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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#121
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#122
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

From what I noticed on many social networks is that Russian information warfare is working on spreading their propaganda. They will be coming to derail any conversation with lies, deflection and other manipulation techniques to sow doubts in the reports coming from Ukraine. They are quite crude so it is very easy to spot them if you know what to look for. I think their propaganda is mostly targeted at people who alre…

Everyone is affected by propaganda. There’s a quote from a famous magician (maybe Penn?) that smart people are the easiest to fool because they think they’re too smart to be fooled.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#124
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

when was the last time bellingcat published anything that was not in favour of the western spin? Perhaps the houthi drone strike, but even then you could view it as downplaying houthi's capabilities. The claimed "fact" that bellingcat somehow has FSB contacts that are willing to verify material seems like even bigger stretch.

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#125

It was a tense week, but Russia has lost the war. They can drag it out, but ultimately victory will go to Ukraine. The reasons for this are subtle but obvious. The Russian military machine can't operate outside of Russia. They have no way of transporting fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lies. This means that their effective operational capabilities are limited to five days. It's been a hobby of…

> That would require purging every general who thought it was a good idea to move troops in with no supply line.

Russia had already purged generals in 00s — there's been a LOT of weird "accidents" happening to experienced and charismatic generals after the second Chechen war.

That's one of the reasons behind what's happening now.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dirty bomb thing isn't anything new, and definitely precedes this. Both google and bing have blocked all RT.com results here in Germany, duck.com luckily still lets me search for it. 2009: https://www.rt.com/news/the-price-of-mass-destruction/ >Ukraine’s security service has arrested a group suspected of trying to sell a container of radioactive material. Officials say there was enough of the substance to create…

Believing anything RT have ever written, especially about Ukraine is, to put it mildly, not the best strategy.

I am bringing this up not as facts that Ukraine is building a dirty bomb, but as a fact that Russia has been talking about the possibility of them doing so for a long time now.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#127
post #5
post #2

It could just be my ignorance, but is world hunger really as inevitable as they say. Couldn't other countries step up production or tap into their grain reserves? >World hunger is unavoidable... I can't tell you what the higher ups were thinking when they decided to go through with this operation

Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Wheat prices are through the roof right now [1], it's only going to get worse. So short-term impact pretty much guaranteed. Longer term, much of the euro zone agriculture is very dependent on fertilizers that are either produced using Russian natural gas or directly bought from there. Cost of growing food, if the situation d…

That said, EU destroys an incredible amount of food each year (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit...). Perhaps some of this could be put to good use. Also don’t forget Australia and America are huge grain producers and should be able to ramp up exports.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#128

It was a tense week, but Russia has lost the war. They can drag it out, but ultimately victory will go to Ukraine. The reasons for this are subtle but obvious. The Russian military machine can't operate outside of Russia. They have no way of transporting fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lies. This means that their effective operational capabilities are limited to five days. It's been a hobby of…

What I don't understand, though: surely they can not be so incompetent as to having forgotten that they need fuel? If all success hinged on the airport, then there should have been some plan B in case of losing the airport?

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dirty bomb thing isn't anything new, and definitely precedes this. Both google and bing have blocked all RT.com results here in Germany, duck.com luckily still lets me search for it. 2009: https://www.rt.com/news/the-price-of-mass-destruction/ >Ukraine’s security service has arrested a group suspected of trying to sell a container of radioactive material. Officials say there was enough of the substance to create…

Believing anything RT have ever written, especially about Ukraine is, to put it mildly, not the best strategy.

I read the parent as a report of what RT used to say in the past and may do so soon again to spin some legitimation for putin's upcoming war actions.
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