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A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

economist.com

51–60 of 104 posts

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#51
post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

LOL, tech guys (me included) are SO detached from real life.

This is not a "just spin up more AWS instances" kind of thing.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#53

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Before the invasion of Ukraine, covid has already wreaked havoc with agricultural supply chains. The war in Ukraine has made things worse but things were going to be bad even without it.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#54
post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

LOL, tech guys (me included) are SO detached from real life. This is not a "just spin up more AWS instances" kind of thing.

Doesn't help that the build pipeline takes a long time to complete. By the time the build is done, the needs may have changed. Agriculture is not good at iterative development, at least not rapid iterative development.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#55

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

There are more issues than that, such as exchange rates. Also many populations around the world spend almost their entire income on food and still can barely survive. They are very price sensitive. If the price of wheat doubles it's almost irrelevant for us in the west, but potentially lethal for many in the third world.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#56
post #37
post #5

I would be interested in an analysis at scale of artifacts, components, foodstuffs, industrial inputs, which have similar impact to the loss of this source of wheat, against a worldwide wheat market. If (eg) Argentina Bolivia and Chile were unable to supply Lithium, how long would it take the world to ramp up to using Australian sources, and what would it do to the supply chain? Or, if the soybean crop failed in one…

Do you mean something like a "causal loop diagram" as mentioned in this article? https://www.transentis.com/understanding-the-beer-game/en/ (albeit at a larger scale and with more products and filter-by-country)

That's probably part of it, yes.

During peak covid vaccine ramp up, special plastic bags used in vaccine production were single source. So were the lipids and the factory to encapsulate the vaccine.

We saw mask and gown shortage, oxygen shortage, needle shortage.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#57

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Before the invasion of Ukraine, covid has already wreaked havoc with agricultural supply chains. The war in Ukraine has made things worse but things were going to be bad even without it.

It was government actions related to covid which wreaked havoc on supply chains.

And endless wars are also government actions.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#58
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's very difficult to say, actually; the Moskova was sunk with them after all, but the bigger issue is the abhorrent and indiscriminate shelling of civilian populations by the Russians. Fields with farmers and homes and hospitals with civilians are not of military importance. And yet, Russia keeps shooting them. According to western media. > The truth is Putin's Kremlin is to blame for this wide-spread shortage…

> According to western media. Wow, that's a new level of denial. Take a look, this happened yesterday [0]. This is a "culture hall", pretty far away from the front lines, where kids used to learn to play music. More than ten injured including children. [0] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQnU_3ljHMQ

Almost everything being put out now is propaganda for someone. Not sure why anyone would trust western media but the alternative certainly isn't to trust RT, Sputnik, or any of their sibling media outlets either. Anyone who thinks they've got a good handle on the situation in Ukraine is living in a bubble of wishful thinking. Eventually the physical world will win out regardless of what the Metaverse and cyberspace presents as being true.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#59

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Famines are rarely caused by the lack of food. The necessary food usually exists somewhere, but those with the ability to deal with the situation are often unwilling to do so. Either they have better uses for the money and other resources or they just think it's not their responsibility.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#60

Good opportunity to reduce livestock and redirect crops for human consumption https://news.cornell.edu/stories/1997/08/future-water-and-en...

As soon as humans grow multiple stomachs, we'll be all set.

I was unaware vegetarianism required surgery.
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