Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission • Hacker News Board

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#151

Post by cf141q5325 » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:24 AM UTC

fabian2k wrote: post #132

cf141q5325 wrote: post #116

Well yes. Artillery bombardment is THE Russian military doctrine. Any uncertainty on the headline would mean assuming Russia had developed some unusual qualms on the subject. And why would they? It seems to me that among the moral outrage people kind of lost touch with reality. There is some basic facts, take it here from the German public broadcast >According to its president, Russia is seeking the "denazification"…

Just because Russia has no qualms about committing war crimes and slaughtering civilians doesn't mean we can't be outraged by this. Outrage about killing civilians is entirely justified.

Sure but depending how it is framed it has very real consequences. Just see the other post below you, cynically, already downvoted. It rallies people up in some self-righteous parallel reality cheering on the conflict quelling any voice of reason. After all there is the archetypal underdog you know and love from movies, surely the eagles will come any moment now.

Ukrainians will die over the unwillingness to just take what ever demands Russia has now instead of in what ever time it takes to install a puppet regime in the rubble. And while some are forced to stay there due to conscription, quite a lot seem to be caught up in a nationalistic fever and delusional belief that "the West will stand with them".

The only thing the west will do is ship outdated weapon to give Russia their Vietnam. Which unfortunately for the Ukrainian people will be fought in their hometowns.

edit: Or answering it shorter, Outrage doesnt justify loosing touch with reality. Which already was the initial statement

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#152

Post by hef19898 » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:26 AM UTC

rich_sasha wrote: post #142

misja111 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. He incorrectly assumed that he'd only be facing minor sanctions for starting a war of aggression Russia's biggest source of income is their export of gas and oil. These are not sanctioned, the West is buying as much as ever and the profits are flowing straight into Putin's war chest. > 2. He incorrectly assumed that Ukraine would fold in less than a week. How do you know this? Russia has fought wars before, e.g.…

> These are not sanctioned, the West is buying as much as ever [...] They sort of ended up sanctioned. You're right, there's nothing official, but no unconstrained buyer wants to touch energy exports from Russia. Russia is struggling to sell its oil to unconstrained buyers [1]. Sure, Europe, in winter, with no ready alternative, is still buying, but that's about it it seems. Also, while it's true global oil prices ar…

I think Putin starting talks with Ukraine, and not the other way round, further shows that he tremendously underestimated the time frame.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#153

Post by cf141q5325 » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:27 AM UTC

saiya-jin wrote: post #150

MrRiddle wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, on /r/europe I suggested exactly this would happen and how Ukrainian government should sign the deal while they still have some leverage left. I got banned from it for life because of it.

Its a stupid suggestion to put it mildly, pardon my french. There is no deal to be signed. Unless you mean complete Ukrainian surrender, being dragged into being another Russian slave like Chechnya or Belarus. Putin doesn't accept anything less. Russia is now yet another horrible dictatorship, no reason to believe Ukraine would fare any better, in fact most probably much, much worse due to resistance to this invasion…

So what else is the goal? How many dead Ukrainians to achieve which goal in which way? Please be specific

edit: I get that this sound snarky, but it will hopefully drive home the point. Unless you have a 3rd alternative to agreeing what ever the man with the nukes understands under "demilitarization and denazification" and joining a death cult with mandatory membership i dont really get what i can tell you.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#154

Post by saiya-jin » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:30 AM UTC

misja111 wrote: post #68

simon_000666 wrote: post #61

I’m surprised there is no technical solution to shell-ing. Some kind of autonomous anti-shell gun that shoots them down mid flight? It seems like a fairly common problem.

You mean something like this one https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goalkeeper_CIWS or the Iron Dome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome An Iron Dome was actually ordered by Ukraine but Israel blocked the transaction.

I hate their position right now... shows how unreliable partner to west they are when real SHTF

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#155

Post by MichaelRazum » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:31 AM UTC

oblio wrote: post #108

MichaelRazum wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't think the logic is the same. First the Palestinians aren't under attack, they can just stop firing rockets. Second I think there are a lot of people who profit from a cold/warm war, especially there.

The Palestinians are obviously under attack, let's not kid ourselves. To this day I don't know where I stand in this conflict, since I understand many of the subtleties of the conflict. But that part is clear, Palestine > under attack. Israely is knowingly "salamy tactic-ing" Palestine. They're slowly chipping away at their regions. They're destroying Palestine through administrative abuse. It's like slowly being cru…

So you deny that Hamas a terrorist organization send rockets at civilians? They got their territory. Why send rockets? The reason it is rational for them. They need to be in power and get the funding through destruction. By the way some more example where the hate comes from:

https://www.jns.org/eu-unpublished-report-finds-palestinian-...

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#156

Post by ChuckNorris89 » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:32 AM UTC

oblio wrote: post #105

zpeti wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is wanting to put your name in the history books not objectively rational?

Not if it kills you and not if it's infamy. Especially since he has kids, he'll be leaving them an extra bad legacy, even in his own country.

Putin's kids will be set for life financially, and can live a super safe and comfy life in neutral countries like Switzerland, New Zeeland or Austria.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#157

Post by MichaelRazum » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:33 AM UTC

vkou wrote: post #109

MichaelRazum wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't think the logic is the same. First the Palestinians aren't under attack, they can just stop firing rockets. Second I think there are a lot of people who profit from a cold/warm war, especially there.

> First the Palestinians aren't under attack, they can just stop firing rockets No, they are simply under permanent military occupation , with no end in sight, no path to enfranchisement. At best, they are living in an apartheid state. At worst, they had a war declared on them, and they aren't even permitted to surrender. If some third party invaded the United States, and kettled Americans to live in isolated enclave…

An apartheid state. That is clearly wrong. An Arab party is in the government. Even they said that they don't see Israel as an apartheid state.

Most of them are living much much better than in any neighbor country.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#158

Post by imnotlost » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:43 AM UTC

alephnan wrote: post #133

imnotlost wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO membership is entirely voluntary. As such, there haven't been any "pushing of boundaries" unless you presume Russia gets to decide what independent nations like Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, etc. may or may not do.

> NATO membership is entirely voluntary. Yes and Russia doesn't deny that either. The request was for NATO to stop allowing countries like Ukraine to volunteer. Is that unfair ? Yes, it is a bully move. But that was the bully's request, and the West's stance is, effectively, we don't negotiate with terrorists. It's the attitude of: whatever, we do whatever we want. That's also fair, but don't be surprised why Russia…

You're not suggesting NATO saying "sure let's talk about membership" and Russia INVADING a country is the same but different "magnitude"?

It's up to Ukraine if they want to pursue NATO membership or any other agreement with any country or organization.

Russia has no say. It's not a negotiation between NATO and Russia. Russia isn't at the table. They can pine for old USSR glory all they want but nobody else wants that.

And the way Putin's been killing journalists and dissidents (in the UK no less), raiding the treasury, annexing Crimea, and other nonsense, I don't see them being invited to many negotiations in the future.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#159

Post by vogre » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

lmm wrote: post #144

alephnan wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn't is cynical to call it expansion of the West while no-one except Russia expanded beyond borders of Russia? It is just expansion of Russia. Nope, no one is denying Russia's expansion, nor China or the next superpower. The only hypocrisy would be recognizing Russia's expansion and not the West. The conservative argument is that the world should be kept as is, and whoever makes the first move is to blame for brea…

What "expansion of the west"? Estonia et al joined NATO of their own accord, and if sovereignty means anything then they had the right to. (You could certainly make a case about Iraq or Afghanistan, where the west did install a new government by force, but I don't think Russia has been talking about those) > The West thinks the Ukrainian invasion is the first move of any party, and its done nothing this whole time Ha…

> What has "the west" done that's remotely comparable to Crimea or South Ossetia?

Lead the pro-NATO coup in the closest Russia's neighbourgs, armed these countries with heavy weapons, encouraged them to fight Russia and promised to support this fight, then leave and watch Russians and Ukrainians kill each other at the expense of Europe.

It didn't started in 2022 or 2014, it escalated for the last 30 years.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#160

Post by HellDunkel » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 9:50 AM UTC

neuronic wrote: post #63

alephnan wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted The narrative started out that Putin is a dog backed into a corner, therefore he is bluffing and won’t actually invade. The story was also that he has the most to lose. Maybe the premise was correct, but the conclusion hasn’t been proven valid yet.

Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology (unite the ethnically Russian people). Add to that miscommunication within all sectors of government just to please your superiors and that's how you arrive at the, sorry, shit tier decision making surrounding this entire war. Anyone…

I am convinced the narrative of Putin acting irrational is intended by the man. We are supposed to be scared of a nuclear war. This we cannot accept. A much better way is to see this as a game of chess with a sane opponent.