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A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

economist.com

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Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#41

Post by FooHentai »

sremani wrote: post #20
alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

that would be easy if there was an AWS for Food! Here is the reality, not only the grains but the inputs like fertilizers etc are sky-rocketing. Every body wants to piss of Fossil Fuels with out even understanding how foundational they are to Modern Civilization (I welcome the downvotes but I will not stop advocating). Say, with me, N P K - Nitrogen Phosphorous Pottasium. Belarus is a major Potash supplier, Natural g…

It comes back at us in all kinds of weird ways, too. Biofuel production, for example. Farmers make choices all the time to switch their production to be maximally profitable (example: Almost all of NZ shifting from lamb to milk production in the past few decades).

Biofuel production puts a spanner in things because previously we were swapping some form of consumable calories for another form of consumable calorie. But now you've got fuel production competing with food production, and their prices will begin to compete similarly. That inevitably leads to either cheaper fuel (spoiler: still not great for emissions) or significantly more expensive staple foods.

So any kind of squeeze on fossil fuel pricing leads to a down-stream increase on food pricing, one greater than just the energy use for production/transportation.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#42

Post by photon12 »

goodcanadian wrote: post #40
alliao wrote: post #11

let's say if the shortfall makes up 30% of supply.. surely those 70% other farmers would just need to raise by 140% or so to FULLY make up the difference? everyone pitch in a little, shouldn't be THAT big of a deal surely....

My father is a (retired) farmer. Wheat is a pretty reliable crop that pays for itself, but you don't really make money on it. So, you grow some wheat, and you grow other stuff, such as canola, in order to get paid. With the elevated prices, a bit more wheat may have been planted this year, but you have to remember that the prices of the inputs have gone up as well, particularly fertilizer and fuel. Moreover, any land…

This is highly dependent on the area. My family has a background in wheat farming, I grew up in an area with a lot of family wheat farms, and if you are in an area with good soil and the weather is good you can make a lot of money on a wheat crop even in so-so international wheat price conditions.

They rotate in other crops for soil balance but YMMV in terms of wheat profits.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#43

Post by charliea0 »

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest.

Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs in food insecure nations, but I'm not sure the answer is enabling Ukrainian production rather than producing more outside of Ukraine / ensuring countries don't cut off global trade in grains.

Figures from: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/export-losses-gi....

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#44

Post by charliea0 »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Honestly, just using existing corn less wastefully in the US might solve the problem.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#45

Post by goodcanadian »

photon12 wrote: post #42
goodcanadian wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My father is a (retired) farmer. Wheat is a pretty reliable crop that pays for itself, but you don't really make money on it. So, you grow some wheat, and you grow other stuff, such as canola, in order to get paid. With the elevated prices, a bit more wheat may have been planted this year, but you have to remember that the prices of the inputs have gone up as well, particularly fertilizer and fuel. Moreover, any land…

This is highly dependent on the area. My family has a background in wheat farming, I grew up in an area with a lot of family wheat farms, and if you are in an area with good soil and the weather is good you can make a lot of money on a wheat crop even in so-so international wheat price conditions. They rotate in other crops for soil balance but YMMV in terms of wheat profits.

Fair enough, different crops do better in different areas. In your case, for reasons of crop rotation (which you mentioned), they are still unlikely to be able to substantially increase wheat production. Farming is one of the most "free market" industries out there. In most cases, everything is already highly optimised.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#47

Post by monkeybutton »

seunosewa wrote: post #38
monkeybutton wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't tell if this is a joke or not. One would think that if a farmer could raise output (and thus revenue) by 140% on short demand, they would have already done so years ago?

They can increase wheat production by growing less of other crops. Rationale: wheat is more profitable because of its scarcity.

I guess smaller shortages spread over many crops is better than a large shortage in one major crop. Here's hoping it all works out!

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#48

Post by johnny22 »

planetsprite wrote: post #18
nine_k wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean that remaining primitive hunters-gatherers, as now observed in certain places near Amazon river, would be more of a success?

yes according to modern media sentiment. Never once have I watched a movie that argued for the antithesis of the "Avatar" respect nature mantra. I mean even without the warmongering factories are never portrayed in a positive light unless they're Willy Wonka's.

why do you need to argue for the existing society that mostly everbody agrees with. That'd make a boring movie.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#49

Post by 7speter »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

My tinfoil hat head cannon says this is all hype to have a reason to make the price of any given grain skyrocket.
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