Earlier quoted context omitted.
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We can look at stats. The US isn't the only country with vaccines.
Stat from who? Are you sure you can believe the official stats and so called opendata? I'm not
Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#132Pandemics are defined by "excess deaths" so nothing really surprising here.
Covid is vanishingly unlikely to kill people in this age group. I always find it hard to find a clear number when I Google for a recent IFR, but it’s a fraction of a fraction of a percent.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#133I think these numbers are so extreme as to invite skepticism. Too often (omicron is 72% of cases) unbelievable numbers are, in fact, not to be believed.
Being skeptical doesn't mean that the numbers are not to be believed. It means that the numbers are to be investigated. Often, unintuitive numbers turn out to be accurate after investigation, but unless we do the hard work of investigation, we can't know.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#134I don't know what's going on and I'm scared.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#135“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…
Doesn't seem that is unbelievable at all to me. Instead I think it just highlights how humans can discount the severity of something when it moves slowly and continues for years. Remember the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 that was a major catastrophe around the world? According to a Google search it killed 227,898 people. Last I checked Covid had killed about 5.5 million, which is worse that every single war since WWII.…
You probably should use this measure instead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-years_lost
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
> P2P meth For those confused by the P2P acronym as I was, it's apparently a synthesis route that was developed in response to the crackdowns on OTC ephedrine products. It's apparently a lot more pure than the older stuff, at least according to https://dynomight.net/p2p-meth/
Huh wasn't that a plot point in breaking bad?
Jesse and Walter steal a barrel of methylamine so Jesse no longer has to boost ephedrine across the state. It does not, however make the end product blue
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
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We can look at stats. The US isn't the only country with vaccines.
There are statisticians who have made such claims by modeling many highly vaccinated countries. I am not claiming they are right or wrong, but there are people who claim they have found this signal in the data using statistical methods.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#138> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”
Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years.
And how does it even pass muster that a 10% increase in deaths would be a “once in 200 years” event. When has there ever been a 200 year period without major war, disease or disaster? What exactly are they smoking?
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#139The excess mortality numbers:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#140“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…
> It sounds very strange that the death spike is "over" 3 sigma, which should mean over 3 standard deviations, which is really unbelievable, to me this looks like an artefact of some sort Why does the fact that it is larger than 3 standard deviations suggest to you that it must be an artifact? If the death rate is normally very stable then the standard deviation will be small, so it will be easy for any unusual incre…
I think the other thing that may be possible (just guessing, I'm not a statistician or actuarial) is that by using the term "3 sigma" I'm assuming they're modeling the data as a normal distribution. But these types of outlier events often follow power laws, such that you get "fat tails" when looking at a bell curve.