Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#161

Post by muzani » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:38 AM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #135

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down th…

Gold isn't a productive asset either, but people all around the world use gold as, essentially, a short against fiat currencies. Crypto could take over that role; I'm not sure that it will.

I prefer bitcoin over gold only because gold is not in my hands, and if it were, it's subject to theft.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#162

Post by ksaj » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:41 AM UTC

CodeGlitch wrote: post #146

hereforphone wrote: post #113

Hackernews comments will continue to devolve and become more Reddit-like on the whole. Someone will begin working on an alternative that will make them rich in 2024.

As long as memes are downvoted into oblivion, I can't see this happening.

A lot of it still gets through. The last 6 months has brought about a lot of Reddit-style huck-huck-I'm-so-funny comments.

I realize it waxes and wanes, but I share that fear that it's two steps forward, one step back, steadily gaining over time.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#163

Post by mrfusion » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:43 AM UTC

l33tbro wrote: post #20

I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote work is here to stay. Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pand…

You’re spot on! Except for the deflation part.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#164

Post by mrfusion » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:45 AM UTC

duderific wrote: post #104

krapp wrote: post #69

previously (compiled by csomar here[0]): [0]2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2012: https://…

Going back a few years, it seems like people were taking their predictions more seriously. Now, most commenters are just making silly joke predictions. I wonder what that says about our times. Maybe people feel less and less confident about their ability to predict the future.

Things don’t make as much sense as they used to.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#165

Post by ksaj » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:48 AM UTC

krapp wrote: post #69

previously (compiled by csomar here[0]): [0]2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2012: https://…

In the first comment for 2020:

"We will have driverless cars but not mainstream yet. Trucking jobs in the US won't go away as Andrew Yang is predicting them to be."

I'm guessing Andrew Yang wouldn't have expected an operational truck shortage like we have right now.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#166

Post by mrfusion » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:50 AM UTC

kaycebasques wrote: post #66

On Good Judgment Open there is a question about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in January 2022. I have a blog post [1] tracking my forecast of this event. Currently I have the odds at: * 0% chance the rate will be lower * 98% chance the rate will be the same * 2% chance the rate will be higher [1] https://kayce.basqu.es/bets/january-2022-fed-funds-rate/

Jan 2023 would be more interesting

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#167

Post by ksaj » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:55 AM UTC

5F7bGnd6fWJ66xN wrote: post #155

oars wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything in your post looked legitimate until you said COVID will die out in Q2 2022. Perhaps I am interpreting this sentence incorrectly and you meant the "economic effects of COVID will die out in Q2 2022"?

Yes, herd immunity will happen through both natural infection or vaccine induced infection. People will adjust and come back to work, school and economic activities.

This isn't really far fetched. If by then all the anti-vaxxers have caught it, then only the ones who suffer few or no symptoms will remain. The ones that were destined to have the worst effects of Covid will eventually either be vaccinated or dead.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#168

Post by mrfusion » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:55 AM UTC

wantsanagent wrote: post #53

- Unsupervised pre-training of vision transformers goes mainstream - An NFT platform reinvents DRM - Apple teases AR devices (Late 22, spring 23)

What’s the first one?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#169

Post by mrfusion » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 1:57 AM UTC

shagmin wrote: post #121

These are very loosely held convictions... - COVID will still be here but be thought of a little more like the flu. - There will be some devastating natural disasters that induce more people into taking climate change seriously. - AI will slowly cover more ground into people's lives. - Cryptocurrencies will continue to be overhyped. - US political tensions will continue to get worse. - China will have domestic growin…

Why are you so big on deflation? I’m not seeing it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#170

Post by maxerickson » Sat, Nov 20, 2021, 2:04 AM UTC

300bps wrote: post #19

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total…

The interest rate on most government bonds is fixed, the rates don't go up like that.