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I’ve read the article - I don’t see where it specifies the cause of the reported deaths. I interpreted it as deaths caused by Covid. Do you have a reason to interpret it differently?
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That's not how it works. For a geometric distribution with p=1/80 the mean or expected value is indeed 80. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution Your gun example has a uniform distribution between 1 and 80 with an expected value of roughly 40 if you don't spin the chamber each time between pulling the trigger. If you spin it each time, then it's again the geometric distribution and the expected value i…
"evenly distributed" implies uniform distribution
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> that by using the term "3 sigma" I'm assuming they're modeling the data as a normal distribution variance and standard deviation don't only apply to normal distributions. and "sigma" is the symbol normally used for variance regardless of the underlying distribution. > I'm assuming sigh.
Yes, I'm fully aware that variance and standard deviation apply to any sample or population, and that sigma is normally used for standard deviation. However, in everyday usage, saying something is a "2 or 3 sigma" event nearly always refers to a normal distribution unless otherwise noted, because otherwise that information doesn't really tell you anything. Is only with a specific distribution that can imply a percent…
Life Expectancy in U.S. Declined 1.8 Years in 2020, CDC Says https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/life-expectancy-in-u-s-decl... This is for 2020 - COVID-19 deaths are more for 2021. Really wild numbers if you think about it.
It also hints that covid-19 related deaths are undercounted in the us.
Have to look at the numbers to understand
I’m curious what factors are the major causes. I’m guessing mental health, obesity and drugs. Although anecdotal, I know multiple people who had a major downward spiral the past 12 months, particularly in mental health. Delaying treatment the last 18-24 months for basic checkups could also lead to some major issues.
I can already see this being used as a source that the vaccines are the reason for the increased deaths. Could anyone point out if how vaccines as the casue could be ruled out by this data?
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https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html has the actuarial table by age, which is indeed a base rate above 0.002 from age 46 onward.
Wow, remarkably the Queen, who is 95, is unlikely to make it to 100. In fact her annual hurdle rate is greater than 1/5. Am I reading this wrong?
“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…
> 3 standard deviations, which is really unbelievable People reporting on deaths have to average over a period, otherwise you find deaths drop on weekends and spike on mondays because that's when the paperwork gets processed. In this case, they're averaging over an entire quarter. I could well believe that the variance in death rates between Q4 2008 and Q4 2018 had a standard deviation of 3% - an entire quarter is a…
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It also hints that covid-19 related deaths are undercounted in the us.
The Economist article posted here a few days ago had the US at a bit over 1 million deaths. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
I wonder what the fentanyl factor is.
Fentanyl factor did not start in March of 2020.
Have a look at the picture on this page to see how much lethal it is : https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene...