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Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

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171–180 of 319 posts

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#171
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a booster (3rd shot), the UK only uses mRNA vaccines. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccinat... Edit: changed my ambiguous wording

Quoted post unavailable.

Utter nonsense. A lot of vaccines need multiple shots -- independent of the duration of the protection.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#173

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.

If there is no case in your region, then strict measures means life as usual. If you have a case, then you and your contacts need to quarantine. Contact tracing is extremely effective for Corona. Also remember that most people don't infect anybody, but few people are very contagious. This is to an extent still true for Omicron. The calculation for China is: inconvenience a small fraction of people, save thousands of…

Getting a common cold is not dangerous to practically anyone. To assert that suppression of a common cold virus is state sanctioned murder is not appropriate. And a people built by a brutal, and frankly evil, regime are not the best arbiters of rational response to totalitariansim.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#174

Crazy that every nation other than china has had 3 big “waves” of Covid cases. Yet somehow china has only had the initial wave of Covid back in early 2020 and nothing else until now. Very strange.

Not when you look at the restrictions imposed on citizens, there are comments here about office blocks being locked down for 48hrs and everyone tested. Plus all the regional lockdowns where people were forced to stay indoors that were reported widely in western media. China could simply deal with a virus like COVID-19 far better than the west. They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a soc…

> They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a society more willing to make sacrifices for the "common good".

For a definition of "better" that most sane people wouldn't accept.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#175
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we trust disease statistics coming out of a system where everybody from regular citizens to local officials is incentivized to not report possible COVID cases? There is a reason fever medication in China had been selling so well that the government wanted to control its sales (don’t know if they ended up going there or not), while the country reported almost no COVID.

What country doesn't have an incentive to lie about all of this? I don't disagree with the conclusion that the stats are likely more controlled (if only by having more data) but you need to be precise about the incentives and the means. In countries where things get super bad, you have massive tents outside hospitals, people dying everywhere. There are 1.3 billion people, loads of which _do_ have VPNs and ways of com…

The incentive for citizens is a threat of their entire city block or rural area being literally locked; possibly social karma consequences (your fault for not complying with PPE measures). For local officials, the threat of losing their jobs because there is no telling if upper management will decide you should be replaced if you report unpleasant facts that violate national point of pride (zero COVID), and everyone really likes a position of power.

In a country with freedoms, democratically elected government as opposed to vengeful dictatorship, and a culture of openness rather than culture of pervasive lying to cover oneself and one’s relatives, the incentives for misreporting are much weaker.

> The idea that there was a secret pandemic that had a bunch of deaths in China is very hard to square with the reality that everyone has a camera and messaging apps to talk to your neighbors.

1) Outside of cities, a.k.a. everywhere the famed one child policy was also ignored and no one cared. Locals who know would not be foolish enough to complain upwards and risk their lives upended. 2) You would not go around messaging others about this sensitive matter. You would not film (as another comment reported, your phone may be confiscated). Like with OCP, you would very much keep on the low, and those you tell out of necessity would do the same for you. 3) How many of those people with outside connection disagree with and are willing to violate the party line?

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#176
post #126
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Did they not tell you that in Belgium? What's up with this pointless snarkiness? You're making it sound like the machinations of an evil propaganda machine, when in reality Belgium has been quite good at overreporting covid stats. Not sure which stats you're referring to as being "some of the worst in the world".

COVID deaths per-capita were really high in Belgium and it was one of the worst in the world until recently, but it seems it's now just about average compared to southern European countries, but way above most of its neighbouring countries. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

NL is undercounting by 30 to 40% in the official figures. Eventually this gets fixed due to excess death figures being far more accurate but those don't make it into the various COVID statistics reports. So you'll hear one official institution in NL reporting a cumulative tally of about 22600 at the moment, and another reporting 35000 or thereabouts.

(good article about this in Dutch https://www.ntvg.nl/artikelen/covid-19-oversterfte-de-maat )

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#177

> can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous There are enough people it’s dangerous for, especially in a population not widely exposed to it and who haven’t had mRNA boosters, that it can cause hospitals to jam up and pictures of grandma dying on a stretcher outside a regional hospital. This is a political big deal when you’ve spent 2 years mouthing off about the decadent West’s poor…

Sorry but what's the source that mRNA boosters work against Omicron ? I thought it's more like the vaccines neutralize threat from the original 2-3 variants and Omicron isn't deadly in and of itself.

Also maybe this is China specific paranoia since neighbouring India doesn't care much and they seem to be doing fine wrt Omicron.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#179
post #36

Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).

China is engaging in some combination of not measuring/not reporting/lying on the subject of COVID infections. Ourworldindata claims [0] that their case counts are comparable to New Zealand. There needs to be a much, much more powerful argument than "they've got CCTV and powerful bureaucrats!" before anyone can take those figures seriously.

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Uyghur incarceration also a conspiracy theory, or does CCP lie about that but never about COVID? Lockdown now is not exclusive with false case and death numbers.

That's not very fun. You're supposed to tell me a convincing story about why the lockdown is happening. Someone quickly replied to me about how the present lockdown is specifically intended to cause inflation in the U.S. Unfortunately they were too embarrassed or didn't want to face the next logical question (because conspiracy theories are never finished), so they quickly deleted the comment. But at least they tried…

Maybe the virus spilled into population centers too close to party leadership. Maybe it indeed got to the point where it is difficult to hide. I don't know.

My point is that it's on you (and WHO) to explain trusting data supplied by a country with a long history of supplying false data (in other words, believe a known liar).

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