Crypto is an unproductive bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#311

Post by pavlov » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:06 AM UTC

wraptile wrote: post #309

pavlov wrote: post #302

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure…

You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems…

The EU created and deployed instant zero-cost 24/7 bank transfers while crypto was twiddling its thumbs talking about “early days” and puffing out PoW carbon.

If even the European Union moves faster than your cutting-edge decentralized system, maybe you have a problem.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#312

Post by onion2k » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:06 AM UTC

grog454 wrote: post #299

jmcgough wrote: post #19

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

One way to look at credit card fees is as a form of insurance. They're a bit annoying, and most of the time you'd rather not pay them, but as with most insurances if you ever need to use it you'll be very glad you had it.

The benefit to society is that it lowers the risk of making transactions, so people actually spend their money. The inherent risk in crypto transactions has a (very slight) chilling effect on people's willingness to buy things with it. Why would you pay for something with BTC when you can use a safer payment method?

Also, let's not ignore the fact that crypto has fees too, and few people are paying taxes on the money they make from them, so there's little difference on that side of things except the benefit to the consumer is missing.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#313

Post by madrox » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:06 AM UTC

At this point, I think the "will it or won't it?" questions of crypto are meaningless. There's simply so much mindshare wrapped up in crypto that even if it stops being exchangable for dollars people will keep doing things with it. It's also decentralized enough that removing the actual infrastructure would be difficult.

It may or not end up looking exactly like traditional money, but it'll look like something.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#314

Post by thayne » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:06 AM UTC

grog454 wrote: post #299

jmcgough wrote: post #19

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

But it also gives the credit card companies an incentive to catch fraudulent behavior as soon as possible, and prevent it where possible.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#315

Post by spcebar » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:07 AM UTC

grog454 wrote: post #299

jmcgough wrote: post #19

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

If you put more effort into prevention, thieves are going to put more effort into circumventing said protection. Without some kind of safety net, people are going to be stolen from and really get hurt.

As for net benefit to society, it's not the first thing I'm thinking of when I've had my credit card skimmed. What I'm thinking is, thank goodness there's some modicum of protection for me and I haven't been wiped out with no recourse, which could be the case with crypto.

Is it good for the consumer to have these protections? I think people would much rather have the safety net of the financial institution and maybe need to pay a passed on fee at a merchant than not pay a fee and risk being completely drained of funds.

Is it good for banks? Not really, I think? Regardless of whether they're writing it off on taxes, it's still money that's leaving their hands. That does leave the point about them being able to dodge taxes, but, if there's one thing corporations are good at, it's dodging taxes.

--

Forgive typos, on my phone.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#316

Post by vel0city » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:07 AM UTC

grog454 wrote: post #299

jmcgough wrote: post #19

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

So your alternative of the fraud insurance we currently have is to just end fraud?

You sound like Gov. Abbott. Don't worry about abortion in the case of rape, we'll just get rid of rape.

Why didn't we just think of that before? Just get rid of crime, and there won't be any problems!

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#317

Post by samtho » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:07 AM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #229

If it's a bubble, it's a pretty lousy one in terms of returns. Some energy stocks were up 100-1000% a week ago due to surging oil prices. And then some SPACs were up 500%. Some guy on reddit's wallstreetbets recently turned $17k into $600k with amazon call options. I never seen anyone make those kind of returns with crypto...just guys with tiny Binance or Coinbase accounts who are happy to make 20% from a $1000 initi…

The wild fluctuations in price, even if the average stays the same, is what enables returns here, not the rise of value over time. I have a bot that trade on the highs and lows of the day, and it can make an absurd amount of money.

Also, buying very large quantities of fringe alt coins at millionths of a dollar each can pay off if the coin ends up rising in popularity and price. I do a few moon shots each year and cash out in November when crypto rallies. I’ll put $500 in 10 coins and usually one or two of them 100x at some point. I have my notifier send me a text message when it’s time to sell.

Not saying this stuff is useful, because it totally isn’t at this point. Well, except perhaps to make some random people a lot of money from nothing.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#318

Post by godelski » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:08 AM UTC

grog454 wrote: post #299

jmcgough wrote: post #19

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Can we, just for a moment, think critically about whether or not this is a good* thing? As a consumer / client of the credit card company it seems great at first glance. I get scammed?…

Credit card companies often actually get the money back. They do a clawback/charge back. Which btw, some cryptocurrencies offer this too and there's also credit card like functionality, just not widely adopted because there's few places that accept cryptocurriencies.

But yeah, I do think clawbacks are a good thing.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#319

Post by tippytippytango » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:08 AM UTC

Nothing in here that hasn't been said in the last 10 year. It's tempting to dismiss it as a bubble. But; most bubbles don't get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th... etc. chances. Every time bitcoin crashes people say "this one is different, this time it's dead for real", then it bounces back. It's proving to be far more cockroach like than anyone anticipated.

In the more distant future, if bitcoin survives, its utility will just be one thing, it will be regarded as a unit of measuring transaction value independent of any government. It will not be a replacement for any sovereign currency. Just this extra tool out there in the ether of finance. Notions of store of value, blockchain, proof of work etc. will be regarded as implementation details of achieving a global unit of account. Think of it like the SI unit of value, kilogram, meter, bitcoin. It's still far too illiquid to serve that purpose now; but, once it has at least an order of magnitude larger market cap it may.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#320

Post by Osiris » Sat, Mar 19, 2022, 4:09 AM UTC

pavlov wrote: post #311

wraptile wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems…

The EU created and deployed instant zero-cost 24/7 bank transfers while crypto was twiddling its thumbs talking about “early days” and puffing out PoW carbon. If even the European Union moves faster than your cutting-edge decentralized system, maybe you have a problem.

You're comparing a centralized approach with the force of law to a decentralized approach which requires buy-in by the masses without any coercion.

Of course the two approaches will be different.