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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#141

Post by 5F7bGnd6fWJ66xN »

Inflation rate would be worse than expected, between 7-10%

Fed will raise rates after mid-term only.

Stock market will not crash until after Fed raises rates

Supply chain bottlenecks will continue into 2023

FAANG will continue to grow bigger. Regulation will not be finalized.

SaaS book will falter as FAANG make SaaS business models a feature.

M&A of SaaS companies being absorbed into FAANGs will happen

Cloud will move to the Edge. 5G enabled devices will gather traction.

CRIPSR related news will make more headlines

People will get bored of Metaverse related news

Roblox will become bigger

Infrastructure and Manufacturing in US will become cool again

Internet will become more balkanized globally

People will come back to offices. Remote workers will be disadvantaged

COVID will die out before Q2 2022

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#142

Post by knbknb »

hereforphone wrote: post #74

- Donald Knuth will die - Joe Biden will become unable to maintain office (due to age / health related issues) and his VP will become president; many will theorize this was the plan all along - People will settle down about COVID regardless of what happens. There will be more backlash as we continue to learn more about the vaccines (and require boosters at some currently undetermined interval) - $SPY will lose 100+ p…

DK inventing Math problems and witticisms until his very last minute

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#143

Post by AnimalMuppet »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #93
LeoPanthera wrote: post #22

* Queen Elizabeth II will die, prompting complaints about how much coverage the BBC will give the event. * A large earthquake (>6) in the SF Bay Area. * COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules. * A large "stablecoin" will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly. * The NFT craze will not persist. * In the US, the GOP will make significant polit…

> COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules. In a lot of the US there aren't really mask requirements anymore outside of maybe hospitals. I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing.

> I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing.

Could you be more specific here? What's the difference in attitudes between Seattle and Utah?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#144

Post by tuatoru »

Covid-19 is recognised as being endemic (here to stay).

Inconvenient behavioural changes like mask wearinng taper off. Proof of recent vaccination will still be required in public gathering places, and laws will be passed making vaccination mandatory in many occupations. Covid vaccination will be combined with influenza vaccination.

The realisation will become widespread that working age population in the developed world and East and South-east Asia is on a 20-year decline. (Government policy people already know this.) It won't change attitudes to immigration.

(Wishful thinking) The realisation will sink in that decarbonising electricity (and part of road transport) is only one-third of the job, and doing the other two-thirds will cost approximately 20 times as much, not twice as much. Everyone resolves to do it anyway.

The idea of global dimming (spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere) to cool down the planet will go mainstream and be seriously planned.

Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end, but there will be no promising replacement.

Autonomous, low-speed road-going goods delivery vehicles will be trialed in an area being over 25% of the outer, suburban area of one major (top 150) North American city starting in or after '24.

Russia will continue its "North Korea" geo-political strategy (do crazy things, including actions that might harm its own interests. This is straight out of the game theory textbooks).

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#145

Post by tmaly »

Focus on Covid will pivot to smallpox or something else.

Governments will crack down on NFTs with new regulation.

Volatility in the financial markets.

Some type of reaction to price increases in the US.

New types of remote jobs will emerge as technology matures around remote learning. Think Mesh for MS teams

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#147

Post by t0bia_s »

Trust of public in governments and media fall dawn rapidly, because people will get more angry and tired of constant restrictions, massive surveillance and rising prices of everything. Eventually civil war here and there. Tendencies of green pass and deals will fall, because people simple will not be rich that much to afford "care to nature", priorities will be more focused on survive (financially, mentally, physically...). Later (probably not 2022) being off-line and living in communities became new way of living.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#148

Post by oars »

5F7bGnd6fWJ66xN wrote: post #141

Inflation rate would be worse than expected, between 7-10% Fed will raise rates after mid-term only. Stock market will not crash until after Fed raises rates Supply chain bottlenecks will continue into 2023 FAANG will continue to grow bigger. Regulation will not be finalized. SaaS book will falter as FAANG make SaaS business models a feature. M&A of SaaS companies being absorbed into FAANGs will happen Cloud will mov…

Everything in your post looked legitimate until you said COVID will die out in Q2 2022.

Perhaps I am interpreting this sentence incorrectly and you meant the "economic effects of COVID will die out in Q2 2022"?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#149

Post by ploika »

armchairhacker wrote: post #98
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

Some parts of the world will definitely lock down again in 2022. I'm in Ireland and fully expecting a hard lockdown in January.

I want to believe that the pandemic will move some health systems away from almost just-in-time lean resourcing towards having more unused capacity to soak up shocks without being overwhelmed. I predict a single step in that direction for 2022.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#150

Post by simonblack »

The most important event looming, and it may be as early as 2022, but no further away than 2025, is a hot war between the West (5 eyes, Europe, Japan) and one or more of China, Russia, Iran.

That war will be so major that its onset will completely change all sorts of other things like chip availability, metals availability, motor vehicle production, phone sales, computer sales, house prices, etc, etc, etc.

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