Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

twitter.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

311–320 of 383 posts

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#311

Post by logifail »

tata71 wrote: post #294
lern_too_spel wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point when society has to open up is when there is enough community immunity that removing mitigations doesn't cause healthcare shortages due to staff infections or resource constraints. That's after Paxlovid is readily available or vaccine mandates have driven up vaccination rates, not today.

What region do you think is going to achieve another +10% on their current "fully" vaccinated ratio?

It appears that some regions may actually be at risk of driving ratios downwards as they shorten the validity of vaccination certificates for those already "fully vaccinated" but who haven't had additional shots since then.

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#312

Post by carlmr »

raegen wrote: post #293
grujicd wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very sad development for me, Djokovic's countryman who really bought his story. Nut facts are facts. I can share my own (positive) test, which confirms timestamp and id theory. My test was taken on the 7th January, it was a rapid test, not a PCR. But it's in the same government database: https://pcr.euprava.gov.rs/validate.php?cqcode=1641591150Q!A... Timestamp: 1641591150, which translates to GMT: Friday, 7.…

Skipping the part where I discuss my general doubt of intellectual capabilities of the fellow commenters here. - Datum uzorkovanja (Date of sampling): 22.12.2021 14:12:10 - Datum izdavanja rezultata (Date of issuance of results): 22.12.2021 16:15:49 => I will ignore the time needed to get the actual swabs to the laboratory and do the necessary paperwork etc and round this to ~2 hours of time available for testing. -…

>See, unless my fellow countrymen have developed a way to do PCR tests 5 times faster than the fastest tests available in the (rest) of the world, this test in itself is a joke.

While I have no clue how they work in detail they offer 60 min express PCRs in Germany at least at my airport.

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#313

Post by ls15 »

YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote: post #287
ls15 wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my country, the certs are required to enter businesses.

Doubt. You can't use a vaccination card or WHO vaccine passport? which country are you residing in?

> Doubt. You can't use a vaccination card or WHO vaccine passport? which country are you residing in?

Germany. My vaccine cert is from a non-EU country. I cannot enter businesses without the digital EU cert. It's real.

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#315

Post by logifail »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #267
logifail wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The timeline doesn't look good for him [..] There are scientists who state we're at the point where "we need to target the vulnerable" (rather than giving boosters to all over-12s) and that "there [is] no point in trying to stop all infections, and that at some point, society has to open up". Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, chairman of the [UK's] Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is one of them.

The point when society has to open up is when there is enough community immunity that removing mitigations doesn't cause healthcare shortages due to staff infections or resource constraints. That's after Paxlovid is readily available or vaccine mandates have driven up vaccination rates, not today.

> The point when society has to open up is when there is enough community immunity that removing mitigations doesn't cause healthcare shortages due to staff infections or resource constraints [..]

Currently many staff shortages are being made much worse by public health policy, not Covid19 itself, in that otherwise healthy staff being forced to stay away from work to comply with quarantine requirements.

These requirements are now being relaxed[0], which is a good thing, but at some point the requirements need to go back to how the world worked before Covid which is approximately "if you're sick, please stay at home; if you're healthy, please come to work".

[0] CDC Updates and Shortens Recommended Isolation and Quarantine Period for General Population https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quar...

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#316

Post by lern_too_spel »

tata71 wrote: post #294
lern_too_spel wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point when society has to open up is when there is enough community immunity that removing mitigations doesn't cause healthcare shortages due to staff infections or resource constraints. That's after Paxlovid is readily available or vaccine mandates have driven up vaccination rates, not today.

What region do you think is going to achieve another +10% on their current "fully" vaccinated ratio?

Most of the country. There are only a few places where the vaccination rate is already high enough that a mandate couldn't increase it at least 10%.

The scare quotes around "fully" are unnecessary. Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations. (Sure, if you want them to reduce your own risk, that's fine because they have been approved. If you want them to reduce disruptions in your workplace, that is also fine. Just don't expect to materially impact health system availability.) Vaccinating the unvaccinated has a much larger effect. Alternatively, Omicron seems like it will reach them before mandates take effect or Paxlovid supply is ready, with worse outcomes on the health system.

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#317

Post by saberdancer »

msuvakov wrote: post #281
saberdancer wrote: post #279

Someone plotted test result IDs and times and the outlier is Djokovic's positive test - https://twitter.com/msuvakov/status/1481018537368035330 From the whole timeline, it would look to me as someone created a later test result that they backdated for him to be able to apply for a Visa. This would explain why Djokovic was out in public at the time he was apparently positive (I doubt he would have public appearances a…

Updated plot (29 test data from volontiers) is available here: https://twitter.com/msuvakov/status/1481033480901431297 Only outlier is Djokovic's positive test. It perfectly fits to 26. December, the same date timestamp was created.

Thank you. I'd say that is very convincing, especially with him walking about on 16, 17th and 18th.

When scanning a QR code, is the date visible anywhere on the page? I am trying to guess whether someone just edited a PDF with a different date (might explain why they chose 16.12 - you need to change a single number). Alternative would require someone back dating a test in the system.

In any case, not a good look for Djokovic.

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#318

Post by mandarino »

grujicd wrote: post #223
grujicd wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, this is getting strange. There are two ways to get test results: - it's automatically sent to email (if they have it) - you can download it from ezdravlje.rs portal The test I shared above is the one I got on email. However, I went to portal, downloaded pdf, and now I have two copies. They're different! IDs and all the data are the same, but QR codes are different. This is the new one: https://pcr.euprava.gov.rs/…

I have 2 more datapoints. My wife went with me to the testing on the same date. If you're negative on rapid test, they usually take PCR as well. Since she was negative on the first one, there was a PCR too. These are her QR urls: Rapid test: https://pcr.euprava.gov.rs/validate.php?cqcode=16415703349MJ... Timestamp: 1641570334, time: GMT: Friday, 7. January 2022. 15:45:34 PCR: https://pcr.euprava.gov.rs/validate.php?c…

Great analysis!

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#319

Post by logifail »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #316
tata71 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What region do you think is going to achieve another +10% on their current "fully" vaccinated ratio?

Most of the country. There are only a few places where the vaccination rate is already high enough that a mandate couldn't increase it at least 10%. The scare quotes around "fully" are unnecessary. Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations. (Su…

> Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations.

If you look at the data, it appears that vaccinating the young and healthy has "a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations", too.

Re: Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?

#320

Post by lern_too_spel »

logifail wrote: post #319
lern_too_spel wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the country. There are only a few places where the vaccination rate is already high enough that a mandate couldn't increase it at least 10%. The scare quotes around "fully" are unnecessary. Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations. (Su…

> Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations. If you look at the data, it appears that vaccinating the young and healthy has "a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations", too.

There are very few young and healthy in the parts of the country where vaccination rates are low. The last Covid hospitalization surge in the US was mostly working age adults, whom the mandates would apply to.
Post reply on HN