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An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

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Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#511

Post by dragonwriter »

School-Cotton wrote: post #404
Barrin92 wrote: post #145

Kind of crazy how sentimental and emotional the response is with barely any actual discussion going on about the merits of this on a grand scale. Yes, stories about people's dogs and temporary economic depression are awful. The larger picture is that China by pursuing these policies has stopped millions of deaths, probably tens of millions of cases of long term disabilities, and overall kept the economy going. It's w…

Longevity is not the only thing that matters in life. I and I think most other people would rather live in a liberal country even if it means my life expectancy is slightly decreased. “Millions of deaths” sounds like a lot because the world (and Chinese) population is high, but the per-person life expectancy impact of an unchecked Covid pandemic is quite modest.

> Longevity is not the only thing that matters in life

Yeah, long COVID is a big impact, potentially bigger in terms of QALY or DALY than COVID-induced mortality.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#512

Post by dan-robertson »

Markoff wrote: post #495
dan-robertson wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems difficult to argue that mothers should totally change what they’re doing (away from the thing they had believed was right) and to achieve this they would likely need to be convinced that the new way is better. But I think this is also missing the point because if people are struggling to get food too they likely won’t produce much milk.

Obviously, I'm just pointing out they complain about being unable to do the bad thing they are used to. I can understand it's difficult to start doing the good thing now, but using this as example of how bad is lockdown is almost as alcoholics complaining they can't get alcohol, there are for sure much better examples why COVID zero is stupid strategy than mothers unable to get formula for their babies.

Well withdrawal syndromes for chronic alcoholics can be quite fatal so while it seems like it would be silly to complain about locked-down alcoholics not being able to get alcohol, the consequences could actually be bad. Though that depends on how sympathetic alcoholics are to you.

Maybe the actual thing to say is just ‘lockdowns are bad when they cause people to be unable to meet their basic needs’ and then not litigate on what precisely it is that people need.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#513

Post by pxtail »

bamboozled wrote: post #415

What actually is going on in China, is there some type of economic meltdown in progress ? Like, we can say it's because of covid, but something seems a miss to me. > This is the biggest, richest, most international city of China and people are starving, without medicine, and without freedom. What?

> Like, we can say it's because of covid, but something seems a miss to me.

I'm wondering about this as well - it's hard to imagine that this is not part of greater strategy so either all of this is intentional to increase pressure within Chinese society to the point of boiling for some reason - maybe to disrupt markets and world economy even more? Alternatively Omicron indeed surprised them and now when Russia is at war they do not want to deal with COVID and are ready to try to contain it at all costs.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#515

Post by paganel »

alangibson wrote: post #321

I'd like to hear from someone in China on why the government still pursues a zero-Covid policy. Is it just face-saving at this point?

The (relatively) high number of deaths during the recent Hong Kong omicron wave must also have scared them. There are lots of non-vaccinated elderly people in China (if I'm not mistaken only about 60% of the over-80s are vaccinated), and as such even (the relatively lighter) Omicron variant would cause lots and lots of deaths around China among that elderly population (and China has lots of elders).

All things considered not the best situation to be in, because getting rid of the zero-covid strategy right now will cause lots and lots of deaths. Maybe China should have done as the rest of the world has done when it came to Covid and it should have tried to adjust gradually, as the pandemic progressed.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#516

Post by singularity2001 »

pxtail wrote: post #513
bamboozled wrote: post #415

What actually is going on in China, is there some type of economic meltdown in progress ? Like, we can say it's because of covid, but something seems a miss to me. > This is the biggest, richest, most international city of China and people are starving, without medicine, and without freedom. What?

> Like, we can say it's because of covid, but something seems a miss to me. I'm wondering about this as well - it's hard to imagine that this is not part of greater strategy so either all of this is intentional to increase pressure within Chinese society to the point of boiling for some reason - maybe to disrupt markets and world economy even more? Alternatively Omicron indeed surprised them and now when Russia is at…

My pet suspicion is that it is somehow related to the Ukraine disaster or crash of the housing bubble, though a mere distraction seems like a weak reason.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#517

Post by evocatus »

rtpg wrote: post #202
makomk wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was no magic money tree. It took a while for the effects to spread to the whole of the economy - perhaps because people were in lockdown and limited in their ability to spend money - but throughout the western world people's incomes have been dropping in real inflation-adjusted terms. There's no way that they couldn't; a large chunk of the economy was shut down and producing nothing, so there's just plain less…

$2000 one time checks are not what is causing inflation. Extended unemployment insurance... I doubt it. Inflation right now is happening because logistics are messed up. Yeah, turns out that when things get messy then the price of things go up, cuz it's harder to get things done.

Ah yes. I suppose you still believe in Powell's story that inflation is transitory. Forget about the money supply or the sudden course correction to hike interest rates faster.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#518

Post by netsharc »

tangsanqian wrote: post #234

As a Chinese, I can say that the situation is worse than it in the article. My brother is a student who lives in a flat and has not eaten for two days and no one has brought basic substances. He can't leave the flat, he turns to his tutor but his tutor is also forced to stay at home (eating instant noodles every day). We are worried about him but there is nothing we can do, if we criticise the government on chinese T…

Genuine question: but if the police arrest him and take him to jail, do they feed him there?

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#519

Post by wyclif »

dan-robertson wrote: post #490
ascar wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These numbers are actually surprising considering that natural breast feeding has health benefits for the baby. Although it says "only breastmilk" which can also mean formula is used as a supplement.

In lots of poorer parts of the world formula is marketed as being better than breast milk. In many developed countries adverts like these are banned but they used to be allowed. There were also problems with e.g. young children with well-to-do parents being given only canned food and getting scurvy. The theme was again about a supposed better-planned diet than what poorer people from less advanced times had to use.

Definitely true here in SE Asia and other parts of the developing world. In the Philippines for instance, you go to a supermarket and there are rows and rows of formula boxes and all you need to do is look at the packaging and advertising to see the message they're trying to convey: formula is for good-looking, light-skinned, smart, educated parents and only ignorant dark-skinned provincial poor people breastfeed because they can't afford formula. That's the thinking. There's almost no consideration that breast milk is more healthy for the baby.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#520

Post by thevagrant »

ImaCake wrote: post #46
lvl102 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe they know something we don’t. Edit: there’s not a lot being talked about in terms of multiple infections over time. It’s not that the MRNA vaccines are effective it’s that the West pivoted to an entirely different public health policy.

Australia and New Zealand tried lockdowns against Delta. They didn't work until vaccination rates got high enough. Then omicron came and not even 90% vax rates were enough to stop the spread. So the vaccines without lockdowns is more a pragmatic move because lockdowns stopped working. Besides, the vaccines work, there just isn't the same need to have lockdowns anymore. AU and NZ lockdowns were less ugly than this Sha…

The Aus and NZ approach worked well to keep pressure off the health system until enough were vaccinated. Data seems to show those that had 3rd shot pfizer have very low risk of hospitalization compared with unvaxxed. The 3rd shot (booster) really makes a difference, something I myself was quite skeptical about early on. I had initially thought if the 2nd doesn't work then the third is probably placebo but glad to be proven wrong.
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