Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

kusi.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 60 posts

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#51

Post by shlant »

torstenvl wrote: post #49
shlant wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

from one parroted talking point to another... not surprising considering your use of the word "propaganda". No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. There isn't even a mechanism through which that is possible as the components of the vaccines are all broken down and eliminated by the body in weeks. At what timeline would be be satisfied that there are no long term effects and what…

Let me know when you can engage without making personal attacks. I'm interested in discussing the science and policy, not having a flamewar. > No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. The OP is about adverse events in a timeline less than a year from the availability of the vaccines. Whether there's any link is an open question. > There isn't even a mechanism through which that is…

> "Whether there's any link is an open question."

The link has to be shown to be causal and we have a lot of data (more than any other vaccines in history) that is showing the vaccines to be very safe. If all you have is narratives spun around raw data that was never meant to show causality, then you don't have an argument. Provide high quality, peer reviewed research.

> "That is patently false."

Describe the mechanism

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#52

Post by dathinab »

shlant wrote: post #27
DarkWiiPlayer wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the vaccine have any side effect that COVID itself doesn't also have?

one of the few reasons I can think of is allergic reactions to the ingredients, but that is very rare and fairly avoidable.

and generally short term and as such fairly well observable

Vaccine ingredients which stay in the body for a long time could cause long term effects but as far as I know the current wide spread vaccines do not have that.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#53

Post by shalmanese »

Day1 wrote: post #38
golergka wrote: post #21

How much of these deaths are caused by COVID and how much are caused by anti-COVID measures (economical and emotional stress, isolation, depression)?

The reality is both. We have largely focused on mitigating COVID deaths but we need to address the devastation caused from anti-COVID measures because despite it being largely underreported and understated, the impact is there and we all feel and see it.

We can look at the effect of anti-COVID measures by examining regions with small amounts of COVID but large amounts of anti-COVID measures like Australia and New Zealand. You can even compare between Australian states like Victoria that had 6 lockdowns and WA that had virtually none.

The result is that all cause mortality went down, largely due to elimination of respiratory viruses but also due to a slight decrease in car accidents. Suicide rates actually went down, not up and there was a uptick in self-reported mental illness and distress but that uptick was far smaller than the later uptick when COVID became widespread. The economy took a hit but a far smaller hit than countries that that let COVID rip.

The effects of lockdowns are real and measurable and they are bad but far, far less bad than COVID itself.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#55

Post by yucky »

ryanbrunner wrote: post #22
TrispusAttucks wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you be sure it was from COVID and not the vaccine?

Vaccines had / have controlled groups where an increase in mortality can be observed. We don't have anywhere near that ability to track long-term outcomes of COVID.

>Vaccines had / have controlled groups where an increase in mortality can be observed.

Sadly this was not the case. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430...

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#56

Post by yucky »

shlant wrote: post #45
torstenvl wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical that there's such a thing as "best data" when clinical trials were intentionally rushed. Don't misunderstand me, I supported and continue to support Operation Warp Speed and I'm glad we got a vaccine quickly. But let's not now pretend that we have the same kind of data fidelity we normally get with more carefully vetted vaccines.

nothing about the trials were "rushed" in a way that compromised quality. Please stop parroting that talking point. https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines...

>nothing about the trials were "rushed" in a way that compromised quality.

Wouldn't most people say eliminating the control group in a study is bad for analysis? https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/19/9691430...

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#57

Post by kcplate »

morelisp wrote: post #8
agentgumshoe wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share a study showing where Covid is responsible for such rises in this particular age bracket? As far as I understand, 18-49 yr olds are not a high risk group for covid, so is it not worth properly investigating the vaccines and other stress factors (lockdowns etc)? It is only delusional to start with something outside Covid if the data on Covid reflects the 40% clearly already.

> As far as I understand, 18-49 yr olds are not a high risk group for covid When people say things like "not a high risk group for covid" it's shorthand for "not at immediate risk of serious respiratory covid symptoms should they contract the virus." It doesn't say anything about longer-term impacts (nor, confusingly for some people I guess, transmission); for that you need, well, studies like this. (But without the…

Correct, we don’t know long term effects of Covid, but conversely we don’t know the long term effects of the vaccines either.

Odd that no matter what side of that coin people argue, they forget it applies equally to the other side too.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#58

Post by shlant »

torstenvl wrote: post #49
shlant wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

from one parroted talking point to another... not surprising considering your use of the word "propaganda". No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. There isn't even a mechanism through which that is possible as the components of the vaccines are all broken down and eliminated by the body in weeks. At what timeline would be be satisfied that there are no long term effects and what…

Let me know when you can engage without making personal attacks. I'm interested in discussing the science and policy, not having a flamewar. > No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. The OP is about adverse events in a timeline less than a year from the availability of the vaccines. Whether there's any link is an open question. > There isn't even a mechanism through which that is…

> That is patently false. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116914/

are you serious? your evidence is an article from 1999 written by an anti-vaxxer[1] that references a study he funded? Just reading that article you can tell by the language that the guy clearly has a narrative he is pushing.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Bart_Classen

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#59

Post by camillomiller »

loudtieblahblah wrote: post #54
dham wrote: post #5

Could this just be that people didn't generally go to doctors in 2020 so this is really 2020 and 2021?

Funny how everything but the obvious big change is a conspiracy theory.

It is all but obvious. This data doesn’t prove anything, so why should it be accepted that it’s the vaccines?

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#60

Post by camillomiller »

shalmanese wrote: post #53
Day1 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reality is both. We have largely focused on mitigating COVID deaths but we need to address the devastation caused from anti-COVID measures because despite it being largely underreported and understated, the impact is there and we all feel and see it.

We can look at the effect of anti-COVID measures by examining regions with small amounts of COVID but large amounts of anti-COVID measures like Australia and New Zealand. You can even compare between Australian states like Victoria that had 6 lockdowns and WA that had virtually none. The result is that all cause mortality went down, largely due to elimination of respiratory viruses but also due to a slight decrease i…

I don’t think that can be generalized and taken as a sample. Australia, in terms of density of population and culture, might as well be another planet in comparison with say, Italy, or Spain. The truth is, all this conclusions can only be assumptions, because the amount of variables polluting any stat we’re trying to use are too large to properly control and account for.
Post reply on HN