151–160 of 330 posts
The average person (vax or anti-vax) will read this to the end, maybe even understand the numbers but then think "well, but half of COVID deaths are among the vaccinated". 90% of people know that Stats is the hardest math there is and the other 15% don't get it.
>90% of people know that Stats is the hardest math there is and the other 15% don't get it. I feel like this is a joke that I'm not understanding?
I don't believe this statistical analysis is proper, because it doesn't take into account the statistical problems highlighted here: https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-ef...
It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.
The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.
Thankfully, this is wrong on both counts.
1) Vaccinated people are significantly less likely to contract the virus
2) Breakthrough infections are significantly less contagious than infections in nonimmune persons
There's a good article diving into this at https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/11/22/most-pern...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because Covid seems to be exceptionally efficient at killing those who are already sick. It's somewhat survivorship bias... Now that we have more effective means of protecting the at-risk (and plenty of them already died), the mortality rate is going down since the mix of people getting sick includes more healthy people as a %.
Recently infected people haven't had as much chance to succumb. There are also delays in reporting I believe. I also think your explanation carries much of the effect size, but the timing also matters.
It’s not about recently infected. It’s about deaths per day of unvaccinated. If the amount of death among the unvaccinated is going down daily then it is. It has nothing to do with recently infected because at some point some of those people may die next week or the week after and it will be reported then.
For the irrationally angry throwaway, here you go: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... VAERS (an early warning system that allows unverified reports and requires physicians to report all seemingly related deaths) shows 0.0022% (9,810) of vaccinated individuals in the US died after receiving the vaccine. Generously assuming all those reports can be directly linked to the vaccination (they c…
> that figure is already three orders of magnitude lower than the 1.6% (772,000) I think the interesting ethical/moral/etc debate is what to do for people who are at lower or negligible risk of dying from COVID in the first place. For example, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... suggests that <20k people under 40 have died from covid over 2 years. There might be age groups or demographics…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.
I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but since the virus is now endemic everyone will eventually be exposed. You can't seriously expect people to tolerate restrictions indefinitely.
I honestly think there's a small percentage of society which would, we've all come across people out there with the personality trait of being utterly unable to resist wagging their fingers at their fellow human beings. Whatever your opinion on the restrictions and their effectiveness, nobody with eyes can deny that this social finger-wagging has been a huge part of the zeitgeist of the last two years.
I'm hoping that this attitude starts to die off as covid becomes endemic because aggressive moral authoritarianism rarely ends well for people who have a less black-and-white view of the world.
Dear HN, should I, a man under 40 get a booster shot? How many months after my second dose should I get it? What are the best resources to answer this question? This information is scary hard to get for someone who wants science, not politics.
34 Male, 31.2 BMI
I'm going to Las Vegas after Christmas, don't want anything disrupting the fun.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adult...
Dear HN, should I, a man under 40 get a booster shot? How many months after my second dose should I get it? What are the best resources to answer this question? This information is scary hard to get for someone who wants science, not politics.
If you have some kind of medical condition and a booster concerns you I advise you make an appointment with your doctor to discuss your specific concerns and get professional advice.
Hacker News is not the place to ask such a question nor give any response other than "check with your local health care service or doctor" imho.
It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.
I have friends and family who have had to delay lifesaving medical procedures because hospitals are still swamped and medical personnel are still overworked from dealing with the COVID cases we currently have. Societal standards for risk still need to take into account far, far more than just "Am I, personally, going to die from exactly this one risk factor?"