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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#71

Post by the_af »

usrn wrote: post #67
yrgulation wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

Quoted post unavailable.

"Sending women to work".

Need I remind you women are creatures with their own volition and needs, who may decide for or against going to work -- and derive satisfaction or frustration from it -- just like men?

You could make the more reasonable argument that it's increasingly unreasonable to expect any person of any sex to sit in an office for 8 hours a day. And that's not even to mention people doing real, physically extenuating work for really long hours (which those of us on HN tend to forget about, comfy in our white collar bubbles).

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#72

Post by anonAndOn »

giantg2 wrote: post #50
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

"which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers?" Governments have the monopoly on sanctioned use of violence. They could choose to outsource that to a 3rd party, such as privateers.

Don't forget aspiring politicians.[0] They also hire hit squads with the intent on sanctioning its use once they're in charge (presumably).

[0]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57762246

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#73

Post by andrewclunn »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #57
andrewclunn wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and abided by the previous commitment to exit Afghanistan. Ummm, what? Biden moved the date for withdrawal back, to make it coincide with a 9/11 anniversary. Then, seeing that the US would just arbitrarily change treaties, the Taliban launched an assault and reconquered the country. I get that historical revisionism is popular with political partisans, but usually you wait until goldfish have forgotten the details…

Are you trying to suggest the taliban wouldn't have launched an assault if the date wasn't moved and the US pulled out? I feel your desire to throw a political punch has utterly blinded you here.

That is exactly what I'm claiming, as evidenced by the timeline and events as they occurred. To label a resounding defeat as a withdrawal, simultaneously claim the withdrawal treaty was Trump's plan (but not hold Biden to account for breaking it), and then also claim that this was a continuation of the previous administration's policy... I mean these responses are inline with the sort of "facts don't matter" tribal rage I expected. Yours however, that dismisses the US blatantly breaking a treaty, is the special kind of qualified US military apologist rhetoric (just so long as the president has a D by their name) that is truly contemptible. Hence why your comment got the reply.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#74

Post by FredPret »

LAC-Tech wrote: post #39
streb-lo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a protection racket. A racket implies they're 'protecting' you from themselves. I don't think that's true. If protection isn't important to you, you can give Somalia a try.

Somalia has a government.

On paper, not in practice

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#75

Post by spaceman_2020 »

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year.

So far this year we’ve had:

- A land war in Europe

- Food insecurity in the developing world

- Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes

- Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently).

Everything that he had talked about in the past and in his latest book.

The thing about Zeihan’s arguments is that you can’t really argue against demographics. You can procure any resource from any part of the world, but if you want an 18 year old to consume or work or fight, you HAVE to wait 18 years. Or import them from elsewhere - which causes all sorts of cultural and societal conflicts.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#76

Post by ParksNet »

baxtr wrote: post #43
Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> The vast majority of major countries with the exception of the US and Mexico have passed a point of no return demographically Where is the data to back this statement up? Sub-Sahara African countries have been growing by 2.5% over the last decades. Just one example. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=Z...

Sub-Saharan Africa is irrelevant, economically. Majority of the population engages in subsistence-level agriculture, or resource extraction for foreign companies. IQ Is measured at an average of 70 or lower: https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php (partly due to inadequate nutrition and opportunities).

Corruption and poverty is widespread, and population expansion is directly tied to environmental degradation. This part of the world is one area where fewer or no children should be ideal.

The population of eg. Ghana could be 5 million (as it was as recently as 1950) instead of 50 million, there would just be more mechanization of agriculture (and substantially better quality of life for the people living there).

https://www.populationpyramid.net/ghana/2050/

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#77

Post by chiefalchemist »

vbezhenar wrote: post #56
BatFastard wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine that this would first manifest itself in smaller countries. For example Mali employs the Wagner group out of Russia as a supplement for its Army. And I believe they are used by other countries as well. I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies, but possibly being the source of troops and technology. Really I don't see U.S. citizens joining mercenary groups, quality of life is too good.…

US mercenaries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_(company) One issue with mercenaries is that they're not subject to military laws and will be hang if captured. Like it happens with few american citizens captured in Ukraine by DNR.

Better known as "private security firms". High risk. Great pay. Two-fingers up to the volunteers \ vets.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#78

Post by cbozeman »

LAC-Tech wrote: post #39
streb-lo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a protection racket. A racket implies they're 'protecting' you from themselves. I don't think that's true. If protection isn't important to you, you can give Somalia a try.

Somalia has a government.

In the same way that North Korea is the "Democratic People's" Republic of Korea.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#79

Post by puranjay »

Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

Its alarming how fast all earlier projections are being proven wrong.

Like in India, our latest survey revealed that our fertility rate is now already below replacement level - a landmark we were supposed to hit in 2050. We hit that three decades ahead of schedule.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#80

Post by anotherman554 »

mooreds wrote: post #30
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.

I think Snowcrash is intentionally campy and satirical?

At any rate I don't think what science fiction writers do is "exploring possible futures" so much as "telling lies for fun and profit" as one author entitled his fiction writing craft book.

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