
mooreds wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.

Red Mars doesn't go quite as far, but does look at a world in which multinational corporations are competitive with countries in terms of global power.

In many[1] of those countries, private security workers do not have the power of pit, gallows, judicial, or extrajudicial execution. The police, on the other hand, do [2].

[1] Yes, there are parts of the world where the local mining firm's private security will happily intimidate, beat, and murder problem people. It's generally the exception, rather than the rule. Your local mall cop can't do that to you, and is generally held to a far higher standard of conduct and legal accountability than the police.

[2] Yes, if you squint a bunch, stuff like forced arbitration encroaches on the space occupied by the legal system, but it is ultimately subservient to it.

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