Crypto is an unproductive bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#461

Post by benreesman » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 3:16 PM UTC

jhatemyjob wrote: post #260

benreesman wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all heroes wear capes. :)

I like how I had 6 upvotes, then the lemmings started regurgitating pro-Rust propaganda in the replies, and now I'm at 0.

Your comment is fucking perfect, clearly exaggerated for effect, and while I sometimes fail, I personally try to rein in my friggin Aspergers enough to not get precious about shit like that.

You sir, are the apex predator of subtle HN trolling. (The guy with the collider thing above is hot on your heels).

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#462

Post by trapatsas » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 3:20 PM UTC

The idea that crypto is dead is older than crypto: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#463

Post by gonehome » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 3:22 PM UTC

cableshaft wrote: post #428

randomhodler84 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prove it. There are other 2009 era bitcoiners here who can vouch if you were there. The community was known in 2009. My x to doubt is because nobody claims to have “been in blockchain since 2008” it’s a give away that your talking trash. The Genesis block date was Jan 3rd 2009. You were talking to satoshi about Bitcoin pre launch?

The community was not fully known back then (at least not in 2009, post-launch). It was possible to play around with the bitcoin wallet software back then, let it mine some coins from your desktop, and read the bitcointalk forum but not post on the forums or trade whatever you mined until it was worth a few bucks a bit later. I was one of those people (might have been early 2010 for me though, can't quite remember wh…

This largely matches my experience fwiw - I was in college in 2010 and didn’t have much money (and coins were harder to buy back then too, mining was still not super easy without a gpu rig).

I thought the tech was cool, but never owned any real amount and didn’t really have an understanding of why there might be long term value.

There was Bitcoin faucet which used to give out some free - I think that was how I got some tiny amount in my first wallet that I eventually lost when I wiped the laptop for sale.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#464

Post by randomhodler84 » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 3:31 PM UTC

nl wrote: post #412

randomhodler84 wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was being rude. I am sorry for making a bad assumption about that. I’m not familiar with that one. I am pretty much a BTC maxi.

> I’m not familiar with that one. I am pretty much a BTC maxi. Wait.. you are being critical of me and you are stuck on BTC? To put it simply, people who BTC Maxis in 2022 are like those people on HN at the Facebook IPO who didn't understand why it was profitable.

I still don’t get why Facebook is profitable. I’ve never used their products and never will.

Screw Meta.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#465

Post by cf141q5325 » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 3:39 PM UTC

Tijdreiziger wrote: post #405

cf141q5325 wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IF you enter. There is the choice that is lacking is this case. Without the choice there is no contract, just the force. And if it were consensus you wouldnt have to force it. Both "contract" and "consensus" are nice frames for forcing people to do what you think is right. At least be honest about it.

If enough members of society disagree with the terms of the contract, they may vote in representatives who change those terms, or alternatively they may revolt and install new representatives that way (see e.g. the French Revolution, American Revolution or Arab Spring). If you instead hold the view that _every single individual_ should be able to opt out of the contract (i.e. should be able to choose not to be subjec…

You just gave me your story again, you being able to repeat it has nothing to do with QED.

For the individual there is no contract and no consensus, you just said so. For the individual its do as you are told at the threat of violence.

Differently put, you just repeated a story which with you justify forcing other individuals around.

You not liking this framing doesnt change that.

edit: I am not repeating myself for fun here. Once we agree that your "consensus based societal contract" is code for "forcing other individuals to do as you tell them at the threat of force", we can look at what anarchists actually say and how much better of a story they have.

How much better is "being born into an involuntary "contract" that dictates your actions at the threat of violence" described as slavery vs "consensual contract"?

All completely unrelated to the implications. Facts generally dont care for implications. You not wanting to hear them dont make them go away.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#466

Post by gonehome » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 3:48 PM UTC

lottin wrote: post #386

i_like_waiting wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats because nobody refutes those points. Yes, transactions in crypto are irreversible. It might be bad for those number of factors. But even given those cons we see benefits in things mentioned above. E.g. my colleague can send bitcoin to his brother in russia. Tell me what other options to transfer value there are at the moment between west and russia. Very similar for ukraine.

If the "benefit" is that crypto-currencies allow people to evade laws, well... that's probably true, it's just not a great selling point if you're aiming for mainstream adoption. Especially considering that, for everything else other than evading the law, a standard currency would be more practical than a crypto-currency. And this addressed in the article, it's one of the predictions: "cryptocurrency adoption will be…

Retaining more individual capability does allow people to commit crimes (though in the public ledger case this is often a stupid idea if you stay in the jurisdiction where what you’re doing is a crime).

Not all governments are good, not all laws are just. It’s easy to roll eyes at this in the west, but a lot of countries in the world are lead by bad people acting in their own self-interest.

The other bit you get from Bitcoin at least is programmatic guarantees of supply. This protects you from increases in supply inflating your savings away. It makes it a better store of value than fiat.

A standard currency is not always available. The same is true for safe financial systems. This is more relevant for people trying to save in places like Venezuela. Crypto provides new capabilities that may be your best option.

If one potential future is authoritarian governments leveraging total control on their citizens financial transactions via centralized financial systems (what the ccp is trying to build) - crypto is a technology that provides a relief valve from that. It’s a good thing it exists imo.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#467

Post by tootie » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 3:49 PM UTC

newacc9 wrote: post #265

tootie wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero what? Zero purchasing power? No, it is not.

Talk to any 70 year old, they'll say $100 was a lot of money in those days. At 7 pct inflation your pp will get cut in half in 10 years, but im being pedantic since this is obvious to everyone.

So what? That is, like I said, 100% by design. In order for currency to be useful as a currency, it should inflate gradually. We're slightly high right now and were even higher for a while 40 years ago, but in neither case has the system broken. Sellers and employers know what to expect and how to pace prices and wages in a sensible way to keep pace. When the system starts to buckle, policy makers have mechanisms to fix it and they have. Bitcoin fluctuates wildly and its price is 100% speculative. It is neither backed by commodities (ie gold standard), by promise of dividend, by equity, nor by the "full faith and credit" of a nation. It's pure supply and demand where supply is arbitrary and demand is 100% elastic and could drop to zero at any time for any reason. Consider the recent pandemic where GDP contracted at an apocalyptic rate for a few quarters and yet policy makers were able to bail out both employers and workers with the help of massive fiat monetary assistance. Poverty actually decreased in the US during the pandemic.

What would that 70 year old say if they bought a house 10 years ago for 400 BTC and solid it today for 5? On the flip side, someone working for BTC 10 years ago might have expected a salary 50 BTC a year and someone being hired today might be 1 BTC a year. Is that a better situation? While the price per coin skyrockets, the only sensible position is to hoard it and never spend or invest anything. That would be a disaster.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#468

Post by gonehome » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:03 PM UTC

lern_too_spel wrote: post #379

gonehome wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, a lot of this assumes you get out of Canada at that point. Just like the people fleeing Russia or Ukraine. The thing crypto gives you is the capability to get your wealth out intact (at least whatever you had moved into self-custody). If you have fiat in banks frozen by the Canadian government your wealth is trapped. You’re right if Canada banned Bitcoin it could influence the value of the coin. Similar to gove…

I wasn't discussing the case of Canada banning Bitcoin but of Canada sanctioning the truckers' wallets. Wherever the truckers go, their Bitcoins would no longer be allowed on Canadian exchanges. The fiat equivalent would be moving money to an overseas account. Before you are sanctioned, doing so is just as easy as buying Bitcoin. After you are sanctioned, both are equally hard. The difference is that your Bitcoins ca…

It’s not as easy to move money to an overseas account as it is to buy Bitcoin.

Your money on that account is still being trusted to some authority and your guarantees on it are limited.

The real fiat equivalent would be moving all your wealth into cash first (literally physical bills in your house), which is obviously worse and harder to move.

Your bitcoins cannot also be demonetized any differently than fiat. It’s similar to sanctions on rubles. Both types of value are vulnerable to government bans affecting the price. The difference is with crypto and self-custody you can transact privately despite that (similarly to if you held cash, but holding lots of cash is again harder and more vulnerable to a single government’s stupidity).

If your dollars in a bank are frozen you can’t transact at all. Your self-custody BTC can’t be frozen on the blockchain, you retain a lot more ability to transact globally.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#469

Post by newacc9 » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:12 PM UTC

tootie wrote: post #467

newacc9 wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talk to any 70 year old, they'll say $100 was a lot of money in those days. At 7 pct inflation your pp will get cut in half in 10 years, but im being pedantic since this is obvious to everyone.

So what? That is, like I said, 100% by design. In order for currency to be useful as a currency, it should inflate gradually. We're slightly high right now and were even higher for a while 40 years ago, but in neither case has the system broken. Sellers and employers know what to expect and how to pace prices and wages in a sensible way to keep pace. When the system starts to buckle, policy makers have mechanisms to…

QE creates inequality via asset bubble inflation (those without assets are on the losing end), there's a housing crisis because housing (and now commodities) is used as a store-of-value. The Petro-dollar system is not ESG friendly and it is coming to and end: China is no longer buying treasuries, Saudi is willing to price oil in Yuan, and the West is seizing Russian reserves. Your faith in the dollar system seems unphased by macro events. When the price of coins skyrockets, its better to hold, but people still need to live, so they still spend money.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#470

Post by samtho » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:18 PM UTC

fb03 wrote: post #397

samtho wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wild fluctuations in price, even if the average stays the same, is what enables returns here, not the rise of value over time. I have a bot that trade on the highs and lows of the day, and it can make an absurd amount of money. Also, buying very large quantities of fringe alt coins at millionths of a dollar each can pay off if the coin ends up rising in popularity and price. I do a few moon shots each year and ca…

Did you code the stuff yourself? How did you start? I am looking forward to writing my own stuff. I found that some exchanges like OKX/OKEX have APIs that allow you to algorithmically trade.

I was using a smaller exchange’s API but now I use alpaca.markets. I wrote the program in Node.js that just runs a callback function every N second interval and decides if it’s a good time to buy, sell, or do nothing.

My best advice to getting started is write your trading algorithm or decision making logic in a parameterized way so you can feed in snapshots of time for back testing. I’m sure there are frameworks out there but I literally wrote this hot garbage in a weekend with not a lot of research. I’ll probably rewrite it someday and optimize it a bit more.