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An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

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Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#101

Post by urthor »

0des wrote: post #87
barry-cotter wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is bullshit. Even with no knowledge of China or Shanghai whatsoever you should know this is bullshit. There were very few jumpers in New York on September 11th. Most people don’t kill themselves in the face of certain death by burning or a building falling. Mass suicide wasn’t a thing in extermination camps like Auschwitz. Religiously motivated instances of mass suicide rely on peer pressure mechanisms tha…

Very few jumped in 9/11? Are you kidding me? I personally saw many with my own eyes.

As a percentage it wasn't high. Dozens I think?

Maybe 100 jumpers out of 3000 deaths?

In the worst situation imaginable.

I call that an endorsement for humanity's innate desire to grasp at life.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#102

Post by Jedd »

ImaCake wrote: post #39
jdrc wrote: post #26

Little weird to be talking about peopel starving and lacking meds, but then again they re able to find fresh fish. Anyway, i wonder what this pattern of isolatation can create in terms of covid variants which may develop in china or australia but which haven't been introduced to the rest of world this season.

Well Australia is open and has been for a while. As far as I know there were no novel variants that were found first here because the lockdowns suppressed case numbers and besides, there is only 25 million Australians. We have the same variants as the rest of the world, except most Australians don't know anyone who has died from COVID.

Can confirm, up to a point, though I'm an edge case in AU -- in part because everyone I know has been careful, sane, and kept up with vaccinations.

The count of people I know who've had COVID is now up to 16, and they've all been fine, of course.

Naturally, no one I know has been hospitalised, let alone died.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#103

Post by [deleted] »

urthor wrote: post #101
0des wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very few jumped in 9/11? Are you kidding me? I personally saw many with my own eyes.

As a percentage it wasn't high. Dozens I think? Maybe 100 jumpers out of 3000 deaths? In the worst situation imaginable. I call that an endorsement for humanity's innate desire to grasp at life.

[deleted]

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#104

Post by stackbutterflow »

seizethegdgap wrote: post #80
AussieWog93 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got a link to that?

Pretty sure this is it. Cannot stress enough that this video is HIGHLY NSFW. https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/tzosau/peop...

This is NSFL. For people who are curious but don't want to click, it shows people who committed suicide by hanging, and many, many suicides by jumping off buildings.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#105

Post by hihihihi1234 »

seizethegdgap wrote: post #85
barry-cotter wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is bullshit. Even with no knowledge of China or Shanghai whatsoever you should know this is bullshit. There were very few jumpers in New York on September 11th. Most people don’t kill themselves in the face of certain death by burning or a building falling. Mass suicide wasn’t a thing in extermination camps like Auschwitz. Religiously motivated instances of mass suicide rely on peer pressure mechanisms tha…

The video is here, ( https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/tzosau/peop... ) but each clip is unsourced or from an unknown date/time/location. It isn't a collective "mass suicide" in the Jonestown sense of the term, but a mass amount of individuals committing suicide.

I know this guy who's a rabid anti-vaxxer who thinks the COVID vaccines are a bioweapon engineered to kill people as part of a shadowy conspiracy to lower the world population by a billions. He claims that vaccinated people are dropping dead of heart attacks left, right and centre and it's all being covered up. Recently he sent me some "evidence" of this claim which was a compilation of clips (many taken from live TV) of people collapsing or fainting, sometimes clutching their chests, overlayed with spooky music and the Pfizer logo in the corner. Don't you get it? All these people are collapsing because they took the vaccine!

Except within five minutes I was able to find many of those same clips in other videos - eg by searching YouTube for "people fainting" - and most of them predated the pandemic by years. Clearly some troll had just found a bunch of old clips of people collapsing and edited it together into a lazy piece of anti-vaxx propaganda. And it works! People fall for it, even though this particular clip took about thirty seconds to debunk.

My point is - I've seen videos before of people jumping from buildings. They're not hard to find online; the now-defunct r/watchpeopledie was full of them, as was Liveleak (RIP). It would be trivially easy to find a bunch of these clips, edit them together and give them a caption that claims they all happened recently in one place and are part of a disturbing new trend.

So I'm not convinced that this video you shared is what it claims to be.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#106

Post by maxerickson »

anthony_d wrote: post #91
maxerickson wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The logistical system that grew with the area has been disrupted by the lockdown. The primary final link was probably people going to stores and restaurants to get food, which they currently aren't allowed to do. A logical fallacy isn't a "feeling", it's a short hand for identifying a poor use of logic, you should be able to directly explain the flaw you see in the other posters reasoning.

> "The shear size of some of these provinces make the logistical challenge of food delivery almost impossibile." This is a weak assertion without proof. You can either agree with it, dismiss it or you can question the basis for it. Real logic is entirely useless here (for many reasons), but guessing the basis is logically flawed is perfectly reasonable for humans having a conversation. Using pedantry to shut down dif…

Why invoke logic at all if the argument isn't logic? I don't think it's pedantry to point out that the form of your first sentence is a lot more useful than "feels like a logical fallacy" as an argument (or the "sounds like a logical fallacy" that they've since edited their comment to say).

Near universal food delivery isn't part of the existing logistical system, so it's certainly not surprising that it would be difficult to start doing near universal food delivery. I guess I wasn't super focused on the size part of it.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#107

Post by roenxi »

Gigachad wrote: post #40

Hard to verify the source of the video but there is one going around reddit right now showing mass suicides from people jumping out of high rise windows. Claimed to be people in lockdown in Shanghai.

Shanghai has a population larger than most countries. There are a lot of extreme stories every day in Shanghai. That has to be considered when talking about "mass" anything, even when putting aside the high likelihood of a misleading video.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#108

Post by seizethegdgap »

hihihihi1234 wrote: post #105
seizethegdgap wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The video is here, ( https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/tzosau/peop... ) but each clip is unsourced or from an unknown date/time/location. It isn't a collective "mass suicide" in the Jonestown sense of the term, but a mass amount of individuals committing suicide.

I know this guy who's a rabid anti-vaxxer who thinks the COVID vaccines are a bioweapon engineered to kill people as part of a shadowy conspiracy to lower the world population by a billions. He claims that vaccinated people are dropping dead of heart attacks left, right and centre and it's all being covered up. Recently he sent me some "evidence" of this claim which was a compilation of clips (many taken from live TV…

I understand that, I'm just sharing the video.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#109

Post by Laforet »

threatripper wrote: post #97
Laforet wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The imcumbent cabinet and politburo are going out of term later this year and a new list of names needs to be appointed and rubber stamped by the upcoming 20th CCP National Congress. The government essentially operate in caretaker mode for several months before the congress and any major policy reversal would be taboo as it could disrupt the political horse trading happening in the background. This is just not the ti…

It says that the congress is in the second half of 2022. That's still months into the future. With Omicron it could be some "interesting times" in those months. Until when does the situation need to appear under control? When could they announce a change of course?

>Until when does the situation need to appear under control?

Barring major catastrophe, thing will continue to drift in the current direction until the Congress is "concluded in triumph" and the new government sworn in. So probably no sooner than October/November.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#110

Post by urthor »

aperson_hello wrote: post #77
jefftk wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia: 6.6k deaths, 25M population, 0.03% dead US: 1M deaths, 300M people, 0.3% dead. On the other hand, Australia's had most of their deaths recently and is still going, while the US deaths were mostly earlier. So the gap will likely narrow over time.

And by excess death numbers, the US probably already had that many deaths before the time Australia locked down. The world acted too late to not let the cat out of the bag. Australia definitely avoided a lot of impact by locking down and starting locked down, but it was happenstance and geography that allowed it to do so semi-effectively

I believe most of the deaths in the US were not actually early. They were in that May-October range were there was just... yeah.

Edit: data https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores...

My old area under the curve skills require a bit more than a mark 1 eyeball. But most of it seems to be later, but there was an April spike.

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