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An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

jaapgrolleman.com

21–30 of 559 posts

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#21
post #2

The rest of the world seems to have gone all-in with vaccines and are now moving away from lockdowns. Why are China sticking to the lockdown route?

Their vaccination rate among elderly is quite low, their vaccine isn't as good as the main Western vaccines, and their hospital system in rural areas isn't very good. If/when COVID runs rampant they will have a lot of deaths. That's a particularly big problem given the upcoming Party congress where Xi will be crowned as dictator-for-life.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#22
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I've read they used the low quality Chinese vaccines and vaccination rates among over 60s were under 80%. if you're over 80 and you get COVID you're very likely to die if you're symptomatic.

China used the same Chinese vaccines as Hong Kong and according to ABC News in Australia only 62% of Shanghai residents over 60 have been vaccinated. This is fairly typical; Chinese policy was to focus on vaccinating people of working age. There have been multiple reported outbreaks at elderly care facilities in Shanghai recently. China is still reporting no Covid deaths. Now, a bunch of people have been complaining…

Actually Hong Kong vaccines were about half Pfizer and half Sinovac. The low vaccination rate is the main problem.

This article about reasons for that low vaccination rate is quite interesting: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#23

It’s bloody awful. From start to now it’s been a clown show. It seems like no one learned anything in the past two years except that medical staff are much better at treating COVID. Thus zero deaths with more than 13,000 positive infected. A large majority are asymptomatic.

Why did hong kong have such a high death rate?

A combination of the low vaccination rate among the elderly (only 50% or so among the 80+, and a lot of the vaccinated got Sinovac), which is inverted compared to Western countries where the rates are highest among the elderly, and the suppression of all previous waves (they had essentially 0% seroprevalence four months ago). In other countries, a lot of the deaths already occurred in 2020-2021. In Hong Kong, all of that was concentrated in the last 3 months.

Many of these factors are also at play in China, which partially explains their current policies. As for the currently reported 0 deaths in China, probably some statistical manipulation (if not outright fabrication) is at play. There is a lot of discretion as to what you count as a COVID-death.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#24
post #4
post #2

The rest of the world seems to have gone all-in with vaccines and are now moving away from lockdowns. Why are China sticking to the lockdown route?

Their vaccine is not very effective against omicron, and they have far less hospital beds per capita than the west. So a 'flatten the curve' strategy will cause a lot more deads than it has in Europe and the USA.

I don't think the number of deaths is the problem now but the speed at which they occur. If we assume about 0.2% death rate for China on average that would almost be 3 Million. Of those 1.5 Million would occur in 4 weeks (assuming speed is similar to Hong Kong and lower medical capacity). That's 50000 dead per day on average. Especially in the first half it's scary because the number just keep on rising to the sky with a peak of 100000 per day (or more? we don't know until they fall again).

The difference in effort between keeping that kind of curve flat and ZeroCovid is small. I would even assume that ZeroCovid is easier than flattening the curve. While ZeroCovid is not an exit strategy in some areas it works better while waiting for an effective vaccine or some other exit strategy. So presumably that's what they do right now.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#25
post #7

They dont seem to be able to organise a lockdown properly do they?

More to the point is that they care more about "zero covid" than other aspects of public welfare. The necessity of the lockdown for omicron, which is less deadly than previous variants, is dubious so if they are unable to properly organize a lockdown without unreasonably affecting welfare and livelihood, they should not have unless they do not care about them.

The Leninists have a history of human rights abuse and atrocities. It is always the party before the people. For example, in China's great famine, tens of millions died because of bad central planning and they want people to believe it was just a natural disaster. Also, Tiananmen Massacre. This is nothing new.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#26
Little weird to be talking about peopel starving and lacking meds, but then again they re able to find fresh fish. Anyway, i wonder what this pattern of isolatation can create in terms of covid variants which may develop in china or australia but which haven't been introduced to the rest of world this season.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did hong kong have such a high death rate?

From what I've read they used the low quality Chinese vaccines and vaccination rates among over 60s were under 80%. if you're over 80 and you get COVID you're very likely to die if you're symptomatic.

[deleted]

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#28
post #2

The rest of the world seems to have gone all-in with vaccines and are now moving away from lockdowns. Why are China sticking to the lockdown route?

Hong Kong had the highest death rate per capita globally in the last weeks when their containment policy failed. Leading to a mortality of over 0.1% in a short time. Hong Kong is a very rich area. Many other areas would fare much worse. The rest of the world is not "all-in" with vaccines. Vaccines are combined with waves of infection for the unvaccinated and vaccinated which lead to the death of 0.1% to 0.6% of the p…

61% of the deaths are of the elderly (> 70 yo) unvaccinated. 69% of the deaths are of the elderly (> 70 yo) with 0 or 1 vaccination doses. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7115e1.htm Table 2

The numbers you listed may seem scary at face value but viewed in the right context including compared to other mortality risks like flu and inhumane lockdown conditions where some people run out of food and other basic supplies or turn suicidal, the numbers do not support the conclusion that lockdown is the best way forward.

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