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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#261

Life Expectancy in U.S. Declined 1.8 Years in 2020, CDC Says https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/life-expectancy-in-u-s-decl... This is for 2020 - COVID-19 deaths are more for 2021. Really wild numbers if you think about it.

It also hints that covid-19 related deaths are undercounted in the us.

It could also hint that excess deaths from lockdown policies are higher than expected. COVID deaths are almost certainly undercounted by some factor, but suicides and drug overdoses are skyrocketing. These numbers would make sense if the cure is worse than the disease too.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#262

Careful there, don’t want to give fodder to the anti vax crowd

If the data suggests that lockdowns are causing excess mortality, that should be important to public policy discussions regardless of how it feels.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#263

Just for background and not trying to malign the source, but the was at a press conference where the Chamber of Commerce and hospital leaders were imploring state residents to get vaccinated as to avoid a vaccine mandate that the state legislature was considering for employers Feels like the insurance guy at this press conference is trying to 'scare' young folks into getting the vaccine. My question is, the life insu…

In a lot of cases we don't even have a good cause of death. There are a lot of areas without a good medical examiner system and the systems are overloaded even when they normally are good.

Covid is quite capable of killing with a clot when your symptoms aren't to the point that you'll be in the hospital these days. This will show up as a stroke or a heart attack or pulmonary embolism--and if the docs don't put in the effort they won't know it was Covid (and for that matter it can't be proven anyway--lethal clots happen even without Covid. While it's a reasonable presumption that Covid caused the clot there's no proof in any given case.) There's also a lot of families that don't want Covid on the death certificate--even more reason the clot won't be attributed to Covid.

(And, yes, there are plenty of other ways clots can kill--I'm just looking at the cases that are likely to kill without ever reaching the hospital.)

Undertakers have also been noticing this--lots of bodies showing Covid clotting even though they aren't reported as Covid deaths.

Edit: I forgot an additional factor. If you do survive your Covid hospital stay you have a substantially elevated all-cause mortality rate at least for the next year. AFIAK the mechanism has not yet been identified.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#264
I run the same trail for over 10 years. In the last year, I had to call 911 for a guy with chest pains and twice for suicidal women waiting on the train tracks for the train. Never happened before.

I'm a little scared we may be entering a period of mass psychosis which is more deadly than any virus. The psychological conditions that lead people to burn witches and the rise of dictatorships are here.

If I was richer I would probably be buying a home on some tiny island in the Caribbean.

Great video on mass psychosis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09maaUaRT4M

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. I just don't take it seriously anymore. Track 200 factors, 200 businesses, or 200 industries and you will see 1 event per year. Track all of the above and you will see 40,000 such events in a year. More to the point, their actuarial model was probably wrong, not reality. Somewhere buried in their model were assumptions exclu…

I think the more thought-provoking question is what exactly is the Black Swan event? If only 37% of their ICU beds are used for COVID patients then why are so many more people dying right now?

1) 37% of ICU beds for Covid means about a 50% increase in ICU patients.

2) If you go into the ICU for Covid you're probably leaving via the morgue. The survival chance for a Covid patient in the ICU is a lot lower than the typical ICU patient.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#266
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m surprised it is as high as you claim! You’re saying that for that age group, in a given year, the chances are 1 in 200 of dying? That seems like pretty bad odds on something that is literally life and death.

think of it this way, 1 in 200 means the chance that you will not die is 99.5% When put that way, sounds pretty good, right?

Think of it this way, 1 in 200 means the chance that you will die is 10x worse than that of someone base jumping[0]. When put this way, sounds pretty bad, right?

[0]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17495709/

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#267
post #75

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…

> It sounds very strange that the death spike is "over" 3 sigma, which should mean over 3 standard deviations, which is really unbelievable, to me this looks like an artefact of some sort

It's not an artifact, it's incorrect modeling. If they're talking about sigmas, then they're modeling deaths as being normally distributed. But deaths aren't normally distributed, as you can tell by glancing at a graph of deaths over time: there's way more probability mass in the extremes than you would expect from a normal distribution. This sort of thing (modelling something poorly, then getting all surprised when reality violates your model) is depressingly common.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/deat...

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#268

Here's an interesting video about an increase in sports-related deaths and heart-attacks. Maybe it's related? https://rumble.com/vpnxkr-are-these-side-effects-extremely-r...

[1] is featured on the channel you liked as an expert but it appears that he has some issues / trouble being factual.

[1] https://byrambridle.com/

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#269
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Working as an actuary. The only way I can make sense of this headline (GDPR block) is: normally for age X deaths Y. Of those Y there are many with health preconditions that can’t get life coverage. Now a disease hits that kills some and effects everyone (this is somewhat contrary to the usual view of corona). You can have a massive increase in deaths without preconditions even if the absolute rise is small. So their…

They're in group life so selection should be limited. And they said the deaths are mostly not COVID.

From the article: “working-age people who are employees of businesses with group life insurance policies” - that’s a quite comparable effect although indeed not via the individual health screening thus less pronounced. Those not working are quite more likely to die.

What I don’t under from the article: they mention a $100 million loss on disability, but the effect of this size on mortality should be many billions.

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