Crypto is an unproductive bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#331

Post by cf141q5325 » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:21 AM UTC

Tijdreiziger wrote: post #285

cf141q5325 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just repeated the wording of your story while ignoring my post entirely. 1) Contract implies consenting parties. Using the word in another capacity is a frame. It being a popular one doesnt change that. 2) Your actions entailing a lot more then just your declared intentions. As in your definition of harmful being quite broad. Or differently put, you have a story which with you justify forcing people around.

Any contract must be backed up by force, or else it’s meaningless. As an example, if you enter into a legal contract, that contract is backed up by the threat of litigation (and by extension, force). If it weren’t, there wouldn’t be any incentive to obey it. And yes, I do believe that the consensus is that activities with an outsized climate impact are harmful.

IF you enter. There is the choice that is lacking is this case. Without the choice there is no contract, just the force.

And if it were consensus you wouldnt have to force it.

Both "contract" and "consensus" are nice frames for forcing people to do what you think is right. At least be honest about it.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#332

Post by effancy » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:22 AM UTC

stewbrew wrote: post #329

Not convinced. I think we are still in a rather early phase of the hype cycle where people explore possible uses of the technology. What makes it difficult to think about "crypto" is a certain disillusionment around Bitcoin and similar efforts and the fact that people think the ideology behind Bitcoin etc. should also apply to all other possible uses. But they are confusing crypto in general with a certain applicatio…

Good luck with your investment, you will need it. #wallstreetbets

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#333

Post by OgAstorga » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:23 AM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #229

If it's a bubble, it's a pretty lousy one in terms of returns. Some energy stocks were up 100-1000% a week ago due to surging oil prices. And then some SPACs were up 500%. Some guy on reddit's wallstreetbets recently turned $17k into $600k with amazon call options. I never seen anyone make those kind of returns with crypto...just guys with tiny Binance or Coinbase accounts who are happy to make 20% from a $1000 initi…

I don’t think you understand what “one guy turning $17k into $600k with Amazon call options” means.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#334

Post by anm89 » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:24 AM UTC

Of all the things to debate on the internet, this seems like one of the most disingenuous. There are active markets. You can very wasily short or long it. There's no reason to yell into the void. Just go take your position and move on.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#335

Post by tippytippytango » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:24 AM UTC

effancy wrote: post #325

tippytippytango wrote: post #319

Nothing in here that hasn't been said in the last 10 year. It's tempting to dismiss it as a bubble. But; most bubbles don't get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th... etc. chances. Every time bitcoin crashes people say "this one is different, this time it's dead for real", then it bounces back. It's proving to be far more cockroach like than anyone anticipated. In the more distant future, if bitcoin survives, its utility will just be…

Keep on dreaming. The reason why he has no new arguments is that the case is clear and simple.

Just staying open to the bull and bear case. None of us really know the future.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#336

Post by skybrian » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:24 AM UTC

grog454 wrote: post #299

jmcgough wrote: post #19

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

Credit card charges for businesses can be considered a marketing expense. Marketing expenses are paid to convince people to do business with you. While some consumers just use credit cards routinely for transactions, others participate in incentive programs (like getting cash back).

Even for people who don't care about the credit card incentive programs, the feeling that the credit card company will take your side in a dispute is itself an incentive to do business with companies you don't know very well.

Consider a traveller shopping in a foreign city, or someone buying things from unknown third parties via Amazon, or buying an app from an unknown vendor in an app store. The customer gets certain reassurances from the credit card / Amazon / app store vendor that certain scams are less likely, though not eliminated. And if you do get a counterfeit you might be able to get a refund just because you say you deserve one.

Yes, ultimately the money comes from consumers, but the same is true of advertising and every other business expense. As a consumer you can often get a discount if you shop places with low overhead and pay with cash, but with perhaps somewhat less assurance that you're not getting ripped off.

Fraud prevention isn't free. The police do some of it, but maybe you want more protection than that?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#337

Post by pavlov » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:27 AM UTC

Osiris wrote: post #320

pavlov wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU created and deployed instant zero-cost 24/7 bank transfers while crypto was twiddling its thumbs talking about “early days” and puffing out PoW carbon. If even the European Union moves faster than your cutting-edge decentralized system, maybe you have a problem.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion. Of course the two approaches will be different.

TCP/IP was standardized in 1983. Nine years later I had an email address. Two years later I had full IP access (telnet, Usenet, ftp, web). I never stopped using it, even though specific protocols like ftp faded away.

In contrast, I bought some cryptos five years ago and dabbled in Solidity too, but there was just nothing to do with it because it’s so clunky and wasteful. I don’t expect to ever touch that stuff again.

That’s obviously anecdotal, but it’s clear by now it’s nothing like the early Internet. That organic buy-in isn’t happening.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#338

Post by fhe » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:27 AM UTC

wraptile wrote: post #309

pavlov wrote: post #302

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure…

You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems…

"Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption"

I don't see why that's self-evident. Decentralized applications get fast and wide adoption all the time, e.g. Napster.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#339

Post by webkike » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:28 AM UTC

wraptile wrote: post #309

pavlov wrote: post #302

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure…

You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems…

You can’t say a social network is objectively better when all of the people you consider to be cool don’t use it.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#340

Post by vel0city » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:29 AM UTC

grog454 wrote: post #322

vel0city wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So your alternative of the fraud insurance we currently have is to just end fraud? You sound like Gov. Abbott. Don't worry about abortion in the case of rape, we'll just get rid of rape. Why didn't we just think of that before? Just get rid of crime, and there won't be any problems!

> So your alternative of the fraud insurance we currently have is to just end fraud? I left that little blurb about reducing fraud at the end of that post because I was trying to anticipate the (shallow) counter-argument: "what's the alternative"? "End"ing fraud, by the way, would be a great alternative to the implicit insurance premium we pay if it was at all viable. To give you some examples of what "more effort in…

And we could just eliminate rape if we tried harder, obviously. Why hasn't Abbott eliminated rape in Texas yet?!

Look, I agree we should try harder to reduce crime. But arguing having insurance against fraud is bad and we should instead just try to get rid of crime seems incredibly naive. Sure, there are things which could potentially be done to help reduce fraud, but there will still be fraud. In which case the value from the insurance is still >0 for the victims of said fraud. And a ton of Americans will still be a victim of fraud even if we try harder with technology available today. If we were to move to all Blockchain transactions, those people would have no recourse.