Crypto is an unproductive bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#381

Post by mvkel » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:33 AM UTC

wraptile wrote: post #309

pavlov wrote: post #302

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure…

You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems…

Decentralized systems, like the internet?

It was pretty damn big after it was 13 years old.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#382

Post by maccolgan » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:35 AM UTC

blep-arsh wrote: post #277

roenxi wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, note that "take their stuff through extra-legal means" has become an uncomfortably common strategy in the west. Things like asset forfeiture, debanking in a myriad of forms, increased government intervention in financial systems, changing the rules suddenly every time a totally forseeable at some point financial crisis comes up (there is one every 10-15 years! they aren't surprises). It is completely reasonable…

Just for example, cryptocurrencies appear to be the best option if one wants to leave Russia with their savings at this point.

Also for entering it. We really need more neutral technologies.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#383

Post by alexb_ » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:35 AM UTC

javchz wrote: post #94

One of my big issues with (legit) Crypto it's UX VS Decentralization. The easiest way for the regular Joe to use crypto it's with an exchange... that it's basically, just a centralized institution making changes in a private database for when transactions are made inside the exchange. Only if the user wants to send money to a wallet the transaction enters into the blockchain, outside of that it's like a bank... witho…

It's the exact same problem with Email. Email is "decentralized" but most people would rather use a central website and give up their info.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#384

Post by oceanplexian » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:37 AM UTC

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #206

i_like_waiting wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats because nobody refutes those points. Yes, transactions in crypto are irreversible. It might be bad for those number of factors. But even given those cons we see benefits in things mentioned above. E.g. my colleague can send bitcoin to his brother in russia. Tell me what other options to transfer value there are at the moment between west and russia. Very similar for ukraine.

Is it really your selling point that crypto is good because Russians can wage war while circumventing sanctions? The whole point of sanctions is to pressure bad actors to change. You've invented a technology that allows them to continue doing evil? Hurrah?

> The whole point of sanctions is to pressure bad actors to change.

This argument seems completely non-sensical to me.

Western governments have been arguing for 3+ decades that we do business with countries like China because integrating them into the global economic system will encourage them to change. But now we're making the same argument that we need to expel Russia from the global economic system because it will encourage them to change. What? At least crypto doesn't flip-flop on what it's moral or ethical purpose is. It's just a tool and an exchange of value, not a weapon.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#385

Post by randomhodler84 » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:38 AM UTC

nl wrote: post #375

randomhodler84 wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I object to is any doubt that today it is unsafe for anyone to self custody given the appropriate operational security. A hardware wallet is probably sufficient for nearly all cases of even non technical user. Where people go wrong these days is a) phished [education, instruct never never type those words into the computer…] b) tricked approvals [just don’t mess with eth until you know what you are doing. You wi…

> "I was there at the start but I still don’t really get why…” Where do you get that? I understand the reasoning entirely. I disagree that it is important or that the security trade off is appropriate for almost anyone.

It’s the entire point. This is basically the entire purpose and meaning behind satoshis invention. It’s the first sentence on the first page of the white paper:

“A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution“

Nah, who needs it???

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#386

Post by lottin » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:41 AM UTC

i_like_waiting wrote: post #124

jmull wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is typical crypto-hype. Notice that although many points are raised, it doesn’t address the direct objections of the previous post. Obfuscate, misdirect, and confuse the marks.

Thats because nobody refutes those points. Yes, transactions in crypto are irreversible. It might be bad for those number of factors. But even given those cons we see benefits in things mentioned above. E.g. my colleague can send bitcoin to his brother in russia. Tell me what other options to transfer value there are at the moment between west and russia. Very similar for ukraine.

If the "benefit" is that crypto-currencies allow people to evade laws, well... that's probably true, it's just not a great selling point if you're aiming for mainstream adoption. Especially considering that, for everything else other than evading the law, a standard currency would be more practical than a crypto-currency. And this addressed in the article, it's one of the predictions: "cryptocurrency adoption will be limited to marginal use cases where fiat currency is impractical, e.g. online black-market transactions".

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#387

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:46 AM UTC

lern_too_spel wrote: post #192

gonehome wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s only true if you must transact in fiat. It’s mostly true today, may be less true in a future with this kind of restriction on on-ramps and off-ramps. Even so, it’d have to be a global restriction on all exchanges which is more challenging to coordinate.

If your tokens become valueless to other Canadians, other Canadians won't accept them. Non-Canadians who trade with Canadians won't accept them because they can't trade them with Canadians. The value goes to zero by induction.

[deleted]

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#388

Post by danShumway » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:53 AM UTC

cf141q5325 wrote: post #355

danShumway wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All currencies are dependent on being spendable. Right, and the issue here is that Bitcoin is not spendable without first being converted to a better currency that normal merchants like your grocer will accept. That's Bitcoin's weak point, you clamp down on exchanges and suddenly it can't be used with most merchants. > Involuntary adaptation historically leads to drastic inflation with the trust in the purchasing p…

I can buy drugs and apparently some food deliveries. I get your point but thats just a question of adaptation. To the other point, i described the mechanism of adaptation. If the current mechanism of transfer stops working people historically fall back to anything else that works. They have to use something, trade must go on so they choose the next best thing till something better emerges. The involuntary pressure on…

> I can buy drugs and apparently some food deliveries.

It's not completely clear to me that Bitcoin would even work for drugs or ransomware if those people weren't then converting Bitcoin into local currencies. This argument really undervalues the role that exchanges play in this process. I can earn a dollar, spend it on something, and the person I give it to as payment can spend that same dollar somewhere else. It never really needs to be converted. Sure I can convert that to other currencies if I want or if I'm trying to bridge the gap between economies in different countries, but importantly there's a rather large section of the economy that works just with dollars.

That's not really what's happening with Bitcoin even on the drug market. People pay Bitcoin for drugs, that gets mixed up to try and preserve anonymity, and then it gets cashed out into other currencies.

> To the other point, i described the mechanism of adaptation. If the current mechanism of transfer stops working people historically fall back to anything else that works.

It seems odd to simultaneously say that Bitcoin will be adopted because people won't have any other options (not because they like how it works), and also that people needing to use currencies that they don't trust leads to inflation and economic harm. Do you expect drastic inflation to happen if Bitcoin becomes the only viable currency for people to use?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#389

Post by nrr » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:57 AM UTC

omeze wrote: post #357

pavlov wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TCP/IP was standardized in 1983. Nine years later I had an email address. Two years later I had full IP access (telnet, Usenet, ftp, web). I never stopped using it, even though specific protocols like ftp faded away. In contrast, I bought some cryptos five years ago and dabbled in Solidity too, but there was just nothing to do with it because it’s so clunky and wasteful. I don’t expect to ever touch that stuff again.…

I understand your argument but it’s disingenuous to say TCP started in 83. It was widely published in 74 with implementations in 75.

Forgive me, but I think you misread my grandparent comment's intended meaning. The assertion was that TCP/IP was standardized in 1983, and this is, in fact, technically correct. The unwritten subtext was that TCP/IP was standardized as the protocol in use on ARPANET, with the cutover from NCP to be concluded on 1 January 1983.

"It is really very important for everyone to notice the deadline for completing the cutover to IP/TCP and the elimination of NCP from use in the ARPANET." https://groups.google.com/g/fa.tcp-ip/c/HDoq18adT2Y/m/HwoFGx...

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#390

Post by nurettin » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 5:58 AM UTC

volkse wrote: post #374

Osiris wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion. Of course the two approaches will be different.

I can’t understand how anyone has any confidence in crypto after the current Ukraine/Russia situation. I thought that crypto was decentralized and no-one could place restrictions on who could own it, and what they could do with it. This also turned out to be total BS as Russian crypto accounts keep getting frozen. Funnily enough, I haven’t heard the “crypto community” make a single peep about this. Hilarious..

What I understand is that Hardware wallets cannot be "frozen", but they are much harder to maintain than an online account you can log into with a single click, so people prefer that.