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How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

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Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#111

Post by nradov »

rob74 wrote: post #85
steviedotboston wrote: post #32

It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.

The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.

I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but since the virus is now endemic everyone will eventually be exposed. You can't seriously expect people to tolerate restrictions indefinitely.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#112

Post by fragmede »

steviedotboston wrote: post #32

It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.

Is it? 0.2 percent of American's have already died from this. Or put another way, 99.98% is the current best real live actual number of how survivable Covid-19 is. Not some made up number with a bunch more 9's or 0's, but 99.98%. Three nines would be pathetic for a website's uptime. (I might be biased on that one, I do that professionally.) This puts it 3rd on the list of health reasons Americans die, behind cancer and heart disease and we sure as shit do a ton of things to prevent cancer in a large population (see also: Why we don't have more nuclear power plants. Hey guess what you get when you get exposed to poisonous radiation?).

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#113

Post by scythe »

admax88qqq wrote: post #109
lmilcin wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days you can't rely even on scientists to interpret results correctly. I see interpretation problems almost every other paper I read that has any non trivial research that involves statistics. Vast majority of people are functional illiterates when it comes to statistics. How you present statistics is more important than what the data actually says.

Fun fact, you probably never could rely on scientists to interpret results correctly.

This is absolutely correct; look up Feynman's parable about the oil drop experiment, for example.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#114

Post by ifyoubuildit »

jrd259 wrote: post #100
HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

If you are under 30, it appears your risk of death is low regardless of your status, but you will not forever be under 30, and perhaps you know some over-30 for whom the difference in death rate is important? Even if there's no one you care about who is over 30, to the extent that vaccination also reduces your risk of infecting others, it is polite to your society to be vaccinated. Perhaps you get no great benefit, b…

Presumably the under 30s will get covid within a few years, and then they will be in the pool of people with significant immunity.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#115

Post by thugthrasher »

s5300 wrote: post #90
dougmwne wrote: post #71

Dear HN, should I, a man under 40 get a booster shot? How many months after my second dose should I get it? What are the best resources to answer this question? This information is scary hard to get for someone who wants science, not politics.

>> What are the best resources to answer this question? ….seriously? Your doctor Good lord we are in for some bad times

And if you don't trust your doctor to give you good information, then find another doctor. And never go back to the doctor you can't trust again.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#116

Post by frickinLasers »

For the irrationally angry throwaway, here you go: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad...

VAERS (an early warning system that allows unverified reports and requires physicians to report all seemingly related deaths) shows 0.0022% (9,810) of vaccinated individuals in the US died after receiving the vaccine.

Generously assuming all those reports can be directly linked to the vaccination (they can't), that figure is already three orders of magnitude lower than the 1.6% (772,000) of people who caught COVID that died. Looking at the linked charts, if we'd had the vaccine at the beginning, we could surmise that roughly 77,000 (87,000 if you want to add the unconfirmed vaccine deaths) of COVID deaths would have been vaccinated, and almost 700,000 would have been unvaccinated. Add in the potential effect of herd immunity, which we never achieved--who knows how well off we'd be if people hadn't wasted so much energy railing against the public good (for an idea, maybe look at how the polio vaccine went over with the public, and how many people in the US now have polio).

Every death is a tragedy. A little bit of elementary school knowledge of how vaccines work, combined with actually using your brain, indicates the degree of tragedy could be reduced at least 10-fold if all the irrationally angry people would just get vaccinated.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#117

Post by scotty79 »

Example at the beginning shows clear algorithm how to turn ratio between vaccinated and unvaccinated deaths, percentage of vaccinated and population size into actual death rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated.

I wonder why they didn't apply it to real world data later on in the article.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#118

Post by scythe »

johndevor wrote: post #107
elif wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That perspective is only accurate egocentrically. If you look at population-level epidemiology you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread.

> you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread Is this true? Countries like Singapore and Israel are seeing huge spikes in cases despite having some of the highest vax rates. My suspicion is that vaccines have the downside of suppressing symptoms, thus making the vaxxed more likely to spread covid without knowing it.

See e.g.:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-...

Country-level anecdata is basically useless without a multi-factor analysis due to huge differences in restrictions and self-directed prevention by the public.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#119

Post by mcphage »

curiousgal wrote: post #45
KennyBlanken wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is not "proving vaccines work", it's explaining how some statistics presented in news or social media might be misleading. Also: no, we can't stop collecting evidence supporting the efficacy of vaccines, because then the anti-vaxxers will scream blue bloody murder about how "there's no evidence."

Pretty sure anti-vax people will still scream blue bloody murder no matter what, which is my point.

They will, but without us having the evidence, they'd be right. So we still need it, even if they won't listen.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#120

Post by jointpdf »

rob74 wrote: post #85
steviedotboston wrote: post #32

It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.

The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.

This is completely wrong—being vaccinated does reduce your likelihood of getting infected (and thus reduces likelihood of infecting others).

> In September, unvaccinated persons had a 5.8X risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a 14X risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to vaccinated persons.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-s...

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