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A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

economist.com

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Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#61

Post by kyrra »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Logistics I think is large part of it. Another part is going to be the fertilizer shortage.

> Russia also exported 11% of the world's urea, and 48% of the ammonium nitrate. Russia and Ukraine together export 28% of fertilizers made from nitrogen and phosphorous, as well as potassium, according to Morgan Stanley.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/a-fertilizer-shortage-worsen...

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#62

Post by anamax »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

> Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone

And how does that happen? Be very specific and quantitative. For example, which land gets planted that isn't planted now. Or, which crop gets replaced. Where do the inputs come from and how is that paid for? (Be sure to include equipment.)

Bloomberg notwithstanding, US farmers are actually fairly technically sophisticated. They're also money driven and competent.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#63

Post by junofan »

anamax wrote: post #62
charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

> Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone And how does that happen? Be very specific and quantitative. For example, which land gets planted that isn't planted now. Or, which crop gets replaced. Where do the inputs come from and how is that paid for? (Be sure to include equipment.) Bloomberg notwithstanding, US farmers are actually fairly technically sophisticated. They're also money driven and competent.

Futures? This is what they’re for. Agriculture deals with shocks all the time. Nobody’s going to give you a centrally planned rundown.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#64

Post by paulcole »

alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

Based on your farming experience how difficult is it for the average farmer to more than double their wheat production?

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#65

Post by kergonath »

landemva wrote: post #57
Mountain_Skies wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before the invasion of Ukraine, covid has already wreaked havoc with agricultural supply chains. The war in Ukraine has made things worse but things were going to be bad even without it.

It was government actions related to covid which wreaked havoc on supply chains. And endless wars are also government actions.

> It was government actions related to covid which wreaked havoc on supply chains.

A million dead in the US was always going to wreck havoc, not even counting the people in hospital. For all we know it would have been much worse without government action.

> And endless wars are also government actions.

That is not very helpful. Countries in the Middle East dependent on grain from Ukraine had absolutely no way of avoiding the war, and yet will bear the consequences. From their point of view, it is an uncontrollable calamity just like COVID.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#66

Post by str34m »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #52
pavankat wrote: post #50

Good opportunity to reduce livestock and redirect crops for human consumption https://news.cornell.edu/stories/1997/08/future-water-and-en...

As soon as humans grow multiple stomachs, we'll be all set.

No post body was provided.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#68

Post by MichaelMoser123 »

Interesting if food shortages will result in other conflicts, one of the causes for the Arab Spring were high food prices [1]

Is it possible that all this will result in a cascade of conflicts?

Here they are saying that food prices were going to rise due to COVID - and that was before the outbreak of the war [2]

Things seem to be going from bad to worse...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Causes

[2] https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-and-rising-global-food-p...

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#69

Post by MR4D »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

> Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest.

Given the fertilizer shortage, the US is most likely to produce 10% less.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#70

Post by HWR_14 »

sremani wrote: post #20
alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

that would be easy if there was an AWS for Food! Here is the reality, not only the grains but the inputs like fertilizers etc are sky-rocketing. Every body wants to piss of Fossil Fuels with out even understanding how foundational they are to Modern Civilization (I welcome the downvotes but I will not stop advocating). Say, with me, N P K - Nitrogen Phosphorous Pottasium. Belarus is a major Potash supplier, Natural g…

> the government will come and take away the grain below market rate

First, that rate is below what the market rate would without government farm supports. Second, the government doesn't confiscate grain. At least not in western countries.

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