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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#171

Post by mlyle »

woodruffw wrote: post #126
nerdbaggy wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct! “ The synthetic and highly addictive drug has claimed more lives than COVID-19, auto crashes, gun violence, cancer and suicide in the year 2020.” https://www.abc12.com/news/fentanyl-number-one-cause-of-deat...

Government data does not say that. The CDC recorded 100k drug overdose deaths in 2020[1], ~75% of which were from opioids. They don't have a breakdown of how many of those 75k opioid deaths were fentanyl, but it's an order of magnitude below just the confirmed number of COVID-19 deaths in 2020[2]. Edit: The reporting in this article is remarkably bad: it confuses a two-year range (Jan-2020 to Dec-2021) with a one-yea…

I agree the report makes its point poorly and phrases statistics carelessly, but you made a similar mistake: they explicitly state it exceeds COVID deaths over ages 18-45.

All these media reports were all influenced by this underlying factsheet from FAF.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S0szR2Ua9v0Sr91YhDD7gPrXsDk...

Broadly, it appears true: fentanyl deaths look like they outweigh all those things in the younger population. And it doesn't look implausible that synthetic opioids could have killed a total of 64k across the entire population in 2021. (I think they were comparing trailing-twelve-month data from two dates in each case..)

edit, 3mins: I was distracted and my previous version of this reply was word salad.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#172

Post by nn3 »

encoderer wrote: post #138

> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. And how does it…

Maybe it's similar to the well known "more likely to be hit by a meteorite than to win the lottery" style statements. Obviously that's completely wrong: i've never heard of anyone being hit by a meteorite, but people win the lottery every month.

I'm not saying that they're actively lying, but it seems some assumptions in these frequentist's numbers are just not correct.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#173

Post by Developerx »

sudosysgen wrote: post #160
nu11ptr wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are statisticians who have made such claims by modeling many highly vaccinated countries. I am not claiming they are right or wrong, but there are people who claim they have found this signal in the data using statistical methods.

Link?

No post body was provided.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#174

Post by lostlogin »

throwaway4good wrote: post #119
throwaway4good wrote: post #92

Life Expectancy in U.S. Declined 1.8 Years in 2020, CDC Says https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/life-expectancy-in-u-s-decl... This is for 2020 - COVID-19 deaths are more for 2021. Really wild numbers if you think about it.

It also hints that covid-19 related deaths are undercounted in the us.

The Economist article posted here a few days ago had the US at a bit over 1 million deaths.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#175

Post by cmurf »

throwaway4good wrote: post #119
throwaway4good wrote: post #92

Life Expectancy in U.S. Declined 1.8 Years in 2020, CDC Says https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/life-expectancy-in-u-s-decl... This is for 2020 - COVID-19 deaths are more for 2021. Really wild numbers if you think about it.

It also hints that covid-19 related deaths are undercounted in the us.

That's what the CEO is quoted as saying: What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#176

Post by hansel_der »

dazc wrote: post #64
oneplane wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't legally obligated to track people with cookies either. It's always their own choice.

But they have a cookie consent banner regardless of whether they are tracking people of not.

Fixed that for you:

But they are tracking people regardless of whether they have a cookie consent banner or not.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#178

Post by toss1 »

spamizbad wrote: post #125
toss1 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

People really need to multiply that death rate against a population of people who are likely to be infected. And they are skipping this step for whatever reason. A death rate of 20% isn’t bad if it’s a rare disease that has a 10 cases worldwide (2 deaths), whereas a 0.2% death rate is devastating for a highly contagious virus that spreads rapidly over the planet (millions of deaths)

That was already done, and specified in the comment.

>>“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

In fact, it was the entire point of the article - this disease is so bad because the entire population of people is subject to infection, and the death and disability rate is very substantial.

>>whereas a 0.2% death rate is devastating for a highly contagious virus that spreads rapidly over the planet (millions of deaths)

We've got that. Here. In this topic and case.

So, I'm really struggling to see the point of the comment. ?

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#179

Post by Developerx »

sudosysgen wrote: post #161
Developerx wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stat from who? Are you sure you can believe the official stats and so called opendata? I'm not

So you don't trust any data from any country in the world?

No post body was provided.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#180

Post by jeffbee »

mlyle wrote: post #149
jeffbee wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No byline. No sources. Bad article. The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error.

> The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error. I don't think it does. Sure, they throw out the 100k overdoses number at the end, which isn't specific to fentanyl, but the other numbers they cite are around 40k/year and a run rate of 64k/year by Deceber 2021. Current data is here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm It's about 62k deaths from sy…

That data is for all ages. If you go to WISQARS and filter for ages 18-45, which is the subject of the news site's article, it looks to me like the numbers they are giving in the article are the same as the total number of accidental poisoning.
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