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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#671
post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, it's the West and its media that are clamoring for war, while Russia has no intention of invading. Now that Russia has invaded, the problem is that the media has a simplistic narrative of good guys and bad guys. Striking how much Russian propaganda has made its way onto HN.

Russian propaganda of the past ~decade has become extremely skilled at sounding reasonable to contrarian thinkers, and at fitting in to the broader Western zeitgeist. RT, less official media - perhaps the FSB itself - now cultivate native intellectuals (hard not to scare-quote that...) with opinions variously: genuinely pro-Putin, generally anti-liberal-world-order, chaotically damaging to the US polity in their dema…

>Russian propaganda of the past ~decade has become extremely skilled at sounding reasonable to contrarian thinkers, and at fitting in to the broader Western zeitgeist. RT, less official media - perhaps the FSB itself - now cultivate native intellectuals

To some extent it has, but seems to be targeted to a very specific profile.

>In any case, I find this more likely than a secret American underground of RIA Novosti fans, or a vast human farm of cheap enough, yet still impeccably Englished, trolls.

Not sure how these came to be the choices. I have undoubtedly seen multiple accounts parroting propaganda in lock-step on HN. And, I'm sure you'd acknowledge the pervasive trollbots/farms propagandizing Twitter and the like.

So, it seems you're making an argument around the quality of the propagandizing as it relates to the likelihood of its source? Something like:

poorly executed propaganda == actual propagandists

well-executed propaganda == organic

It's a bit of an oddly narrow argument but, that aside, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if HN was seen as a high-value target, worthy of more focused and higher quality propaganda efforts.

In fact, there are several factors that make high-quality, lower-volume propaganda efforts worthwhile here. So, not sure why anyone would believe HN would be immune to "actual propagandists". Seems the opposite actually.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#672
post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia were forced to shore up their vulnerable flank Russia wasn't forced to do anything. They could've merely quietly dropped two of their delusions: a) NATO was never going to attack them, unless it literally went crazy, or someone framed Russia so badly that a nuclear response was preferable to any other option. The West doesn't want to trigger a MAD scenario, and are keen to keep the post-WW2 peace and (in the…

Being comfortable in your neighborhood is not a delusion, it's a core priority most nation states will be willing to go to war over. If you are American, then you will likely not understand this because America is blessed with wonderful location: it does not have to contend with dozens of possibly unfriendly neighbors bordering it, which is a luxury that Russia, China, and India do not have. They are huge landmasses…

This sounds reasonable in theory but IMHO is centered in a completely outdated worldview. What European state is an "enemy" of Russia? What European state would attack Russia with military force? It's paranoid thinking by a madman. Russia could have used it's considerable natural resources and top-notch science education to grow their economy and become a prosperous nation but corruption and cronyism at home prevented that.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you are proposing that the air force can just start pummeling the air defences around Moscov? Because that would be a viable counter step if not for MAD.

A viable counter step would be to deny Russia air superiority in Ukraine and to attack any troops crossing the border from Belarus, for example. Not to go and attack the capital of Russia.

Yes, I don't understand why Biden is being shy about this.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#674
post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no precedent in human history for two fairly equal powers engaging in a conflict and one side refusing in totality to use almost any weapon at its disposal and certainly not one that an enemy has already used. Japan did not nuke America back in 1945 because it did not have a nuke and had lost all air superiority.

I may get downvoted into oblivion for saying this, but -- I think it's wishful thinking to imagine soldiers will make the 'right' decision when the call comes. During the Tiananmen Square debacle/massacre, interviews with people there indicate that many/most never imagined the "people's" army would act against them - they were considered on the same side. Yet act against them they did. Similarly, I think you see some…

A group of Russian soldiers in Ukraine has already surrendered because this was more than what they signed up for.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#675
post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think MAD is only half the equation. Even if Putin didn't possess a single nuke, (EDIT:) Nato might very well have stood by watching today, as the conventional force deployed by Putin is pretty significant in itself. Similarly, had NATO deployed 500k soldiers fully armed with modern weaponry in Poland, Lithuania and Rumania as Putin was building up his forces, and added a warning that Ukraine would be granted insta…

> Similarly, had NATO deployed 500k soldiers fully armed with modern weaponry in Poland, Lithuania and Rumania as Putin was building up his forces, and added a warning that Ukraine would be granted instant membership to NATO if he didn't pull back from the border, he probably would have pulled back from the border. Had NATO forces been deployed in Ukraine four months ago, nobody would be making any nuclear threats to…

Four months ago Europe was still deeply enthralled with covid mania and not interested in pretty much anything else.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#676
post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm genuinely curious do people really want to get (presumably other people's sons) into war over this? I hope this doesn't sound flippant or taking light of Russia's actions because it's not intended to be. But what is the decision process behind supporting a choice to start sending other people to kill and die for your desired outcome here? And do you also believe wars should be initiated against China to liberate…

"This", meaning peace near your border? I'm surprised that everyone considers sanctions a sophisticated hard soft power tool (clearly useless) but don't consider mobilization of troops as hardware (short of firing rounds) as an effective and peaceful tool. What Putin did (mobilize troops within their borders) was also an option for NATO/EU in bordering countries. Matching mobilization would definitely increase the co…

No, "this" meaning the present situation in the region. And I'm not asking about a hypothetical, but the actual reasons are that people who support military action. And what is it exactly you personally hope it would achieve.

I would be interested to hear from anybody from Ukraine to USA to Russia.

No right or wrong answers, I'm just interested in perspective.

For myself since I'm asking the question: I'm in a western country and I don't support sending my countrymen to war. For a number of reasons, primarily I don't think the western neoliberal ruling regime (not talking about one political party or another, but the non-partisan support for wars and interventions by many western governments for many decades) can be trusted with war or interventionism. It has almost always been sold on utter lies and deceit, and almost never turned out for the better of the people involved.

It is sold to us on emotion and outrage and urgency and this kind of thing, but very little calm rational and considered arguments and debate of pros and cons and risks and goals ("Putin is like Hitler and must be stopped" type of rhetoric really does not describe a goal of aim of a military action adequately) . Now I have no doubt there are many very good arguments for the people of Ukraine, the country of Ukraine, the containment of bullies and dictatorships, etc., that could help make the case for military action in this case. However I also know that the ruling class have absolutely no interest in the actual well being of the Ukrainian people or the security of the average person in Europe, or a moral duty to stand up to bullies and dictators, or human rights. Because if they did we couldn't explain their actions and inactions with Saudi, Yemen, North Korea, whatever. They are happy to claim they care about those things if by coincidence they might be seen to align with their agenda, but we know they don't care.

So we know the warmongers are lying right off the bat, this is not really disputable. This doesn't make the case for war wrong, but it does (to me) make it much harder to see what is going on, and I think caution should be applied in such cases. But I do acknowledge the problem with appeasement and the need for decisive action and the fact that we will never have all the information so again this is not a criticism of others who feel differently.

What I would look at for example is Crimea, which of course fell to Russia in a similar way during the Obama administration in which there was also some people calling for war.

If there was a major war over Crimea back then, would the situation for Crimea, its people, Ukraine, and everybody else involved with the war be better today than it is now? If Crimea was occupied by Russian forces would it have meant civilian collateral deaths? If many people in Crimea were pro-Russian separatists, would that war have meant bombing the people of Crimea? And what would the end game be? Would we still be there? How many people would be dead? Would it war there have dissuaded Russia from this action? What are the similarities with the regions of Ukraine being occupied now? I have seen almost no analysis of this with hindsight, I'm sure such analysis exists, but it is a concern to me that the warmongers have not taken it and made it front-and-center of the discussion. It would be a very good data point for justification of any action now.

Finally I would not support war unless a significant number of Ukrainians particularly from the region take up arms against Russia and start fighting. They are the ones who have the ultimate moral authority about whether force should be used to protect their land, and they have the first responsibility to fight for it. Sounds cruel and it is, but crueler in my opinion is to first send people who have no relationship to the place to fight.

EDIT: and when I say warmongers I don't mean people who are pro war in any situation, I believe war is sometimes justified. I was purely talking about those in the ruling class who are warmongers.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#677
post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, your hypothetical is just too far detached from reality to debate — you really think Russia in 2022 is remotely strong enough to sweep across Europe, and the only thing stopping that ambition is fear of MAD? Huh? > I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose. Again…what? Based on NATO’s military inaction re: Ukraine, you’ve concluded that NATO will also do nothing if Russia were to actua…

The (exaggerated) scenario is less of an attack but thought exercise on where the line for taking action lies. I went with belligerent actions over attack or small land grabs without casualties. Escalation from NATO let's say is "NATO declares war on Russia for violating sovereignty of Poland". Next? Will NATO liquidate Russian tank columns? As long as I've been alive, neither US nor NATO have ever actively engaged a…

> Will NATO liquidate Russian tank columns?

It will or there will be no NATO. It's the whole point. Certainly Poland won't just give up not to make other NATO countries angry.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that is true, then every explosion contaminates the vehicles and personnel staged in the immediate vicinity. Doesn't sound so brilliant to me.

Russian military generally played wars with an assumed unit cost of approximately zero. They still appear to do so, despite the declining birth rate (there's a reason russian roulette is called as it is)

Have they gotten dedovschina under control yet?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#679
post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean the line for action lies in the NATO treaty. NATO is not a philosophical concept it’s literally the outgrowth of written documents with the power of law. The T stands for treaty. The line is the borders of the NATO countries. I don’t think it’s particularly controversial that if someone drove a tank into Poland offensively it would be promptly incinerated.

I think the question is how does that escalate. If Putin is just taunting NATO with a few tanks crossing the border, and artillery takes out the tanks, that might be the end of it. But at want point does a broader escalation turn into a total war ... which bring in the nukes?

It's pretty clear actually. Anything that enters NATO country - is destroyed with conventional forces.

If Russia launches nukes - there's nuclear response, but at that point it's not really "escalation", just extended suicide by Russia.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#680
post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other three reactors there were operational until 2000.

Looks like they removed the fuel in 2013. That's good. Huh, how often have nuclear reactors been in a theatre of war? Is this the first time?

No, not the first.

Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear power plant in 1981. The plant had been completed but had not yet been fueled or gone critical (active).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/7/news...

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