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Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

latimes.com

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Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#141

Post by 908087 »

dbsmith83 wrote: post #13

> ...cited the apparent poor performance of what Tesla calls Full Self-Driving beta, a $10,000 option that gives owners advanced automated driving features and allows them to test cutting-edge autonomous technologies on public roads. (Beta is a software term that describes a product not quite ready for general sale to the public.) Wait, does this mean people are actually paying extra money to become test dummies for…

Paying extra money to become test dummies LARPing as test drivers who turn everyone unfortunate enough to be in their general vicinity into more test dummies without consent.

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#142

Post by tqi »

mcot2 wrote: post #112
tqi wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see the argument, but I don't think driver control/supervision is actually the crux of the issue. If Firestone had a completely new tire technology that was mostly ok but had an elevated risk of spontaneously blowing out, I would not be happy if they were doing their beta testing in public roads regardless of who was driving. The technology being tested seems half baked and not yet ready for testing on a public roa…

Its not clear to me that a general purpose autonomous car can be developed in a vaccum as you mention. Tesla has all the resources in the world to test with their own drivers on closed loops and using simulations however they choose to go this route and open themselves up to significant liability. Given the pace of development of other autonomous cars I think this may be the only viable approach.

Agree, but I think this boils down to a disagreement over at what point a FSD beta is ready for public testing.

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#143

Post by ModernMech »

ximeng wrote: post #125
ModernMech wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> https://mobile.twitter.com/taylorogan/status/146940457943982... > He wants to make people believe in the illusion that Tesla are in some unsurmountable lead when it comes to autonomy but they are actually playing catchup and are dead last because of the approach they took. I'm sorry, but yeah, the results in that video are worse than what we had 14 years ago after the DARPA Urban Challenge. I'm actually astounded h…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0wJAANgG-Vg You mean this? It looks much less capable and a much more constrained environment than Tesla deals with.

MIT was in a collision and probably should have been disqualified, so not the best example. Look up Boss from CMU.

Moreover, what I said was after the DUC. The results you see at the DUC were the culmination of a little over a year’s worth of work. They were at best prototypes constructed under great pressure in a competition setting. A lot of what you see there was held together by duct tape and 80/20, and the code was not something you’d want to bet your life on.

But things did improve rapidly soon after, as results were disseminated, the community began to understand what worked and what didn’t in designing these systems.

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#144

Post by ra7 »

beeboop wrote: post #136
ra7 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just Tesla influencers vehemently defending FSD, but videos showing dangerous FSD behavior are also taken down very quickly using DMCA. It seems like there is a concerted effort to suppress “bad videos” that breaks the self driving narrative. Latest example: https://twitter.com/mostlyharmlessz/status/14694217625553510...

The DMCA take down was by the original recorder of the video towards the person that re-uploaded it on Youtube without permission. Tesla had nothing to do with it.

I didn’t say Tesla had anything to do with it and I don’t know who is prompting them. What’s clear is that DMCA takedowns are now a pattern for “bad” FSD videos.

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#145

Post by ModernMech »

loeg wrote: post #138
ModernMech wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's right, because human drivers are exceedingly good at handling the average situation. If they weren't, you'd have accidents literally all the time. The average situation is accident-free. How much can you improve on that? The utilitarian argument for driverless cars needs to be that driverless cars are better at handling the edge cases than humans, because that's when accidents happen.

I think you’re confusing “better” and merely “good,” as well as “average” and “mode.” The average situation is maybe 0.99 accident-free (made up number for illustration). You improve on that by being 0.995 accident-free, which is better. I agree that “safer than some human drivers in some conditions” is insufficient.

What I'm saying is that you can't design a car to handle the average driving situation and expect to really put a dent in the accident rate, because accidents are highly correlated to particular situations. For instance, if all of a town's accidents happen in a highly foggy area, but your driverless car cannot handle the fog because it's been designed to handle the average situation (not fog), then how will it reduce accidents? I would think that to reduce accidents it would have to be designed to work in the exceptional case (fog).

Maybe I'm confusing the idea of average and mode, so if I am an example of what you have in mind for an average situation would help.

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#146

Post by jakear »

sterlind wrote: post #126
jakear wrote: post #111

This is why I drive a big truck. When egomaniacs can trick the government into allowing them to set their half baked creations loose on public roads using unknowing and unwilling third parties as test subjects, I want to be the dominant term in any and all conservation of momentum equations that may ensue. As an aside, I’ve driven maybe 50,000 miles in my lifetime. Of those, 47,000+ are using pre-2005 vehicles with z…

Interesting game equilibrium. You buy a big truck because you're threatened by lightweight Teslas. I buy a semitruck to protect myself from you. A few cycles later, everyone's screaming around like Snowpiercer in APCs and military bulldozers.

As much as I’d like to roll down I-5 in an M1 Abrams I think the economics of pulling a shitload of metal out of the earth and moving it around really fast will present significant damping to the system you describe.

As for the “lightweight Teslas”, I looked it up and in fact S and X’s are heavier than my Big Truck. Though 3’s are indeed lighter.

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#147

Post by jakear »

beeboop wrote: post #135
jakear wrote: post #111

This is why I drive a big truck. When egomaniacs can trick the government into allowing them to set their half baked creations loose on public roads using unknowing and unwilling third parties as test subjects, I want to be the dominant term in any and all conservation of momentum equations that may ensue. As an aside, I’ve driven maybe 50,000 miles in my lifetime. Of those, 47,000+ are using pre-2005 vehicles with z…

What's funny about this is the safety ratings for Teslas are much better than any big trucks.

Teslas are also heavier than many trucks (including mine) so this isn't surprising. That doesn't mean I want something even lighter.

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#148

Post by wpietri »

capnhawkbill wrote: post #99
wpietri wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For sure. Driving on a test track is a technical problem. Driving in traffic is a social problem. As you noted, how one drives in traffic is not just about getting somewhere, but about communicating and negotiating with other drivers around you. It's one of the things that makes me think that true self-driving may be in the AGI bucket.

If all the cars would be autonomous then this problem would be solved because they would all keep the same driving style right?

Not at all. You really think somebody wouldn't program their cars to be more aggressive so that their owners get there faster?

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#149

Post by wpietri »

mcot2 wrote: post #112
tqi wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see the argument, but I don't think driver control/supervision is actually the crux of the issue. If Firestone had a completely new tire technology that was mostly ok but had an elevated risk of spontaneously blowing out, I would not be happy if they were doing their beta testing in public roads regardless of who was driving. The technology being tested seems half baked and not yet ready for testing on a public roa…

Its not clear to me that a general purpose autonomous car can be developed in a vaccum as you mention. Tesla has all the resources in the world to test with their own drivers on closed loops and using simulations however they choose to go this route and open themselves up to significant liability. Given the pace of development of other autonomous cars I think this may be the only viable approach.

What? How many people do you think we should sacrifice on the altar of technological progress? And why wouldn't they get a say in that?

Re: Alarmed by Tesla’s self-driving test, state legislators demand answers from DMV

#150

Post by intrasight »

wpietri wrote: post #148
capnhawkbill wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If all the cars would be autonomous then this problem would be solved because they would all keep the same driving style right?

Not at all. You really think somebody wouldn't program their cars to be more aggressive so that their owners get there faster?

I think there will have to be a NYC mode
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