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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#621

Post by Aeolun »

pdabbadabba wrote: post #608
Aeolun wrote: post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but the thing is. They haven't violated the letter of the agreement. What they have violated is the spirit . This could of course be blamed in Ukraine for not rejecting it at the time.

And what do you suppose this "spirit" to be? And what do you base it on? What should the U..S./Europe have done differently? Meanwhile, I'll just note that it seems perverse, to say the least, to focus on hand wavy, alleged U.S./European violations of the "spirit" of the memorandum while Russia is literally dropping bombs on Kiev.

> And what do you suppose this "spirit" to be?

You give away your nukes, and we’ll protect you.

I don’t think Russia needs any extra condemnation, do you? But that was always kind of in the cards. I hold my own country (and the rest of the western world) to a higher standard.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#622

Post by Aeolun »

von_lohengramm wrote: post #522
Aeolun wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it often has very steep short term costs to everyone innocent stuck in the middle Are there any examples where waiting and intervening at a later point in time turned out better?

The Soviet Union, for one.

Touché

Edit: Only sort of though. Because look where we are…

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#623

Post by bostonsre »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

MAD would prevent escalation but there would still be a fight. The United States has troops in Poland, if Russia invades, I would envision some kind of tit for tat escalation but would guess it would stop way short of nukes. But I would highly doubt that Russia would pick a fight with nato directly. In this case with Ukraine, it was clear to all parties involved that Russia could invade without other countries committing troops to the fight. I don't think Putin believes he could successfully win a fight with the west and I doubt he would want his legacy to be the man that caused the downfall of Russia.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#624

Post by throwawaylinux »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

I'm genuinely curious do people really want to get (presumably other people's sons) into war over this?

I hope this doesn't sound flippant or taking light of Russia's actions because it's not intended to be. But what is the decision process behind supporting a choice to start sending other people to kill and die for your desired outcome here?

And do you also believe wars should be initiated against China to liberate Uyghur and Tibet, against North Korea to stop the human rights abuses there, against Afghanistan again to put the previous regime back in power, etc.?

I mean what point do you say okay we need to go in shooting, and would you still believe that if you were to be the first on the beach with a rifle?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#625

Post by Aeolun »

krisoft wrote: post #539
Aeolun wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the only thing you can do when faced with MAD is to completely ignore it and conduct your war as if it didn't exist. Anything else would put you at a severe disadvantage.

So you are proposing that the air force can just start pummeling the air defences around Moscov? Because that would be a viable counter step if not for MAD.

I don’t think ‘the air force’, whichever that may be, has enough assets nearby to do such a thing, nor that it would be particularly productive even if you ignored MAD.

The goal here is to prevent one invasion, not start another one.

But there ought to be enough fighters in Europe to swat anything flying in Ukraine out of the sky.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#626

Post by sometimeshuman »

aksss wrote: post #557
DubiousPusher wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no precedent in human history for two fairly equal powers engaging in a conflict and one side refusing in totality to use almost any weapon at its disposal and certainly not one that an enemy has already used. Japan did not nuke America back in 1945 because it did not have a nuke and had lost all air superiority.

I may get downvoted into oblivion for saying this, but -- I think it's wishful thinking to imagine soldiers will make the 'right' decision when the call comes. During the Tiananmen Square debacle/massacre, interviews with people there indicate that many/most never imagined the "people's" army would act against them - they were considered on the same side. Yet act against them they did. Similarly, I think you see some…

"social/peer pressure in the moment"

It can be more subconscious and insidious. Anger, hate, and violent action is incredibly contagious. Mob mentality hijacks brains, and spreads like wildfire among peers. It's likely part of our DNA and it takes a special awareness to escape its grip.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#627

Post by ttyprintk »

ejb999 wrote: post #371

Probably not a bad idea to put all your troops and equipment stockpiles near an area that just about everyone is going to be reluctant to bomb indiscriminately - nobody wants to accidentally destroy that shell protecting that nuclear power plant I would imagine.

Shelling it is a cheap way to spread radiation around the center of the country, like a dirty bomb.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#628

Post by id02009 »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #624
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

I'm genuinely curious do people really want to get (presumably other people's sons) into war over this? I hope this doesn't sound flippant or taking light of Russia's actions because it's not intended to be. But what is the decision process behind supporting a choice to start sending other people to kill and die for your desired outcome here? And do you also believe wars should be initiated against China to liberate…

I live in Poland and struggle with this question myself.

I don't want to die or kill so the suits on the top can then negotiate new post war order, which would almost certainly perpetuate this BS in the future.

On the other hand: appeasement leads to more bullying, and might cause even bigger conflict on the future (we've seen this happen in WW2)

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#629

Post by bluetwo »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #493
bluetwo wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chernobyl is the ultimate dead-man's switch. It needs 24/7 maintenance. Do nothing and it melts down and destroyers the globe.

> Do nothing and it melts down and destroyers the globe. The whole globe? Gonna need a citation for that. It won't be fun for Europe or Russia if it melts down, but destroy the whole globe seems a little hyperbolic.

Also:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_meltdown#China_syndrom...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#630

Post by ajsnigrutin »

paulus_magnus2 wrote: post #284

We in the The West have some serious soul searching to do. A nuclear power has attacked a sovereign state and told us to stay away or something very bad will happen. They've been sabre rattling for weeks and weeks and we have frozen unable (or unwilling) to act. No good deed goes unpunished, every sanction has a cost etc etc but we're not ready to pay even a smallest price in order to save lives protect world peace.…

I'm from the balkans, and generally (and also due to being from the balkans), i'm against any kind of war...

but!

> We in the The West have some serious soul searching to do. > A nuclear power has attacked a sovereign state and told us to stay away or something very bad will happen.

"The west" really does need some soul searching... and a mirror... because the west has done this same thing many, many, many times, and are now bothered when Putin does it. From korea and vietnam, to more modern wars, iraq twice, afghanistan, syria, libya, serbia/kosovo, etc. And the reasons were even worse... A few saudis bomb a couple of US buildings... attack afghanistan! Remember the weapons of mass destructions in iraq? Neither does iraq. And not forget the "not-real-war" actions, such as random drone bombings in random countries where there is no "official" war (eg. pakistan).

Yes, most of the world in many countries can point a finger at putin and cry out angry cries and demand many things (sanctions, help for ukraine,...), but america and most of "the west" is not on that list, considering all those countries still have soldiers occupying quite a few sovereign countries around the world.

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