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How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

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Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#201

Dear HN, should I, a man under 40 get a booster shot? How many months after my second dose should I get it? What are the best resources to answer this question? This information is scary hard to get for someone who wants science, not politics.

It becomes politics when becoming un-boosted means losing your access to society.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#202
post #61

This is fine but still overlooks sample bias. I.e older and more susceptible to illness people like 70 year olds are more likely to be vaxxed than 25 year olds. Had the vaccination rate been constant across ages, the unvaccinated death rate would be far higher and the vaccinated death rate far lower. It’s bad stats to not account for the population differences like that one.

Thankfully, epidemiologists around the world did not wait for mint2 on HN to realize this. All of these all-age rates are age-adjusted according to the country’s population pyramid.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#203
post #61

This is fine but still overlooks sample bias. I.e older and more susceptible to illness people like 70 year olds are more likely to be vaxxed than 25 year olds. Had the vaccination rate been constant across ages, the unvaccinated death rate would be far higher and the vaccinated death rate far lower. It’s bad stats to not account for the population differences like that one.

No, the death rate in the ONS data from England is age adjusted. So among the same aged cohorts, the vaccinated are more likely to die than the unvaccinated. Almost twice as likely for the last 6 months straight.

I'm speaking specifically of the age 10 to 59 age group. For the last 6 months that age group, the vaccinated are almost twice as likely to die of any cause than the unvaccinated.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#204
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sigh. How many times does this have to be explained before everyone gets it? It is not all about you. There are other people in the world. Masks and social distancing protect them, too. In addition, as others have noted in this thread, death is not the only bad result, here. Long covid is horrific, and even milder cases can have permanent health effects that are extremely undesirable.

This is an unnecessarily sanctimonious post in my opinion. If you're in favour of fresh restrictions then for how long? To what extent? How much collateral damage in terms of mental health, education, the economy, social cohesion etc are you willing to accept? Implying people are selfish after two years of sacrifice is a rather churlish angle, in my opinion people advocating for continuing restrictions need to put nu…

Sigh, you just don't get it do you? There are other people in the world. Not one more death. Ever. If I could save an elderly grandparent by letting you die or your kids go uneducated or the environment get destroyed by plastic wastes, I would. Because it's not about me or you, it's about everyone else. How many more times do we have to explain this before you people get it???

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#205

Example at the beginning shows clear algorithm how to turn ratio between vaccinated and unvaccinated deaths, percentage of vaccinated and population size into actual death rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated. I wonder why they didn't apply it to real world data later on in the article.

That is literally all they did.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This article doesn’t identify any statistical problems. It just points out that it would be possible to get a misleading result if you handle your data incorrectly. It provides no actual evidence that such a mishandling is actually occurring.

The problem isn't only mishandling of data by statistical analysts, it is merely sufficient that government data be improperly recorded (as was famous last year, when people saw Covid statistics miraculously jump down on weekends and back up on Mondays in several countries) or that vaccinated/unvaccinated populations were misclassified (for example, by only defining people as vaccinated 2 weeks after they had their s…

The issue is that there is no actual evidence that the data is being recorded improperly. Anyone can come up with a just so story to describe how the data could be corrupted, but writing such a blog post does not in fact put a burden on the people doing actual analysis to refute the claim.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#207

For the irrationally angry throwaway, here you go: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... VAERS (an early warning system that allows unverified reports and requires physicians to report all seemingly related deaths) shows 0.0022% (9,810) of vaccinated individuals in the US died after receiving the vaccine. Generously assuming all those reports can be directly linked to the vaccination (they c…

> that figure is already three orders of magnitude lower than the 1.6% (772,000) I think the interesting ethical/moral/etc debate is what to do for people who are at lower or negligible risk of dying from COVID in the first place. For example, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... suggests that <20k people under 40 have died from covid over 2 years. There might be age groups or demographics…

Mumps doesn’t cause infertility or brain swelling in all males but you’d still want to get vaccinated.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#208

I noticed that they're only evaluating the covid-19 death rate. Not the overall death rate. Based on the latest data from England's ONS, in the 10 to 59 year old category, the vaccinated overall death rate is almost twice as high as the unvaccinated death rate

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/dataset/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#209

I noticed that they're only evaluating the covid-19 death rate. Not the overall death rate. Based on the latest data from England's ONS, in the 10 to 59 year old category, the vaccinated overall death rate is almost twice as high as the unvaccinated death rate

Sorry but I can't find a source for this statistic. Could you provide me a pointer to it?

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The youngest kids are actually more likely to pass it on to their families, because they can't isolate.

Any references to share? That logic would seem to apply to all groups who cohabitate and is orthogonal to my query.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/...
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