Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

kusi.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 60 posts

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#41

Post by TrispusAttucks »

shlant wrote: post #35
TrispusAttucks wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree but I am not finding any coverage on mainstream corporate media. 15 years ago I would use that as evidence against the story. In today's media climate not so much.

could it be because drawing conclusions from low quality, raw data like VAERS and the DoD database is not good journalism? Assuming correlations is not something quality news outlets should be doing

How is reporting on an "unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021" from an actual government dataset NOT journalism?

The DoD at the very least admitted there is a data corruption issue that went unnoticed for 5 years!

Is your position that the citizenry should not expect a standard of quality for government medical data?

Had nobody reported on it would the error have persisted if that is indeed the case?

Without coverage there is no way of even asking these questions let alone answering them.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#42

Post by TrispusAttucks »

agentgumshoe wrote: post #15
morelisp wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As far as I understand, 18-49 yr olds are not a high risk group for covid When people say things like "not a high risk group for covid" it's shorthand for "not at immediate risk of serious respiratory covid symptoms should they contract the virus." It doesn't say anything about longer-term impacts (nor, confusingly for some people I guess, transmission); for that you need, well, studies like this. (But without the…

It's an interesting thing though that I often see these two views provided simultaneously: > Long Covid symptoms are most likely caused by Covid (even if barely symptomatic from the initial infection! - example: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/health/long-covid-asympto... ). > Vaccine side effects are most likely not the vaccine, but stress, hospital restrictions, lockdowns, prior infections, less exercise, bad di…

The control part is an interesting problem. If everyone gets vaccinated we have no control group. Which would be helpful for long term comparisons on outcomes.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#43

Post by morelisp »

agentgumshoe wrote: post #15
morelisp wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As far as I understand, 18-49 yr olds are not a high risk group for covid When people say things like "not a high risk group for covid" it's shorthand for "not at immediate risk of serious respiratory covid symptoms should they contract the virus." It doesn't say anything about longer-term impacts (nor, confusingly for some people I guess, transmission); for that you need, well, studies like this. (But without the…

It's an interesting thing though that I often see these two views provided simultaneously: > Long Covid symptoms are most likely caused by Covid (even if barely symptomatic from the initial infection! - example: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/health/long-covid-asympto... ). > Vaccine side effects are most likely not the vaccine, but stress, hospital restrictions, lockdowns, prior infections, less exercise, bad di…

> "Vaccine side effects are most likely not the vaccine"

Nobody says this. Vaccine side effects are of course the vaccine, by definition. Stop obfuscating what you really mean, which is "an enormously broad range of symptoms present in people who took the vaccine, and also many who did not, which no serious medical professional will attribute completely to a vaccination."

But even if I give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you mean that: It's perfectly consistent if you believe that COVID is poorly-understood and mutating, and the vaccines are well-understood and consistent over time. Which are both true.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#44

Post by shlant »

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #41
shlant wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

could it be because drawing conclusions from low quality, raw data like VAERS and the DoD database is not good journalism? Assuming correlations is not something quality news outlets should be doing

How is reporting on an "unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021" from an actual government dataset NOT journalism? The DoD at the very least admitted there is a data corruption issue that went unnoticed for 5 years! Is your position that the citizenry should not expect a standard of quality for government medical data? Had nobody reported on it would the error have persisted if that is indeed the case?…

I don't think it's accurate to say that the OP or your sources are just "reporting on an "unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021" from an actual government dataset". All the links are clearly coming to specific conclusions (which align with the bias of the source) that could not be reasonably made considering the data they are referring to. This is on top of the highly charged language and providing no link to the source they are making their claims based on.

I am all for reporting on possible errors in data, but what is going on here is much more than that.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#45

Post by shlant »

torstenvl wrote: post #37
shlant wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(not original commenter) according to all the best data we have on the safety profiles of the vaccines, and the data we have on covid, it would make much more sense for it to be covid. This is on the front page right now: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00403-0

I'm skeptical that there's such a thing as "best data" when clinical trials were intentionally rushed. Don't misunderstand me, I supported and continue to support Operation Warp Speed and I'm glad we got a vaccine quickly. But let's not now pretend that we have the same kind of data fidelity we normally get with more carefully vetted vaccines.

nothing about the trials were "rushed" in a way that compromised quality. Please stop parroting that talking point.

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines...

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#46

Post by torstenvl »

shlant wrote: post #45
torstenvl wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical that there's such a thing as "best data" when clinical trials were intentionally rushed. Don't misunderstand me, I supported and continue to support Operation Warp Speed and I'm glad we got a vaccine quickly. But let's not now pretend that we have the same kind of data fidelity we normally get with more carefully vetted vaccines.

nothing about the trials were "rushed" in a way that compromised quality. Please stop parroting that talking point. https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines...

I'm not parroting a talking point, and personal attacks are inappropriate.

None of the assertions on the propaganda page you linked changes the simple and indisputable fact that it's impossible to know what effects something will have in a longer timeline unless your study covers a longer timeline.

Science has no room for claims of being psychic.

EDIT: To be clear, the page is propaganda because it (a) is intended to influence public opinion and (b) is clearly dishonest, in that the concern is about the abbreviated clinical trials, but none of the explanations address the length of clinical trials.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#47

Post by shlant »

torstenvl wrote: post #46
shlant wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nothing about the trials were "rushed" in a way that compromised quality. Please stop parroting that talking point. https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines...

I'm not parroting a talking point, and personal attacks are inappropriate. None of the assertions on the propaganda page you linked changes the simple and indisputable fact that it's impossible to know what effects something will have in a longer timeline unless your study covers a longer timeline. Science has no room for claims of being psychic. EDIT: To be clear, the page is propaganda because it (a) is intended to…

from one parroted talking point to another... not surprising considering your use of the word "propaganda".

No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. There isn't even a mechanism through which that is possible as the components of the vaccines are all broken down and eliminated by the body in weeks.

At what timeline would be be satisfied that there are no long term effects and what would that be based on?

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#48

Post by stjohnswarts »

shlant wrote: post #28
torstenvl wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say "unlikely," do you mean according to your Bayesian priors or according to an analysis you'd like to share with us?

(not original commenter) according to all the best data we have on the safety profiles of the vaccines, and the data we have on covid, it would make much more sense for it to be covid. This is on the front page right now: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00403-0

You will never convince the people that want it to be the vaccine. Do I know that the vaccine could possibly have side effects? sure, maybe, highly unlikely though. These articles on questionable sites like most of the right wing pundit machine, I just have lots of experience with, and they are quick to insight fear and slow to correct their information as new information comes out.

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#49

Post by torstenvl »

shlant wrote: post #47
torstenvl wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not parroting a talking point, and personal attacks are inappropriate. None of the assertions on the propaganda page you linked changes the simple and indisputable fact that it's impossible to know what effects something will have in a longer timeline unless your study covers a longer timeline. Science has no room for claims of being psychic. EDIT: To be clear, the page is propaganda because it (a) is intended to…

from one parroted talking point to another... not surprising considering your use of the word "propaganda". No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. There isn't even a mechanism through which that is possible as the components of the vaccines are all broken down and eliminated by the body in weeks. At what timeline would be be satisfied that there are no long term effects and what…

Let me know when you can engage without making personal attacks. I'm interested in discussing the science and policy, not having a flamewar.

> No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year.

The OP is about adverse events in a timeline less than a year from the availability of the vaccines. Whether there's any link is an open question.

> There isn't even a mechanism through which that is possible

That is patently false. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116914/

Re: There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

#50

Post by stjohnswarts »

agentgumshoe wrote: post #4
drewcon wrote: post #2

I can’t believe there is going to be a serious conversation that this is vaccine caused vs. virus caused when we know the virus attacks many of these systems and were getting data back now that 12 month post infection has caused massive cardiac problems for unvaccinated. By all means, prove it out…but it’s a complete delusion to start with the shot vs. the virus.

Can you share a study showing where Covid is responsible for such rises in this particular age bracket? As far as I understand, 18-49 yr olds are not a high risk group for covid, so is it not worth properly investigating the vaccines and other stress factors (lockdowns etc)? It is only delusional to start with something outside Covid if the data on Covid reflects the 40% clearly already.

We know statistically that covid scare off a lot of pepole and delayed lots of treatments of others. We know the medical numbers are going to be awful as they come in because preventive care is import and saves lives, and lots of people didn't get that during the pandemic. But increases of 300% or 400% in bunches of areas? Does not pass the smell test, increases that large would have been obvious even during the epidemic. This article was just fear mongering.
Post reply on HN