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Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

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Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#41
Right now Moscow continues to demand that Kiev implements the Minsk agreement, specifically constitutional reform, separatist region autonomy. Kiev demands full control of the regions’ border with Russia before going ahead with the agreement.

This impasse has been ongoing ever since the deal was inked.

Every now and then Moscow escalates trying to push Kiev to implement the agreement. It now seems to be more serious (or desperate) than ever.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#42
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has been agressor for the last 200 years. Yes, including WW2, when in 1939 it together with their Nazi ally divided Europe and took half of Poland. Only after their "ally" (out of the "fear" as well) decided to attack the narrative changed to present the regime as an innocent victim. That's typical Russian propaganda that they need to protect their borders and their minorities, which is being used to justify t…

To be fair Poland was first to start dividing Europe when it got piece of Czechoslovakia in 1938. Splitting Poland with Germany was done only after western powers refused all attempts by USSR to rein in Germany as wet dream in London at time was Berlin fighting Moscow and destroying communism.

> To be fair Poland was first to start dividing Europe when it got piece of Czechoslovakia in 1938.

Um, how is that fair? I mean, any “first” on ”dividing Europe” drawn during recorded history is going to be somewhat arbitrary, but pointing to the piece of Czechoslovakia that Poland annexed right after Germany annexed the Sudetenland and then forced the transfer of other Czechoslovakian territory to Hungary as making Poland the first to start dividing Europe is beyond ludicrous.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#43

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

You're saying the invasion of a democratic (ish) country, whose population is now very anti-russia, is ethically defensible? The US/NATO may be pushing up against Russia, but not by force. How is offering a country NATO membership at all comparable to invading?

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#44
post #10
post #7

I wish I could recall the reference (as the below is not my original thinking), but I’ve Heard something along the following postulated: 1. Russia has a deep seated psychological worry about invasion from the west across the open plains of Eastern Europe (Poland/Ukraine) (Napoleanic wars, Ww 1, ww2) so creating a buffer is of geostrategic importance (old Soviet Warsaw Pact / satellite states. Merely having a nato mem…

Russia has been agressor for the last 200 years. Yes, including WW2, when in 1939 it together with their Nazi ally divided Europe and took half of Poland. Only after their "ally" (out of the "fear" as well) decided to attack the narrative changed to present the regime as an innocent victim. That's typical Russian propaganda that they need to protect their borders and their minorities, which is being used to justify t…

Nothing in the above negates what you said - Russia wants to expand beyond its borders, and create a buffer with Western Europe - and given population and hydrocarbon based economy, it’s now or never…

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would actually bet that average Russian and American people probably have a lot more in common Yes definitely. Thing is, when someone writes "Russia" but in fact means "Putin and his men", or writes "China" but means "the CCP", then I'm afraid this pushes the people (ordinary citizens) living in those places, away from the people in Europe and the US. Because when you write "Russia" and "China", they likely think…

I see your point, and that's totally fair. I'll make a better effort to be specific about this from now on.

:-) Now I just need to write that same message, to 330M + 450M other people in the USA and the EU :-/

(If you share with others this different way of writing, maybe we could split 330M+450M / 2. But maybe you live elsewhere)

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#47
post #21

Russia doesn't want to invade and take over Ukraine. Yes, they just want to create troubles in the Donbas region. Unlike Crimea, Donbas doesn't bring them any benefit, just more headaches. And of course, given the russian stories during the last five years, the media and their cronies in the governments want to wage a war there.

Russia doesn't want to invade and take over Ukraine.

They've sure been working hard lately (at considerable expense) to make it look otherwise.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#48

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…

How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada?

That's a lot of "what-if", and more than a lot of hyperbole there. In any case the U.S. isn't trying to dominate any of the former Soviet republics (or even former Warsaw Pact) countries in any meaningful sense.

To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border

So how do most Ukrainians feel about the issue? Does that matter to you at all?

They conclude that now is the last and best possible time to make an aggressive chess move against the West, and snatch up Ukraine before the West can.

Since you're basically saying a Russian invasion is essentially justified - please tell us how exactly how many civilian + military deaths (and severe maiming and dismemberment) you are willing to "accept" (on behalf of the Ukrainian citizenry) as the natural, inevitable price for this bold, strategic move you are advocating.

Hint: something on the order of 10x the number in the Donbas conflict to date (which I'm sure you know) would be a good place to start.

Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

#49
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border. How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada? As a former citizen of Czechoslovakia I could not disagree more. Our countries are still recovering from decades of communism and Russian "help"…

Look, I get that Russia is not exactly kind to its neighbors, I have some Polish relatives who tell me all about that. But I'm just not really sure that the US has any business being in Russia's "near abroad" anymore. The US isn't 50% of the world GDP anymore, and is politically paralyzed - I don't think we have the appetite nor the finances for another gigantic war. Now this is controversial, so don't take this the…

But I'm just not really sure that the US has any business being in Russia's "near abroad" anymore.

Does Russia have any business being in their "near abroad" any more? Given their "not kind" history conducting themselves in these countries?

Would you like to give us your own synopsis of this "not kind" history in Ukraine, specifically?

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