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Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#81

Post by keneda7 »

jtbayly wrote: post #44
prostoalex wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it Are they? Fertilizer prices are up 3x-5x, depending on where you look, due to Russian export restrictions, so for many farmers it's cheaper to wait it out and give the soil a rest. Planting reports have only started trickling in, so we don't have a good global view of what has been planted in spring 2022.

Most wheat was planted 4 months ago, according to the author.

Contrary to what the US media and current US administration are saying, we had major issues before Russia invaded Ukraine. This idea that the Russia invasion is responsible for all these problems is ludicrous. Yes, it has made them worse but it is not the root cause. The fertilizer shortage was happening at the end of last year. You know the 4 months ago you quoted.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/25/fertiliz...

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#82

Post by alephnan »

cs702 wrote: post #78

A 1% decline in supply can have an enormous impact on price, because price is set at each instant by the marginal buyer and seller. For every 100 buyers (people) used to buying (eating) wheat every day, there is now only enough wheat for 99, on average. Wheat prices will therefore rise until 1 out of every 100 buyers cannot afford to buy their usual daily purchase of wheat. On average.

> marginal buyer and seller

Yeah, but are end consumers actually buying wheat at the margin ?

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#83

Post by thepasswordis »

Ancapistani wrote: post #70
thepasswordis wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…

> Ukraine is now offering that to Russia I've not been watching this as closely for the past week or two as I was previously, but I've not seen this. Particularly the "denazification" point seems unlikely to be agreed to by Ukraine. Do you have a source for this claim?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sets-ceasefire-...

Of course the “denazification” thing is dropped. It was nonsense propaganda to begin with.

I’m curious where you are following this? This was absolutely huge news at the beginning of this week. It’s really weird to me that wherever you are closely following this didn’t cover it.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#84

Post by gumby »

ginko wrote: post #3

That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...

It sure does and the article explains it (it’s a transport issue not a supply issue, as the growth in wheat production this year will exceed the shortfall).

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#85

Post by velcrohacker »

thepasswordis wrote: post #59
stevesimmons wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would your solution be? This is a serious question. Yes, sanctions hurt ordinary people. Yes, there are second order effects that will hurt many people in the developing world. But equally, giving in to Putin will create a bigger problem for Ukraine now, and for eastern Europe and Taiwan in future. There are no easy solutions here. Otherwise they would have been taken already.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…

Please provide a source. The last I heard was that Ukraine would agree not to join NATO if it were voted on by Ukraininians after the Russians withdrew completely. Oh, and the other condition is that other countries like the US will guarantee Ukraine's safety, in a framework remarkably similar to Article 5 of the NATO agreement. I have never, ever heard Ukraine agree that Donbas and Crimea would be annexed by Russia.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#86

Post by saiya-jin »

thepasswordis wrote: post #35

I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…

> Putin is a monster who has now killed (directly and indirectly) millions, and destroyed countries

Corrected that for ya.

I don't offer quick safe easy solutions to above issues. I don't think they exist. Don't vote for Trump-like populists effectively trying to sell rest of western world to Russia just because they are republicans just as you? Don't leave weak states at mercy of all-grabbing merciless powerful industries?

That's an empty phrase and wish too, there are reasons why Trump got voted in and almost won second time, he just said things too many people wanted to hear. I would say reasons of very polarized US society, you are either with us or against. As we can see ie in UK its not unique to vote populists in place even in countries with strong democracy.

I don't see what can be done more effectively in this multi-polar world to a bad state owning tons of nukes. Even if only 1% would be functional its still too many.

Or you want to ignore whats happening just to keep business going and prices steady? I don't think anybody in US government really cares about Ukraine or its people, but they are logically helping damage their adversary and Russia is working hard to give them moral/PR upper hand. But make no mistake, this war is about future of Europe, not just Ukraine. If Europe is split into pre-1989 order, US and its power projection will be severely weakened.

Have a hit squad taking down just Putin? Good luck there, I think as KGB agent he should have this covered. I think 1 billion USD and US citizenship & evac with family to anybody in his inner circle who would take him down would have higher chance. But maybe 10 years down the road it would be viewed as a very bad decision. You want to reform Russian society? I'd call that an impossible task for an external entity.

So, what's the solution to this situation?

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#87

Post by velcrohacker »

thepasswordis wrote: post #83
Ancapistani wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine is now offering that to Russia I've not been watching this as closely for the past week or two as I was previously, but I've not seen this. Particularly the "denazification" point seems unlikely to be agreed to by Ukraine. Do you have a source for this claim?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sets-ceasefire-... Of course the “denazification” thing is dropped. It was nonsense propaganda to begin with. I’m curious where you are following this? This was absolutely huge news at the beginning of this week. It’s really weird to me that wherever you are closely following this didn’t cover it.

Your source does not support your claims.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#88

Post by rr808 »

thepasswordis wrote: post #59
stevesimmons wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would your solution be? This is a serious question. Yes, sanctions hurt ordinary people. Yes, there are second order effects that will hurt many people in the developing world. But equally, giving in to Putin will create a bigger problem for Ukraine now, and for eastern Europe and Taiwan in future. There are no easy solutions here. Otherwise they would have been taken already.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…

The problem with agreeing to the original ask of giving up more land is that it just continues to escalate. in 2014 already Russia took Ukraine and a chunk of Eastern Ukraine. If you give up more this year, what happens in 10 years? Russia will just ask again. Its the same all around the Russian borders. Putin is a thug who just demands more for himself. If you dont fight him now you'll be doing it next year.

Here is a great thread about this (read to the end): https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503053699798769666 also https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503768312236421120

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#89

Post by saiya-jin »

thepasswordis wrote: post #83
Ancapistani wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine is now offering that to Russia I've not been watching this as closely for the past week or two as I was previously, but I've not seen this. Particularly the "denazification" point seems unlikely to be agreed to by Ukraine. Do you have a source for this claim?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sets-ceasefire-... Of course the “denazification” thing is dropped. It was nonsense propaganda to begin with. I’m curious where you are following this? This was absolutely huge news at the beginning of this week. It’s really weird to me that wherever you are closely following this didn’t cover it.

I don't get people like you - you are seriously contemplating what Putin's PR team announce on given day as some seriously meant opinion that's worth anything. When its exactly opposite, just empty words, full of lies, deceit and lack of anything meaningful. Spending any amount of energy on them is waste of time, next day will next round of demands.

You do realize that even if his demands would be met for some reason, there would be another and another round of demands till you have nothing and he has everything. Just random things I recall were mentioned by him/PR in last month - complete demilitarization of Ukraine (so you can defeat whole country with 2 tanks), demilitarization of whole Europe (hinting at his long-term ambitions).

Everybody in politics recognizes this and realizes that peace talks are sham, yet another set of lies. War will end exactly and only when he decides it, not a second earlier regardless of whats happening in Ukraine and rest of the world.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#90

Post by p1mrx »

webmaven wrote: post #55
Robotbeat wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trucks. Lots and lots of trucks.

Leaving aside the issue that trucks can't move stuff across oceans, how do you get the extra trucks to where they are needed?

Lots and lots of snorkel kits.
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