Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#2No post body was provided.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#3That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1]
[1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#4That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...
If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports?
What am I missing?
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#5While pointedly written, I’d like to see the rationale sustaining the wheat futures 30% rise.
Also, food shortages are largely man-made and ultra cost sensitive. The WHO was also sounding alarm bells… are all these people really one Twitter thread away from being wrong?
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#6That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...
If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?
Political will, removing subsidies for farmers, logistics of actually shipping wheat, climate change, etc.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#7The point is the economy is currently based on something hits the news, hoard hoard hoard, price explodes, empty shelves and high profits.
Happened to TP a couple years ago and is in process with microcontroller chips and will be happening soon with food.
People hear story on news, think there will be empty shelves, buy a multi-year supply of boxed Mac n Cheese, the shelves are indeed empty, more people think there will be more empty shelves, repeat.
I know a small time ham radio kit mfgr whom bragged about blowing the cost of a new house on a shipping pallet of '328 chips because he has to secure his supply chain if he wants to eat and everyone knows the shelves will soon be empty. Of course that has three effects: He has to store and finance a four year supply of chips, he total wiped the supply in his home country so nobody in that country can buy a '328, and he's stuck using a 2009-era chip until at minimum 2024, when his competitors will be shipping products based on early 2020's chips. On the positive side he gets to eat while competitors whom didn't hoard can't ship product. Of course the only reason there is a shortage is because he cornered the market before someone else did it.
I absolutely guarantee we have more than enough wheat to continue to set new record levels of obesity; while I also guarantee there will be empty food store shelves in the near future.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#8That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...
If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?
So spring wheat is harvested in the fall, and won't be planted for a little bit in the US, because it's just now starting to get to spring in many states. Winter wheat, which would be harvested this spring, should've been planted months ago.
So there's a gap in production, regardless of where they get their wheat from, I guess is what I'm trying to get at.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?
Political will, removing subsidies for farmers, logistics of actually shipping wheat, climate change, etc.
> Political will
Of who? Don't the farmers who grew extra wheat want to sell it? Or are you talking about governments preventing wheat exports (I know that has happened in the past).
> removing subsidies for farmers
Not sure how that is germane. What do you mean?
> logistics of actually shipping wheat
That's a great point! Shipping from the Black Sea ports to Egypt/other ME nations is surely cheaper than sending wheat from India/Aus/USA to those areas.
> climate change, etc.
Sure, that's a threat to wheat (and food in general) everywhere and will be for decades. Do you see it as particularly acute/relevant to the current situation? I don't.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?
So spring wheat is harvested in the fall, and won't be planted for a little bit in the US, because it's just now starting to get to spring in many states. Winter wheat, which would be harvested this spring, should've been planted months ago. So there's a gap in production, regardless of where they get their wheat from, I guess is what I'm trying to get at.
From the twitter thread:
> And the world's farmers already started planting more wheat 4 months ago, when wheat futures rose due to possibility of Black Sea conflict.
> India went all-out planting more wheat, looks set to continue a 3yr streak of rapidly increasing wheat exports. The US planted four MILLION more tons more wheat seed last fall than usual. Aus, Canada, Argentina, South Africa, even Brazil getting in on it.
The author's credentials: "I'm Sarah Taber, a crop scientist with 23 years in agriculture. I started out in field work at 14, put myself through crop school, and got a front-seat view of the dirty underbelly of the farm trade." https://www.patreon.com/user?u=5610560