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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#281
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited Ukraine not being in NATO means we aren’t obligated to intervene. We regularly intervene in various things without a treaty requiring it.

America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. The simple fact is that there is no real upside to risking actual war with Russia - that the Russians will dominate the Ukraine while walking away with a bloody nose (in the form of minor troop losses of its own) is a foregone conclusion. Without more, that's a localised conflict that Russia rather hilariously can try…

> China invading Taiwan at some point in the future

And that's the perspective this should be viewed from.

The US may not have a firm interest in Ukraine. The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. The US has a serious interest in Korea, Japan, and the countries bordering the South China Sea.

You have to strongly and unconditionally support international order re: Ukraine, so that Xi takes away the right message.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#282
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited Ukraine not being in NATO means we aren’t obligated to intervene. We regularly intervene in various things without a treaty requiring it.

Absolutely. But if a NATO member is attacked, then member states are obligated to come to the member's aid. It's essentially tantamount to saying, if you are at war with a NATO member, you are at war with the whole bloc, which includes USA, UK, France (somewhat in/out member over the decades), Germany, Turkey, and so on. It's a formidable group that acts as a deterrent to any would-be aggressor. The US is not obligat…

Note that every member can decide how it aids.

Germany aid to Ukraine was to send them 5k helmets.

Those helmets didn't do anything against Russia's missiles.

---

That is, attacking a member of NATO just means that all other members must help it, but how they help, is up to them, and that help can be just a pat in the back.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#283
post #21

I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?

Some analysis (not by an expert though):

1. There will be no EU or US troops coming to aid Ukraine, and Ukraine knows that. It was clear from the start that direct NATO involvement could lead to WW3 and there is currently no will to risk that for a non-NATO member.

2. In numbers, the Russian military is about 6 to 12 times stronger than the Ukrainian military (in terms of tanks, fighter planes, heavy weaponry). They have already gained air superiority, so they can move around airborne troops quickly, albeit with a certain risk from portable ground-to-air missiles. They are also trying to install an air bridge near the capital, although it's unclear at the moment whether they have succeeded.

4. The main target of the Russian military are currently all major cities in the East of Ukraine. Russian forces can be expected to occupy the capital Kyiv within hours or days from now. If the Ukrainian forces fight exceptionally well, they might delay this for weeks but that's unlikely.

5. Once Kyiv is occupied, Russia will quickly install a puppet regime, send around death squads, and basically instill terror to break active and passive resistance. Pro-Putin Ukrainians will emerge and take over. It's going to be similar to what happened in Chechnya in the past and the Donbas region. Armed men without insignia will snatch people from the street and torture them, citizens will disappear, etc. There will be fake elections.

I hope I'm wrong but that's about my prognosis. The civilized world can currently not do much about it except imposing sanctions and delivering arms to Ukraine. A good response now would be to break diplomatic ties with Russia and to exclude Russia from the Swift system. It would also make sense to sharpen media control and party financing laws in various countries since the Russian government has been using loopholes to finance willfully ignorant evil and divisive parties all over the world to weaken the EU and divide US and Europe.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#284
We in the The West have some serious soul searching to do.

A nuclear power has attacked a sovereign state and told us to stay away or something very bad will happen.

They've been sabre rattling for weeks and weeks and we have frozen unable (or unwilling) to act. No good deed goes unpunished, every sanction has a cost etc etc but we're not ready to pay even a smallest price in order to save lives protect world peace. Or to save "western values" our leaders are wording at each opportunity.

If we really wanted to stop the invasion we'd send half a million soldiers to "hang around" in Ukraine weeks ago. Or at least we'd send them thousands of anti helicopter and antitank missiles. We cannot prevent Russia's bombing and destruction of Ukraine but the missiles would easily stop an invasion.

Russia is a country with extremely concentrated wealth and therefore power - the oligarchs are one of the few leverage points we have. If we temporarily froze (right now confisction would be more appropriate) assets owned by oligarchs in the west, deplatform them from payment systems, credit cards, universities, golden visas. Capture their yahts, jets they'd take care of Putin rather quickly. We know who they are, they're on the Forbes list posing for pictures.

Somehow we in the west eagerly go after the weak (Ottawa protesters) but cannot seam to do the same towards rich (with power and means to corrupt).

The rules based Western world has gone out of the window and we're quickly heading towards a world with two sets of rules (or rather two standards of rule enforcement).

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#285
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intervening militarily invites a counter response from Russia and could lead to outright war between NATO and Russia. It's one thing to assist Kuwait, quite another to send troops to fight a nuclear-armed adversary.

So we wait until they're doing this in Poland? I think I've seen this one before. Doesn't end well for anyone involved. Better to hit an enemy when they're not expecting it.

You realize that we can’t control the response of the enemy we “hit” unexpectedly, right? They make one miscalculation, launch a nuclear warhead, and in 30 minutes several exchanges of missiles are launched, millions of people are dead, and cities in America and Russia destroyed. It’s not a board game.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#286
post #21

I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?

As others have said, Ukraine isn't in NATO so there is no obligation for the US or EU to militarily come to its aid.

That said, Putin is increasing his risk appetite. Ukraine will most likely fall and have a puppet government installed, probably within weeks at most.

But then next year, what if he decides to up his ante and target one of the NATO member ex-USSR Baltic states for "reasons"?

Will NATO come to their defense militarily? Will the UK, France, Germany, as well as the US decide it is worth going to war with Russia to defend Estonia, Latvia, etc.?

What about China and Taiwan? If China decides to invade Taiwan, will anyone decide it is worth going to war with China to defend Taiwan militarily?

My prediction to those questions is - no. The authoritarian regimes have the upper hand in the current global state of affairs because the Western democracies are afraid of the consequences of going toe to toe militarily against them. I don't not sympathize - to be honest I have no clue what the solution is.

I don't think the opposite is necessarily true. If the US were to attack a country that Russia or China would truly lose face over (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. frankly are not), I feel Putin or Xi would, in fact, choose to wage war.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#287
post #236

The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. I think they've taken the nuclear plant because it is a defensible point along their shortest line of advance. They wouldn't want to move past it without controlling the site.

Also because it's very dangerous to attack a place where there's a lot of radioactive waste being stored. And if things go really bad, you can always pull off a "insane Ukrainians just shelled the power plant and broke nuclear containment" - if Russians can't have Kiev, nobody will have it.

> An official familiar with current assessments said Russian shelling hit a radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl, and an increase in radiation levels was reported. The increase could not be immediately corroborated.

You mean like this?

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-invasion...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#288

The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. I think they've taken the nuclear plant because it is a defensible point along their shortest line of advance. They wouldn't want to move past it without controlling the site.

Also a great news bullet point in the information war. "Russian forces taking Chernobyl" sounds much more familiar and much more terrifying than "Russian forces taking Chernihiv region" to all of us unfamiliar with the country. Even if strategically realistically it's the latter that is more important than the former.

It also has the following affect: """Don't the Russians already own Chernobyl? I guess it must not be in Russia. I saw a movie and I think they were speaking Russian. Wow they must be crazy actually entering a radiation zone, won't half of the troops die from exposure. I wouldn't want my son fighting those lunatics."""

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#289
Western sanctions will do absolutely nothing but push Putin further into considering invading other neighboring nations. He's going to reform the Soviet Union. The president in Nicaragua has reportedly told able-bodied 18-45 year old men to prepare to support the Russian Federation in freeing people in Ukraine.

This is going to spiral out of control, and talking will do nothing.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's a great position to hold if you can." It is a great position to hold and fight in, because the area is pretty empty of civilians. And russia must avoid ukranian (russian in their eyes) civilian casualties, to not loose the little popular support they have for this war. And neither side will be so stupid to directly bomb the remains of the reactor, but I think it would need a serious direct bombing, for radiatio…

I don't think Putin is worried about loss of life of Ukrainian citizens. He is worried about losing soldiers, or more importantly dead soldiers being repatriated on the news. They will cover up civilian casualties or blame them on Ukrainian troops. The only support for this will come from Russia domestically and it is that which he seeks to maintain with this war. Which I'm guessing he hoped would be quick and decisi…

"I don't think Putin is worried about loss of life of Ukrainian citizens."

Then he would just shell and flatten all the ukrainian cities. Russia has air superiority as far as I know.

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