Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

The blocking of ‘some’ of TV channels happened last year. Election to parliament happened almost three years ago, where actually one of the opposition parties won in a landslide.

Exile happened in 2014, due to closeness to Yanukovitch, for a portion of politicians. That was rather voluntary for them, mainly related to their stance on Crimea and so on. New “pro-Russian” figures came on the scene.

There are still pro—Russian political parties in parliament , which have media support (they are backed by powerful oligarchs) The richest man of Ukraine was the backer of Yanukovich, he hasn’t lost his influence or assets.

There is still internet, for example those blocked channels are very active on Youtube.

There is plenty of data that show suppport for those parties through out the years and it is pretty consistent with what I say - since 2014 it is around 10 - 15 % due to a number of reasons.

On the ground situation is very different than on RT or alike.

They are upfront about it, neutrality from the countries around their border

NATO continuing to send troops and arms to countries sourounding Russia is like trying to provoke an attack

The situation in Ukraine is much like Syria, but the other way around, USA supporting the government, Russia the rebels. Of a government that celebrates Nazism

Crimea had been a gift from the USSR to Ukraine as good faith for them to keep being neutral. Funny how it turned out

If this was happening in USA border like Mexico, people wouldn't even be discussing this, USA would already have invaded Mexico in the name of "National security" and everyone would be clapping for freedom

Somebody has a job to create the exact impression that you have--they succeeded.

Not sure about the NATO request, but the West had a prime opportunity to make a new friend after the breakup of the Soviet Union and completely blew it. Russia was suffering, I remember seeing a flood of used Russian kids toys for sale on eBay. And the US was just rubbing it in, exclaiming in glee at the collapse and offering little aid or support. A wasted opportunity that has led to the current situation.

> They are upfront about it, neutrality from the countries around their border

That's a weak excuse for using a "gray zone war" for safeguarding their naval fleet passage. Ukraine can do what it wants ( well, actually because of Russia it can't). But i'm pretty sure if Russia continues, it could counteract quicker than they think ( USSR tried these tactics already, see: Prague spring and Hungarian revolution)

"A symbolic gift, while they acknowledged it was a natural extension of the Ukranian steppes"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_transfer_of_Crimea

> The transfer was described by some of the Supreme Soviet as a gift to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the Treaty of Pereyaslav[2] in 1654 when the Cossack Rada apparently decided to unify with Muscovy, putting in place the eventual acquisition of Ukraine by Russia. Other reasons given were the integration of the economies of Ukraine and Crimea and the idea that Crimea was a natural extension of the Ukrainian steppes.[15]

> The transfer increased the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine by almost a million people. Prominent Russian politicians such as Alexander Rutskoy considered the transfer to be controversial.[17] Controversies surrounding the legality of the transfer remained a sore point in relations between Ukraine and Russia for the first few years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, and in particular in the internal politics of the Crimea. However, in a 1997 treaty between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, Russia recognized Ukraine's borders, and accepted Ukraine's sovereignty over Crimea.[18]

BUT, i did learn something new about this. Thanks!