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Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#51

Post by JasonFruit »

nradov wrote: post #37
VLM wrote: post #7

The point is the economy is currently based on something hits the news, hoard hoard hoard, price explodes, empty shelves and high profits. Happened to TP a couple years ago and is in process with microcontroller chips and will be happening soon with food. People hear story on news, think there will be empty shelves, buy a multi-year supply of boxed Mac n Cheese, the shelves are indeed empty, more people think there w…

The difference is that unlike microchips, wheat can't be stored indefinitely. Eventually it rots. And reserve storage capacity is very limited; they have to make room for the next crop. The worldwide wheat market is huge and fragmented so no one can really corner the market through hoarding. An electronics manufacturer might not be able to easily substitute a '328 for another microcontroller, but an Egyptian baker ca…

Wheat properly stored keeps for at least thirty years without noticeable degradation[0]. I'm not sure how easy that is at scale, but on first glance it seems not impractical.

[0] https://extension.usu.edu/preserve-the-harvest/research/stor...

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#52

Post by groby_b »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #38
groby_b wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The point is the economy is currently based on something hits the news, hoard hoard hoard, price explodes, empty shelves and high profits. Given that that extends well beyond individual behaviour (Wheat futures[1] are currently bonkers), this raises the question if the claim that "capitalism is the optimal way to allocate resources" is really true at least for the current version of capitalism. This extends well be…

>this raises the question if the claim that "capitalism is the optimal way to allocate resources" is really true at least for the current version of capitalism. It is important to remember that economic supporters of markets don't claim that the markets are always rational in the short term. Corrections and irrational behavior expected.

Yes - but we're currently in a situation where irrationality absolutely dominates. (And it's not exactly short term)

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#53

Post by Stevvo »

VLM wrote: post #7

The point is the economy is currently based on something hits the news, hoard hoard hoard, price explodes, empty shelves and high profits. Happened to TP a couple years ago and is in process with microcontroller chips and will be happening soon with food. People hear story on news, think there will be empty shelves, buy a multi-year supply of boxed Mac n Cheese, the shelves are indeed empty, more people think there w…

Absolutely, and it's not just limited to wheat; prices are up across the board even in industries with very little presence in Ukraine or Russia.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#54

Post by ineedasername »

(TL;DR of the following points: Global Supply != Global Availability)

This analysis misses the real issue by focusing merely on global supply rather than the entire system. I'm also not sure of the accuracy of some estimates, that could be fog-of-war, but while the USDA is estimating 7M ton shortfall in exports, Ukraine exports about 24M tons annually [1] and has banned all exports of wheat & other food staples. [2] They've already shipped some grain this year, but the longer this conflict continues, the worse the problem will get.

Maybe that doesn't yet change the overall global supply picture too much, but the author is not taking into account three very important aspects of this

1) Countries that have imported significant portions of their grains from Ukraine will be hit extremely hard by this. It's not much comfort to a country like Egypt that imports a significant amount of its food, a lot of that from Ukraine & Russia, to say "Oh but the global supply is barely reduced!". Contracts & import logistics of this magnitude don't turn on a dime, and there are undoubtedly logistical issues that make Egypt import from its current suppliers rather than another major exporter like the US.

2) During times of great uncertainly, global supply becomes somewhat disconnected from $cost. In terms of food availability, especially in poorer countries or to poorer people in somewhat wealthier countries, it's really not relevant that global supply is up or down a few points when the current price of wheat futures is up 40%. Absent significant intervention (such as subsidies) lots of people are going to go hungry.

3) It's worth noting global logistics separate from #1 above. In normal times pivoting quickly in this way would be difficult. Right now? Global logistics are still an absolute mess. It looks like bottlenecks are marginally better in places like SoCal, but there are shortages of a) ships b) shipping containers c) warehouse space d) trucking/drivers e) probably more. This will not only further complicate shifting to different suppliers, but also drive the end-point $cost higher than just the increase for the grain itself.

[1] https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/02/a-closer-look-at...

[2] https://time.com/6156160/ukraine-bans-wheat-exports/

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#55

Post by webmaven »

Robotbeat wrote: post #49
bell-cot wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the shortages are in rail lines, grain elevators, shipping terminals, bulk cargo ships, etc...no sort of "support" can create those at all quickly.

Trucks. Lots and lots of trucks.

Leaving aside the issue that trucks can't move stuff across oceans, how do you get the extra trucks to where they are needed?

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#56

Post by randomdata »

anonAndOn wrote: post #47
mentalpiracy wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read two tweets down the thread, she explains that Ukraine is a winter wheat producer. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and harvested in spring-summer. It has already been planted.

> Ukraine plants their wheat in the spring This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat. So the shortfall is not in winter wheat, but in the types planted right now.

> This aligns with every single combat photo I've seen thus far. I don't think I've seen one field of winter wheat.

1. How many photos from the war have you seen of farmland? It's not exactly the prime battleground.

2. We can assume that you can recognize winter wheat at this stage from photos not focused on the crop? It, of course, looks like someone's dead lawn when it first emerges from it's winter rest. Hard to differentiate from any other grassy area unless the photo has a lot of detail.

On that note, I started looking at some random pictures after I read your comment. I came across this one[1] of a field. Wheat or no in your opinion? In my opinion as a winter wheat grower: I have no idea. Maybe.

[1] https://asianatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/XFXJX6VK3...

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#57

Post by dustymcp »

ginko wrote: post #3

That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...

That is ironic given they where the grain suppliers of ancient rome? [1]

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cura_Annonae

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#59

Post by thepasswordis »

stevesimmons wrote: post #43
thepasswordis wrote: post #35

I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…

What would your solution be? This is a serious question. Yes, sanctions hurt ordinary people. Yes, there are second order effects that will hurt many people in the developing world. But equally, giving in to Putin will create a bigger problem for Ukraine now, and for eastern Europe and Taiwan in future. There are no easy solutions here. Otherwise they would have been taken already.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to.

Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that turning a nuclear superpower into an isolationist state, and actively working to collapse their economy, is a suicidally stupid thing, also be listens to.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#60

Post by xbar »

dustymcp wrote: post #57
ginko wrote: post #3

That's nice and all but it doesn't really help countries like Egypt that import over 60% of the wheat they consume.[1] [1] https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-se...

That is ironic given they where the grain suppliers of ancient rome? [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cura_Annonae

Why is it no longer possible for Egypt to grow its own wheat?
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