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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#201

Post by timeon »

paganel wrote: post #183
cuteboy19 wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is perhaps history's most justified war. (In that it has so many contradictory justifications) 1. Ukraine is run by the first Jewish Nazi president. So obviously they needed to be denazified 2. Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders 3. Ukraine has WMDs! 4. Ukraine is actually just a part of Russia, and the Soviet Union just messed up and drew a…

> Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders Not commenting on the other points but I think the general idea was to create a border state between Russia proper and said NATO countries, maybe out of the whole Ukraine with a Russian puppet as president, or out of several Ukrainian statelets. If it matters I do live in one of those NATO countries borderin…

That idea seems to be less relevant since there are Baltic states and Norway already bordering Russia.

Edit: If Russia really needs buffer - it is big country, they can create it inside Russia`s border. But they do not need this buffer because Russia`s army compared to NATO is nothing - buffer would not help. But Russia has more nuclear missiles then NATO. And that is more powerful then some mythical buffer zone.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#203

Post by xhevahir »

"...Erdogan's "Southern stream" into 4 directions and thus began Syria, and this was after Soleimani..."

I haven't paid much attention to this stuff in recent years, so I googled these and found an interesting article: http://www.softpanorama.org/Skeptics/Financial_skeptic/Energ...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#204

Post by ur-whale »

sumedh wrote: post #50
ur-whale wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Wheat prices are through the roof right now [1], it's only going to get worse. So short-term impact pretty much guaranteed. Longer term, much of the euro zone agriculture is very dependent on fertilizers that are either produced using Russian natural gas or directly bought from there. Cost of growing food, if the situation d…

> Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. I dont think the US and Europe really care about that, they will send some token supplies but its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving.

> its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving.

Up until the point where the problem spills over the borders and into Europe.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#205

Post by blywi »

glogla wrote: post #108
eterevsky wrote: post #24

It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).

Whether fake or not, it is definitely adding some perspectives I didn't see up until now. For example, I have not considered the possibility of Kadyrov position not being very stable if he loses (or already lost) his soldiers in something that was supposed to be short and glorious war. Same with how does Russia keep their Syria effort supplied when their logistics in Ukraine are already stretched. So this is definite…

If you would like to have more background information, here is a great thread about Chechen history and Kadirovs rise to power in view of this conflict. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612331953577991.html

I would recommend Kamil Galeev threads to anyone interested in the history of Russia and Ukraine, he has written a ton of threads about a lot of different aspects to the Russian/Ukrainian conflict, which all look very well researched to me. I'm not sure I agree with all of his conclusions though.

Here is the meta thread for all the sub threads: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711

Unrolled twitter threads:

1. Why Russia will lose this war? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993363076915204.html

2. Information Warfare https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498313116312080384.html

3. Kadyrov's kingdom https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612331953577991.html

4. "Ukrainian Nazism" - Putin's take https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497306746330697738.html

5. How Putin came to power https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496711906412933121.html

6. FSB: State Security as the core of Putin's regime https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496506490202513413.html

7. Valentina Matvienko: a sociological portrait of Putin's elite https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495790874235744258.html

8. Isn't Ukraine just a separatist Russian province? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495469553136066572.html

9. Ukrainian Geography https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495200579919958021.html

10. A crash introduction into ethnopolitical situation in Ukraine https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1494334415446577153.html

11. Russian demography https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493602653586264076.html

12. Russian army https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493968165717561346.html

13. Why Putin is afraid of Ukraine so much https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492960693737463813.html

14. Russian assabiyahs https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492549093771694082.html

15. The Horde and Russian Imperiogenesis https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492164056962195457.html

16. Why honour matters - The War in Ukraine in American context https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498692916511924232.html

17. Russian parliamentarism https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499048492358111235.html

18. VDV: Why Russia lost this war https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499377671855292423.html

19. Russian exports https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499855858456567809.html

20. Dynamics of nuclear deterrence https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500168838356381703.html

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#206

Post by lawl »

paganel wrote: post #179
rich_sasha wrote: post #134

While it looks like it’s interesting, I can’t help but feel that the informational content is zero of maybe even negative. There is absolutely no way for the lay internet user to corroborate one word of it that isn’t already public information. Whether it looks or feels plausible is also meaningless: it could “feel right” because it is, or because someone took effort to design it this way. So best thing for me is to…

The info about Putin not being the only one in charge of pushing the "red button" is new. Hopefully it is also true, but afaik there hasn't been any concrete info about that, quite the contrary, the feeling is that all the world risks getting into nuclear war because of one "madman".

> the feeling is that all the world risks getting into nuclear war because of one "madman".

Which, from a game theory perspective is exactly what he would want you to feel. If people don't believe he will press the red button, then the red button doesn't deter anyone and there is no nuclear deterrence.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#207

Post by spacemanmatt »

throwmeariver1 wrote: post #76
tankenmate wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politics ought to be adjusted not to human reasonings but to human nature, of which reason is but a part and by no means the greatest part. -- Edmund Burke To make a somewhat contra-positive corollary; If you want to remove politics you need to remove humans. -- Me HN wouldn't be much without humans.

There are a lot of communities that are functioning way better after they implemented a strict no politics policy. It's a strawman argument. Especially considering the populous of hackernews of which 90% don't believe that they can be manipulated by advertising because they are too intelligent. It's gonna be a shitshow.

I wonder how many giggle when they read populous where they expect populace

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#208

Post by spacemanmatt »

throwmeariver1 wrote: post #76
tankenmate wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politics ought to be adjusted not to human reasonings but to human nature, of which reason is but a part and by no means the greatest part. -- Edmund Burke To make a somewhat contra-positive corollary; If you want to remove politics you need to remove humans. -- Me HN wouldn't be much without humans.

There are a lot of communities that are functioning way better after they implemented a strict no politics policy. It's a strawman argument. Especially considering the populous of hackernews of which 90% don't believe that they can be manipulated by advertising because they are too intelligent. It's gonna be a shitshow.

What does it say about quality if you use a trash account and don't bother with grammar-checking? Those things would seem to belie your stated position.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#209

Post by lobocinza »

cuteboy19 wrote: post #153
varispeed wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read about it like two weeks ago. They are desperate to find a justification for their war crimes. Given that Putin himself has been caught saying multiple lies, there is no point giving any credibility to them. Their "special operation" is not going to plan and they will be trying to use any trick to find some support for their atrocities.

It is perhaps history's most justified war. (In that it has so many contradictory justifications) 1. Ukraine is run by the first Jewish Nazi president. So obviously they needed to be denazified 2. Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders 3. Ukraine has WMDs! 4. Ukraine is actually just a part of Russia, and the Soviet Union just messed up and drew a…

And this isn't a war or invasion just an "special military operation".

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#210

Post by throwmeariver1 »

spacemanmatt wrote: post #171
detaro wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN tried banning "all politics" once. it was one of the bigger clusterfucks in the history of the site.

It's like trying to ban kindness. Oops, it's tricky.

No, it's not. Snotty comments like yours are also against the rules. There are more than enough examples of communities running without politics.
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