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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

noteplan.co

261–270 of 275 posts

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#261
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the case with most journalism, no? Here we have a well respected journalist with a solid track record claiming that they trust their source. Doesn’t mean it’s necessarily true, but certainly lends credibility.

It is similar. I wouldn’t take at face value a journalist saying “this is what an FSB operative says, trust me”. Leaks from “senior anonymous official” are dozen a penny. Journalists typically indicate how they verified the provenance of leaks they publish, and hopefully keep the unverifiable stuff off their pages. As for the guy’s track record... this sounds like a niche source. Some fairly small slither of the popu…

In the end this is a really empty criticism. Anyone with half a brain understands that journalism tends to come with these caveats.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#262
post #172
post #2

It could just be my ignorance, but is world hunger really as inevitable as they say. Couldn't other countries step up production or tap into their grain reserves? >World hunger is unavoidable... I can't tell you what the higher ups were thinking when they decided to go through with this operation

Imo, chances are, it is yet again bad analysis. Regardless of whether this is trolls writing or not. Prices of food will go up tho.

So, I gother it might not be bad analysis. The hunger thing is more about further east then further west where is more dependence on these.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's like trying to ban kindness. Oops, it's tricky.

No, it's not. Snotty comments like yours are also against the rules. There are more than enough examples of communities running without politics.

Seems like you're in the wrong about the rules.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#265

It was a tense week, but Russia has lost the war. They can drag it out, but ultimately victory will go to Ukraine. The reasons for this are subtle but obvious. The Russian military machine can't operate outside of Russia. They have no way of transporting fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lies. This means that their effective operational capabilities are limited to five days. It's been a hobby of…

What I don't understand, though: surely they can not be so incompetent as to having forgotten that they need fuel? If all success hinged on the airport, then there should have been some plan B in case of losing the airport?

read this article, it explains it in detail:

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#266
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

when was the last time bellingcat published anything that was not in favour of the western spin? Perhaps the houthi drone strike, but even then you could view it as downplaying houthi's capabilities. The claimed "fact" that bellingcat somehow has FSB contacts that are willing to verify material seems like even bigger stretch.

Had you actually read Bellingcat recently, you’d be aware of their huge EU Frontex investigation

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#267
post #245

It “smells right” to a Western audience, but seems a little too good to be true. Right now objective #1 for Ukraine is to get NATO to implement a no-fly zone. NATO are reluctant because of the risk of escalating into a direct war with nuclear-armed Russia. The payload of this letter is the claim that the Russian nuclear deterrent is in a state of disrepair, or that cooler heads will prevent it being used. And thus if…

NATO is never going to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. Anyone who thinks that they are is living in a dream world.

Yeah, this guy has definitely been living in a dream world for some time:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-puti...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO is never going to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. Anyone who thinks that they are is living in a dream world.

Yeah, this guy has definitely been living in a dream world for some time: https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-puti...

Zelensky calling for a no fly zone is not even close to him expecting it to happen.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#270
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

It has certainly been the most discussed topic since the war started. The moderation issues are obviously complex but it's not off topic per se.

Of course these perceptions are all relative, which is why "most discussed topic" can still feel "absent from HN".

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