Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

ourworldindata.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

171–180 of 330 posts

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#171

Post by ifyoubuildit »

sciurus wrote: post #153
rob74 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.

> vaccination ... doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others Thankfully, this is wrong on both counts. 1) Vaccinated people are significantly less likely to contract the virus 2) Breakthrough infections are significantly less contagious than infections in nonimmune persons There's a good article diving into this at https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/11/22/most-pern...

> Vaccinated people are significantly less likely to contract the virus

Recently vaccinated people are significantly less likely to contract covid than totally naive folks. Efficacy against infection seems to wane pretty heavily over time.

> Breakthrough infections are significantly less contagious than infections in nonimmune persons

This seems to be in dispute (by a study referenced in your linked article). I think it would be fair to say they are at least contagious for a shorter duration though.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#172

Post by Godel_unicode »

bobthechef wrote: post #96
zwieback wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, convincing people who think the entire thing is orchestrated by dark forces is pointless. At this point, what I'd like to see: a) accept natural immunity alongside vaccination status, probably need some kind of antibody count test for that to work b) "incentives" for vaccinated population, e.g. 90% discount on COVID treatments while unvaccinated pay full price

No need to be black and white about this. It's not just a battle between the rabid authoritarians and hysterical Chicken Littles on one side, and the crackpot QAnons and categorical anti-vaxxers on the other. There's a range of reasonable positions in between. So let's stop framing things in the distorted and divisive way that the media has profited enormously from. I, for one, do not think the COVID vaccine specific…

Vaccine mandates make sense for the same reason drunk driving bans make sense: externalities.

The role of government is to cover for market failings, and spillover costs are a prime example of an area where markets are essentially guaranteed to fail.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#173

Post by nradov »

fragmede wrote: post #112
steviedotboston wrote: post #32

It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.

Is it? 0.2 percent of American's have already died from this. Or put another way, 99.98% is the current best real live actual number of how survivable Covid-19 is. Not some made up number with a bunch more 9's or 0's, but 99.98%. Three nines would be pathetic for a website's uptime. (I might be biased on that one, I do that professionally.) This puts it 3rd on the list of health reasons Americans die, behind cancer a…

Based on CDC data the best number of how survivable COVID-19 is for unvaccinated patients is 99.4%. That's a population average. There is a huge variance between age groups.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Vaccination pushes the survivability rate closer to 100%. We also have some improved treatments that have recently boosted the survival rate.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#174

Post by Tarsul »

lpolovets wrote: post #149
frickinLasers wrote: post #116

For the irrationally angry throwaway, here you go: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... VAERS (an early warning system that allows unverified reports and requires physicians to report all seemingly related deaths) shows 0.0022% (9,810) of vaccinated individuals in the US died after receiving the vaccine. Generously assuming all those reports can be directly linked to the vaccination (they c…

> that figure is already three orders of magnitude lower than the 1.6% (772,000) I think the interesting ethical/moral/etc debate is what to do for people who are at lower or negligible risk of dying from COVID in the first place. For example, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... suggests that <20k people under 40 have died from covid over 2 years. There might be age groups or demographics…

if you go that far in your analysis, you should also include long covid in your risk assessment.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#175

Post by listless »

pengaru wrote: post #104
listless wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. I am double vaxxed Moderna and got it. I was bad sick, but not as bad as my unvaxxed friends who got it. But I’m sure I spread that sucker all over the place. And by the way, the mask made no difference In my case. I’m convinced it’s a fresh N95 everyday or you’re wasting your time.

> the mask made no difference In my case How can you possibly know such a thing? The mask is more about reducing your spread to others, do you have reliable data on how many people you would have infected in lieu of masking? No, you don't.

All I know is I wore one and so did all my friends and it cut through all of us like a knife through butter. Nobody was spared. People think masks are going to save them. In my experience, they prevented nothing of consequence to me or the people I interact with.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#176

Post by throwaway946513 »

oceanplexian wrote: post #160
DanHulton wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have friends and family who have had to delay lifesaving medical procedures because hospitals are still swamped and medical personnel are still overworked from dealing with the COVID cases we currently have. Societal standards for risk still need to take into account far, far more than just "Am I, personally, going to die from exactly this one risk factor?"

I agree, however the obvious answer is that society should then build more hospitals and train more nurses, the same way that China did in 2020. Not plunge the economy into debt and force millions of people to change their behavior because of a broken system.

> obvious answer is that society should then build more hospitals and train more nurses

The number of hard to get nurses? Or say - funding for building hospitals that operate on profit? System still and likely seems to perpetually be broken.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#177

Post by Godel_unicode »

aantix wrote: post #72
elorant wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't move on when a substantial part of the population remains unvaccinated. With hospitals in the brink of collapse, there would be no return to normality any time soon.

~12,000 patients in the ICU is "the brink of collapse"? https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-ic...

If they're all in the same ICU then yes. Hyperbole aside, surely you realize this is a density problem not a magnitude problem.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#178

Post by Yoric »

hagbard_c wrote: post #127
microtonal wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another factor is that if the vaccination rate is very high, this also results in fewer deaths in the unvaccinated group, since it reduces the R factor.

This is actually debatable given that "fully" vaccinated people who get infected - a so-called 'breakthrough infection' - seem to transmit SARS2 at close to the same rate as those unvaccinated [1,2]: fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts Whether th…

Well, as confirmed by your [1], vaccinated people can transmit the virus during a much shorter duration. That's bound to severely decrease R among vaccinated crowds.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#179

Post by nradov »

eqvinox wrote: post #132
HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

You're forgetting the vaccine is also very efficient in preventing hospitalization. By a factor of ≈11 (average, ages 12-17 & 18-59) in the RKI (Germany) data[¹]. So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us. So, can everyone please get fricken vaccinated ffs? [¹] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges…

I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but hyperbole isn't helpful. Occupying a hospital bed won't doom the rest of us. In any given year only a small fraction of the population gets admitted to a hospital for any reason.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#180

Post by bastardoperator »

Minor49er wrote: post #44
bastardoperator wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much this. If the science and deaths aren't compelling enough, nothing will be.

The science and deaths due to the vaccine, or the unvaccinated?

I would say belief systems versus being specific to either or. Being specific, If the number of deaths from covid or the fact that that vaccines have been proven effective for over 100 years aren't enough to sway an individual to get vaccinated I don't think anything will especially a comment on hatebook.
Post reply on HN