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Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

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Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#11

Post by tgflynn »

uejfiweun wrote: post #9

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

Yes, for 30 years the West has been playing a dangerous game of poke the Bear, it probably won't end well.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#12

Post by artem247 »

uejfiweun wrote: post #9

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

So following your logic every country has a right to exert influence over it’s neighbors using military power. The are pro-Russian political parties in Ukraine, yet their support is low, around 10% and falling, so no hope of achieving Russia-oriented Ukraine via political means. The presence of West in Ukraine is overstated. Yes, Ukraine follows pro-Western foreign policy, what else could be done? Ukrainian electorate is wary of Russia, there are no other players here except West.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#13

Post by HappyDreamer »

thesuperbigfrog wrote: post #3

It seems like Putin wants to regain all / most of the lands that were in the USSR. It would be based on nostalgia and dreams for Russia to take on the greatness that the USSR had when he was a young man.

People like Putin, enjoy playing Risk the board game, in real life.

More people dead (civilians and soldiers from Ukraine) -- would just make Putin feel more proud and important himself. The opposite to how "normal" people's brains work.

(Some others here believing Russia feels "threatened" by the EU and Nato, fundamentally don't understand how people like Putin function. Such things are just what Putin says to mislead the masses. There's no noble or ethical reasons for what Putin is doing -- it's just a machiavellian person having fun, from his perspective. Or making himself less bored.)

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#14

Post by stfods »

uejfiweun wrote: post #9

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

Russian history is essentially a history of occupying and integrating bordering countries into the empire. That was the way to expand from several regions around Moscow to the empire's enormous pre-revolution territory in the beginning of XX century. You may google "Expansion of russian empire" maps to get an impression of this expansions.

Historically, most of multi-national empires in Europe (Austria-Hungary; Germans; Osmans) has fallen in the beginning of 20th century, but this one has mostly survived. Poland and Finland were lucky enough to separate, some other countries (Baltics, Ukraine) were less successful and got reintegrated into the new, totalitarian XX century edition of the empire.

It's natural that any neighbouring country not willing to become a playground for now less totalitarian but still oppressive and oligarch-run empire of Russian Federation would unite with anyone who could help, especially NATO. For example NATO and US could be the only reason for Estonia still being independent and successful just 100 km away from st. Peteresburg

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#15

Post by s1artibartfast »

artem247 wrote: post #12
uejfiweun wrote: post #9

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

So following your logic every country has a right to exert influence over it’s neighbors using military power. The are pro-Russian political parties in Ukraine, yet their support is low, around 10% and falling, so no hope of achieving Russia-oriented Ukraine via political means. The presence of West in Ukraine is overstated. Yes, Ukraine follows pro-Western foreign policy, what else could be done? Ukrainian electorat…

I dont think they were making a moral judgement, just a realpolitik analysis.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#16

Post by stfods »

tgflynn wrote: post #6

I think Putin really does not want to have NATO member countries on his border and he is afraid that Ukraine will end up joining NATO or at least becoming very closely aligned with them. He may have hoped to bluff his way to getting concessions to limit further NATO expansion. If that doesn't work he may invade if he thinks the rewards outweigh the risks.

Even Soviet Union has directly bordered several NATO countries.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#17

Post by HappyDreamer »

uejfiweun wrote: post #9

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

Do you need to write things like "Russia thinks the West ..."?

By doing so it sounds as if you group the people living in Russia, together with Putin.

But this maybe-invasion would be the deed of a dictator and his men. Not Russia-the-people. The people suffer under Putin.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#18

Post by phekunde »

Had the West accepted the request* of Russia to join NATO, we wouldn't have seen the emergence of cold-war again! After the disintegration of USSR, the West went into triumphalism-mode rather than showing humility.

* This request was by Putin few years before the Afghan war. Russia at that time was sharing intelligence with the US on the dangers of the Taliban to the West. In the initial phases of the invasion Russia also provided some logistical support to the Western forces.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#19

Post by uejfiweun »

HappyDreamer wrote: post #17
uejfiweun wrote: post #9

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

Do you need to write things like "Russia thinks the West ..."? By doing so it sounds as if you group the people living in Russia, together with Putin. But this maybe-invasion would be the deed of a dictator and his men. Not Russia-the-people. The people suffer under Putin.

When I say "Russia" I am talking about the government of Russia, just like how people often use "Americans" when talking about the USG, or "China" when talking about the CCP. I would actually bet that average Russian and American people probably have a lot more in common with each other than they do with their political leaders and elites.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#20

Post by HappyDreamer »

stfods wrote: post #16
tgflynn wrote: post #6

I think Putin really does not want to have NATO member countries on his border and he is afraid that Ukraine will end up joining NATO or at least becoming very closely aligned with them. He may have hoped to bluff his way to getting concessions to limit further NATO expansion. If that doesn't work he may invade if he thinks the rewards outweigh the risks.

Even Soviet Union has directly bordered several NATO countries.

If Putin doesn't want NATO countries at the border,

it's not because he thinks NATO would attack

it's because he cannot invade NATO countries.

So, the more NATO countries, the smaller his future Great Russia would be.

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