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Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

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Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#31

Post by captainmuon »

Thorentis wrote: post #12

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.

If there is no case in your region, then strict measures means life as usual. If you have a case, then you and your contacts need to quarantine. Contact tracing is extremely effective for Corona. Also remember that most people don't infect anybody, but few people are very contagious. This is to an extent still true for Omicron.

The calculation for China is: inconvenience a small fraction of people, save thousands of lives - even though Omicron is mild, you can still have complications. And China is huge, so a small probability multiplies. They likely prevent millions of cases of long covid. And keep their economy going, where western countries had losses.

Imagine the opposite question: Should they sacrifice thousands of people, and billions of dollars, so a fraction of a percent don't have to spend two weeks in lockdown? Popular support seems to be completely for the lockdown measures. In fact, I think some of it is really over the top (the hazmat suites, the lockdown hotels, stopping a train mid-route because of a suspected contact...) but they do it because the people demand it, not because it is strictly neccessary.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#32

Post by user_named »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #21

It’s amazing the costs China are willing to bear for this. Inevitably they will lose the war, and when they do it is a mild disease going into what I assume is a well vaccinated population. The UK has been hard at times in 2020 and 2021, but Covid feels like ancient history here now, as it should do.

I think it's the opposite. Chinas economy was quickly back to normal in 2020 while other countries suffered. But it's going to be costly this time, for little return.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#33

Post by bencollier49 »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #21

It’s amazing the costs China are willing to bear for this. Inevitably they will lose the war, and when they do it is a mild disease going into what I assume is a well vaccinated population. The UK has been hard at times in 2020 and 2021, but Covid feels like ancient history here now, as it should do.

Came to say the same thing. This feels like a weird blast from the past, which given that Covid first appeared in China, seems just odd really.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#34

Post by captainmuon »

user_named wrote: post #24
captainmuon wrote: post #20

But even now, given that China is such a huge country, I think that the fraction of people inconvenienced by lockdown measures and other disturbances is smaller than in most western countries. Here in Germany, they are lifting most restrictions soon, but for example a lot of teachers are sick - which affects the childrens' parents as they can't go to work, and then their colleagues, and so on. It will take a long tim…

In my opinion china's policies have been the best, maybe together with New Zealand. We've basically been living as normal, much more so than any other country, except for some local cases here and there when there was a month of tightening. That's why I think it's ironic that once the virus basically becomes non-threatening, China has to enter the same type of lockdown as other countries did two years before. And tha…

Yeah, it is really ironic. I've heard a story that one of the reasons Sinovac is not as effective as other vaccinations is that they didn't have enough infected people for the trials.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#35

Post by benjaminwootton »

user_named wrote: post #27
benjaminwootton wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine it’s been a pretty tough few years for the people there, and they still have to go through the full waves when their vaccines wane in effectiveness and the rest of the world gets back to normal. I didn’t envy the likes of New Zealand or China throughout because they really have no exit strategy other than eventually losing the war after multiple years of damage and hardship.

It's been perfectly fine except you haven't been able to leave the country and come back, except for some exceptions. I mean I know people who left for Christmas and came back but that's a lot of work and risking policy change while you're gone.

Do you still have to do social distancing, limiting numbers, limiting hospitality, QR checkins etc? Are people living in fear of Covid etc?

I’m not saying it’s like that in China, but I would find it pretty hard to live like that plus no international travel to maintain zero Covid.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#36

Post by elric »

Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#37

Post by user_named »

captainmuon wrote: post #31
Thorentis wrote: post #12

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.

If there is no case in your region, then strict measures means life as usual. If you have a case, then you and your contacts need to quarantine. Contact tracing is extremely effective for Corona. Also remember that most people don't infect anybody, but few people are very contagious. This is to an extent still true for Omicron. The calculation for China is: inconvenience a small fraction of people, save thousands of…

This is on point.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#38

Post by sfifs »

fbrncci wrote: post #9

I probably chose the wrong time to take time off, and travel to SEA for three weeks. Halfway expecting to land there and spend the next few months in lockdown. Wonder how HR will take it.

South East Asia is pretty much opening up and treating Covid as endemic. You shouldn't have problems.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#39

Post by user_named »

senectus1 wrote: post #28

china has been doing hard lockdowns for 2 years. just very very targeted very very HARD lockdowns.

Yes. But that's different. The West we're doing national or citywide lockdowns which did not happen to the same extent here. Now, we will definitely see general citywide lockdowns soon. That's what's changed.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#40

Post by user_named »

elric wrote: post #36

Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).

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