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Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#101

Post by onenukecourse »

mentalpiracy wrote: post #27
lambic2 wrote: post #20

I don't understand why she mentions "most of the world plants wheat in the fall" if, as far as I understand, Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring. Since 1) we're in the middle of their planting season 2) Ukraine produced 40 million tons of wheat last year 3) Given the current situation it's very hard to predict how much wheat will be successfully produced this year - It looks like the majority of farmers won't be…

If you read two tweets down the thread, she explains that Ukraine is a winter wheat producer. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and harvested in spring-summer. It has already been planted.

Why wouldn't Ukraine also plant a fall harvest crop? I thought Northern countries try to plant two crops per year. Countries like Argentina try to plant three.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#102

Post by leesec »

thepasswordis wrote: post #59
stevesimmons wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would your solution be? This is a serious question. Yes, sanctions hurt ordinary people. Yes, there are second order effects that will hurt many people in the developing world. But equally, giving in to Putin will create a bigger problem for Ukraine now, and for eastern Europe and Taiwan in future. There are no easy solutions here. Otherwise they would have been taken already.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…

Appeasing sycophantic maniacal warring leaders doesn't have a great track record, sorry.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#103

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mooreds wrote: post #4
ginko wrote: post #3

That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...

If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?

> What am I missing?

Logistics.

Food scarcity is a problem not of supply but of transport. More wheat in the American heartland doesn't help Egypt if every truck, ship and port is booked out for six months. More rice produced in India doesn't help if half of it rots en route to the city.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#104

Post by chewz »

ginko wrote: post #3

That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...

Egypt - arable land 2.9 pct (more or less constant from 1961). Population - 105 milion (1961 - 26 milion).

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/egypt-populat...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.ZS?location...

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#105

Post by JumpCrisscross »

nradov wrote: post #37
VLM wrote: post #7

The point is the economy is currently based on something hits the news, hoard hoard hoard, price explodes, empty shelves and high profits. Happened to TP a couple years ago and is in process with microcontroller chips and will be happening soon with food. People hear story on news, think there will be empty shelves, buy a multi-year supply of boxed Mac n Cheese, the shelves are indeed empty, more people think there w…

The difference is that unlike microchips, wheat can't be stored indefinitely. Eventually it rots. And reserve storage capacity is very limited; they have to make room for the next crop. The worldwide wheat market is huge and fragmented so no one can really corner the market through hoarding. An electronics manufacturer might not be able to easily substitute a '328 for another microcontroller, but an Egyptian baker ca…

> unlike microchips, wheat can't be stored indefinitely

I'm actually unsure which depreciates quicker: wheat or silicon? On one hand, wheat is perishable. On the other hand, silicon becomes obsolete.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#106

Post by JumpCrisscross »

alephnan wrote: post #82
cs702 wrote: post #78

A 1% decline in supply can have an enormous impact on price, because price is set at each instant by the marginal buyer and seller. For every 100 buyers (people) used to buying (eating) wheat every day, there is now only enough wheat for 99, on average. Wheat prices will therefore rise until 1 out of every 100 buyers cannot afford to buy their usual daily purchase of wheat. On average.

> marginal buyer and seller Yeah, but are end consumers actually buying wheat at the margin ?

> are end consumers actually buying wheat at the margin ?

Yes, everything transacts at the margin.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#107

Post by thepasswordis »

velcrohacker wrote: post #87
thepasswordis wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sets-ceasefire-... Of course the “denazification” thing is dropped. It was nonsense propaganda to begin with. I’m curious where you are following this? This was absolutely huge news at the beginning of this week. It’s really weird to me that wherever you are closely following this didn’t cover it.

Your source does not support your claims.

Yes it does. Read the entire article. Or if you don’t actually care, don’t. But please don’t spread misinformation like this.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#108

Post by KarlKemp »

jacobolus wrote: post #73
ineedasername wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What am I missing? Shifting suppliers on this scale in normal times isn't a quick process. Right now global logistics are still a complete & total mess. With great uncertainty, $cost becomes somewhat disconnected from supply. Right now futures are up about 40%. Availability won't mean much if it isn't affordable, and countries need to lock in supply because it's not really a JIT distribution system (see previous poi…

Grain is shipped in large specialized dry bulk cargo ships. It’s a lot closer to ship from Ukraine to, say, Egypt than to ship from Australia or Canada or even India. If you ship your grain N times farther, you need N times as many ships to make the same number of trips. Those ships don’t exist or can’t be mustered on short notice, so you have to use some other kind of (less-specialized, less efficient and more expen…

If anyone else is wondering, the largest ships carry 300,000 DTW, which is 300,000,000 kg each of which has 3400 kCal. Daily caloric intake of 2,000 may be suitable average, meaning that one ship can supply all energy needs for 1.5 million people and one year.

(3700 * 300000 * 1000) / (365 * 2000)

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#109

Post by onenukecourse »

velcrohacker wrote: post #85
thepasswordis wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…

Please provide a source. The last I heard was that Ukraine would agree not to join NATO if it were voted on by Ukraininians after the Russians withdrew completely. Oh, and the other condition is that other countries like the US will guarantee Ukraine's safety, in a framework remarkably similar to Article 5 of the NATO agreement. I have never, ever heard Ukraine agree that Donbas and Crimea would be annexed by Russia.

It doesn't matter what Ukraine wants vis a vis NATO. NATO states have publicly admitted they were egging the Ukrainians along with NATO membership. NATO doesn't want to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty. They couldn't care less about Ukraine.

NATO want to put missiles in Ukrainian and Georgian fields. Now that they've admitted that NATO's out of the question, why would Ukraine agree to make itself a target?

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#110

Post by thepasswordis »

leesec wrote: post #102
thepasswordis wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…

Appeasing sycophantic maniacal warring leaders doesn't have a great track record, sorry.

Exactly! And in 2014, when they were invaded, not only did we refuse to honor our obligations as outlined in the Budapest agreement, but we refused to even start sending them weapons to defend themselves until 2017!

And then in 2021, the sanctions put in place to keep them in check WRT nordstream2 were lifted!

The appeasement is exactly why we’re in the situation that we’re in: completely incompetent (at best) foreign policy appointees fumbling us into a potential global conflict.

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