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Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

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Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#191

Post by roenxi »

jspash wrote: post #142
RobertRoberts wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many people who will die from many common diseases that are communicable, including the standard flu. This argument doesn't hold up under scrutiny. At risk people (the vast, vast minority) need to self quarantine instead of having the unrealistic expectation that the everyone should instead of them.

I see you are planning to spend your golden years sheltering entirely indoors with others of the vast vast minority? ie. the over 60-70's.

Things that can kill a 70 year old include such threats as falling over, or moderate exercise. At no point in thousands of years of human history have we seriously tried to keep all the 70 year olds who were alive at the start of the year alive at the start oft he next year. It isn't possible.

60s is a different thing, but at 70 there are very real questions about whether a quarantine is even worth it. Do you risk losing half your remaining lifespan in a quarantine, attempting to avoid a 30% chance of death? The calculus is grim, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#192

Post by ZYinMD »

elric wrote: post #36

Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).

It's funny you call it 1G instead of 1B. I've never seen people do that. Now I think about it, why is GB not called BB?

Btw, it's 1.5G, not 1G.

Btw, the Chinese government lies about many things but the COVID case numbers weren't lies, at least no lies after March 2020.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#193

Post by mathverse »

tommiegannert wrote: post #141

> Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized Would you expect this to continue being the new normal? From what I've seen in the US, it seems big companies are eager to have people back in offices, and the NYC mayor really want people to come back, because coffee shops suffer.

WFH will never be normalized in China. It goes against every cultural trait of Chinese people.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#194

Post by skrause »

throwaway4good wrote: post #124
petesergeant wrote: post #86

> can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous There are enough people it’s dangerous for, especially in a population not widely exposed to it and who haven’t had mRNA boosters, that it can cause hospitals to jam up and pictures of grandma dying on a stretcher outside a regional hospital. This is a political big deal when you’ve spent 2 years mouthing off about the decadent West’s poor…

Wrt. mRNA boosters, I know it is a common talking point that China is in trouble because it doesn't have mRNA-vaccines but I believe the vaccines that China have is of the type as the AstraZeneca vaccine, that is commonly used in the UK which now is free of COVID-restrictions. In other words; if is China is willing, it can go down the same path of vax-and-let-it-rip.

China is more likely to go the Hong-Kong route (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60474342), i.e. a very high death rate even with Omicron because they (unlike the UK) haven't managed to vaccinate a high percentage of their old population.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#195

Post by pinetlk »

It seems the 0-covid policy is a negative consequence of having so many people so close together. It changes the dynamic of infectious diseases so that you suddenly have 100k people die instead of 100. Still, I am strongly against lockdowns and mandates and so on. The cure is much worse than the disease from my perspective. I have no concern over covid, all of my concern is over what the government will do next. Will I be allowed to go to the gym, which is essentially a life-line for me? They closed those for months last time.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#196

Post by dragonsh »

ChemSpider wrote: post #156
refurb wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. I’ve been somewhat amazed at how China has handled it as of late. I get the short-term goal - stop Covid from taking hold by isolating new outbreaks. They have the manpower and the organization to isolate entire cities, do mass testing and lockdown neighborhoods. But: 1. It’s pretty clear with Omnicron the higher infectivity is making that task harder and lockdowns longer 2. The lockdowns have real economic i…

"once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals" Afaik Sinovac is pretty much useless against Omicron.

No post body was provided.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#197

Post by ZYinMD »

nathansherburn wrote: post #133
wheresmycraisin wrote: post #110

"China is Entering Lockdown" seems like a massive overstatement. A couple of Tier 1 cities != China.

Thank you! As someone considering flying my family out of China soon I had a rush of fear reading that headline!

You should do it sooner than later if you have decided to go anyway. The numbers are not looking good: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml. It's like 200 200 200 200, then 500 500 500 500, then 2000 yesterday.

But they're mostly in Jilin, so use your own judgement.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#198

Post by interpenetrate »

throwaway290 wrote: post #180
interpenetrate wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not very fun. You're supposed to tell me a convincing story about why the lockdown is happening. Someone quickly replied to me about how the present lockdown is specifically intended to cause inflation in the U.S. Unfortunately they were too embarrassed or didn't want to face the next logical question (because conspiracy theories are never finished), so they quickly deleted the comment. But at least they tried…

Maybe the virus spilled into population centers too close to party leadership. Maybe it indeed got to the point where it is difficult to hide. I don't know. My point is that it's on you (and WHO) to explain trusting data supplied by a country with a long history of supplying false data (in other words, believe a known liar).

No post body was provided.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#199

Post by sgjohnson »

ZYinMD wrote: post #192
elric wrote: post #36

Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).

It's funny you call it 1G instead of 1B. I've never seen people do that. Now I think about it, why is GB not called BB? Btw, it's 1.5G, not 1G. Btw, the Chinese government lies about many things but the COVID case numbers weren't lies, at least no lies after March 2020.

> Now I think about it, why is GB not called BB?

Because it doesn’t scale. Giga is the metric prefix for “times billion”.

However, large (and small) numbers don’t end there. What about Quadrillion and Quintillion? What about milli and micro?

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#200

Post by maxerickson »

dragonsh wrote: post #196
ChemSpider wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals" Afaik Sinovac is pretty much useless against Omicron.

Quoted post unavailable.

The 3rd shot of the mRNA vaccine clearly does reduce infection from Omicron somewhat (I would call it more than useless for that effect, you can call it whatever you want).

They also are still very effective at preventing severe disease (against Omicron). This is the opposite of useless.

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