Earlier quoted context omitted.
The difference is that unlike microchips, wheat can't be stored indefinitely. Eventually it rots. And reserve storage capacity is very limited; they have to make room for the next crop. The worldwide wheat market is huge and fragmented so no one can really corner the market through hoarding. An electronics manufacturer might not be able to easily substitute a '328 for another microcontroller, but an Egyptian baker ca…
Wheat properly stored keeps for at least thirty years without noticeable degradation[0]. I'm not sure how easy that is at scale, but on first glance it seems not impractical. [0] https://extension.usu.edu/preserve-the-harvest/research/stor...
Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
61–70 of 207 posts
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is ironic given they where the grain suppliers of ancient rome? [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cura_Annonae
Why is it no longer possible for Egypt to grow its own wheat?
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is ironic given they where the grain suppliers of ancient rome? [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cura_Annonae
Why is it no longer possible for Egypt to grow its own wheat?
Edit: there’s a great writeup about “hoop” style greenhouse farming there and how productive and water efficient it is… but the article escapes me presently
Edit2: ah! Here: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/30/dining/norwich-meadows-fa...
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
>this raises the question if the claim that "capitalism is the optimal way to allocate resources" is really true at least for the current version of capitalism. It is important to remember that economic supporters of markets don't claim that the markets are always rational in the short term. Corrections and irrational behavior expected.
Yes - but we're currently in a situation where irrationality absolutely dominates. (And it's not exactly short term)
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is ironic given they where the grain suppliers of ancient rome? [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cura_Annonae
Why is it no longer possible for Egypt to grow its own wheat?
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#66I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…
I'm the _last_ person to defend the actions of states, but I don't see an obvious way the "West" - meaning the US/NATO/Europe - could have responded in a way that avoided this once it began.
> I'm sorry to be so cynical about this, but it has been like watching a slow motion, unending train wreck see the last year of foreign policy nightmares coming out of The United States.
Sigh. After regretfully defending the actions of states, I now find myself in the same position with regard to Trump. Trump's foreign policy - as odious as many people found it at the time - seems to have been quite effective at promoting international stability. I'll point out that it was in place for less than four years, so it's a fair criticism to say that this may have been at most a short-term condition, but... we didn't face the real possibility of global thermonuclear war during that time.
> Our foreign policy laziness/ineptitude has led to a situation where the leader of a nuclear armed, hostile superpower (Russia) has two choices: win his war against the west, or die.
I'll take issue here. Russia's actions - specifically, Putin's actions - have lead to this choice. Putin committed Russia to a war that was obviously going to be uniformly denounced by the international community. The invasion of Ukraine was poorly planned, poorly supplied, and had no reasonable victory condition. It was predicated upon the rapid collapse of the Ukrainian state. There was no fallback plan for how to handle things if it didn't crumble in a matter of hours or days.
I can consider the argument that our foreign policy set up the preconditions to allow Putin to be so completely reliant upon his own biased perspective, but I really don't think that holds water. If his perception of the Ukrainian state and people were so far removed from reality, who is to say that his perceptions of our foreign policy wouldn't be similarly warped?
> these absolutely idiotic sanctions we are imposing on Russia will lead to none of our stated foreign policy goals, and only suffering for the poor.
I disagree here.
The sanctions will lead to moving toward our FP goals and suffering of the poor.
We don't like to be so blunt about it, but the fact is that the very intent of sanctions are to cause people who are otherwise uninvolved to suffer. The idea is that those uninvolved people will then be incentivized to _become_ involved, disrupting the political and economic support of the target.
In other words... the purpose of these sanctions is to cause suffering among the Russian people, which in turn will make it more difficult for the Russian state to pursue military action. Given time, sanctions can even ignite revolution.
Finally: you're 100% correct to say that Putin has no good options at this point. "Win or die". Sanctions, long term, will ratchet that pressure up further and further until he is forced to make a choice. Forcing Putin to decide between losing and taking everything else down with him may not be in the best interests of the world...
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#67I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…
Gee and here I thought it was Putin who was dropping bombs. It's inconceivable he could just stop doing that? And go back to doing business peaceably? It's not "Win or Die" for Russia. Anything but. It's one man's ego, and even Russians recognize that. To assume only the US has any agency and only US actions make a difference, inevitably results in "The US is at fault for everything"
Perhaps it's not "win or die" for Russia, but it is for Putin.
If you asked the average Russian on the street, they would probably agree that those are separate entities. If you asked Putin, I suspect you'd get a different answer.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#68That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...
If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?
Shifting suppliers on this scale in normal times isn't a quick process. Right now global logistics are still a complete & total mess.
With great uncertainty, $cost becomes somewhat disconnected from supply. Right now futures are up about 40%. Availability won't mean much if it isn't affordable, and countries need to lock in supply because it's not really a JIT distribution system (see previous point on logistics). If the war has disrupted your deliveries 3 months out, you need to lock in new contracts now (if not 3 months ago) to keep supply moving.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#69I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…
Gee and here I thought it was Putin who was dropping bombs. It's inconceivable he could just stop doing that? And go back to doing business peaceably? It's not "Win or Die" for Russia. Anything but. It's one man's ego, and even Russians recognize that. To assume only the US has any agency and only US actions make a difference, inevitably results in "The US is at fault for everything"
It took the US more that 8 years to retreat from Iraq, and you're asking a poor country to do such thing immediatly?
The genie is out of the bottle, I don't think the west will suddenly drop all sanctions, pretend nothing happened, and resume business even if such never-seen-in-history retreat happens.
Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
What would your solution be? This is a serious question. Yes, sanctions hurt ordinary people. Yes, there are second order effects that will hurt many people in the developing world. But equally, giving in to Putin will create a bigger problem for Ukraine now, and for eastern Europe and Taiwan in future. There are no easy solutions here. Otherwise they would have been taken already.
The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…
I've not been watching this as closely for the past week or two as I was previously, but I've not seen this. Particularly the "denazification" point seems unlikely to be agreed to by Ukraine.
Do you have a source for this claim?