Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#281

Post by nanis » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

jowday wrote: post #189

The answer is pretty simple - the moment authorities start saying "well, natural immunity is probably just as good as vaccination, we'll accept that as equal to vaccination for passport purposes", a huge segment of the population who's on the fence about getting the vaccine might just opt to wait until they're infected naturally, or, even worse, get infected purposefully (EG, chicken pox parties). Which leads to more…

Crying wolf repeatedly to cajole and coerce people is not a good long run strategy.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#282

Post by bitcurious » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

SigmundA wrote: post #264

bitcurious wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The downside is that if you already have a strong immune response you will have a much harsher reaction to the vaccine, basically four days out of commission. A reaction that’s rather comparable to breakthrough COVID.

Definitely need some citation on that please.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/af...

>Side effects can affect your ability to do daily activities, but they should go away in a few days.

> Common side effects: [Tiredness, Headache, Muscle pain, Chills, Fever, Nausea]

>Side effects after your second shot may be more intense than the ones you experienced after your first shot. These side effects are normal signs that your body is building protection and should go away within a few days.

I don't have a specific study for prior immunity vs. second shot, but neither COVID nor the vaccine are magic - both behave in a more or less standard manner. I've seen references to studies though:

>Dr. Erin Morcomb, a family medicine physician at the Mayo Clinic Health System in La Crosse, Wis., and head of its COVID-19 vaccination team, confirms that the reactions can vary based on your health history. "What we've seen in studies is that the second dose does tend to have a little bit more potential to cause side effects than the first dose, but for people who have had COVID-19 infection previously and then recovered, they are at higher risk of having those same side effects after their first dose," she says.

from https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/strong-reaction-to-...

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#283

Post by mjg59 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

unanswered wrote: post #226

mjg59 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccine either contains or triggers the production of a specific protein that is (fairly) stable across variants - so there's only one thing for the immune system to key off. The concern around natural immunity is that your immune system may respond to some aspect of the virus that isn't as stable, ie it ends up recognising part of the virus that's present in your current infection but may not be in a later infec…

So you're literally arguing that it's better if we have an immunological monoculture? Be honest: have you passed high school biology?

I've got a PhD in genetics.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#284

Post by nanis » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

mdoms wrote: post #246

aqme28 wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe (or Germany at least) accepts natural immunity in lieu of vaccination. As far as I've heard, no one has been getting covid on purpose as a result.

German culture is not as feircly selfish as American culture. They also have far lower vaccine hesitancy rates.

> German culture is not as feircly selfish

Oh, let's please not delve too deeply into "German culture".

Update/PS: Maybe the downvoters can explain how the unselfish German culture works when it comes to things like considering Turks to be equally valuable human beings.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#285

Post by mynegation » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

betwixthewires wrote: post #163

ziziyO wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is completely incorrect. Public health isn’t a personal choice.

Yes, it is.

So it is a personal choice. Would you be OK with the consequences of qualifying it as such?

What if an unvaccinated (by personal choice) person comes down with COVID and has to be hospitalized or - worse - put into ICU. Do you think they would be OK if doctors, faced with the crunch of beds, place them into a second tier, behind all the breakthrough cases? Hospitals do not do that currently, but this is not unheard of (e.g. bumping smokers and alcoholic patients in organ donation queues).

I am willing to accept this is a personal choice if people making that choice accept responsibility for it.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#286

Post by jpxw » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

bitcurious wrote: post #265

jpxw wrote: post #197

Pros vs cons of taking natural immunity into account: Pros: - An extremely small number of people who would get side effects now wouldn’t Cons: - Logistics: you now need to perform a blood test on every single person in the country, process the results, send out vaccine invites based on the results, and set up some system where people can prove their blood test results. None of the aforementioned components currently…

Some notes: >Pros: >- An extremely small number of people who would get side effects now wouldn’t What is an 'extremely small' number? The CDC[0] states that [Headache..., Fever, Nausea] are "common." Sadly 'common' is not defined, but with >100,000,000 folks with natural immunity it's hard to imagine a definition of 'common' that squares with any reasonable definition of 'extremely small'. >Cons: >- Logistics: you n…

I suspect that using past positive tests would make things even more complicated. It’s very easy to underestimate how difficult things are at the “tens of millions of people” scale, particularly for governments.

> You have a government whose vaccine policies are grounded in proper science and medical ethics, reducing the number of vaccine hesitant individuals

Circular argument, no? This point is only relevant to whether natural immunity should be correct if you accept that your own position (natural immunity should be taken into account) is correct.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#287

Post by oppositelock » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

billycorben2 wrote: post #268

KingMachiavelli wrote: post #155

Why? Probably because everyone and their uncle self-diagnosed a bad cold as COVID-19 and plenty more would lie about having natural immunity. Still I don't understand the current approach to COVID in the US. Vaccines are safe and available yet we only just approved the use in children under 12. I have heard second hand many doctors are downplaying the importance of the vaccine for people under 18. On the other hand p…

I am 28. A programmer with a sedentary lifestyle. I was covid positive last October and kicked it fine (verified with a test). I was tested 2 weeks ago for antibodies, my results were a “76” (I assume percentage?). Why should I get vaccinated?

While I posted above about being on the fence about vaccinating my kid, I was in a similar case as you. I'm in my late 40's, and I came down with covid early in the pandemic, before general availability of PCR tests, but I did manage to get an antibody test, and I was positive.

I did get vaccinated because the vaccine reinforces antibodies which are correlated with fewer complications upon subsequent infection. There are some epitopes on sars-cov-2 which closely resemble parts our own clotting factors and interferons, and the randomized nature of our immune response can lead to some less desirable antibodies being present. So, it seems a vaccine only helps.

One thing about getting vaccinated after recovery from covid, though, is that both the first and second doses knock you on your butt, not just the second.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#288

Post by gtufano » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

aqme28 wrote: post #222

jowday wrote: post #189

The answer is pretty simple - the moment authorities start saying "well, natural immunity is probably just as good as vaccination, we'll accept that as equal to vaccination for passport purposes", a huge segment of the population who's on the fence about getting the vaccine might just opt to wait until they're infected naturally, or, even worse, get infected purposefully (EG, chicken pox parties). Which leads to more…

Europe (or Germany at least) accepts natural immunity in lieu of vaccination. As far as I've heard, no one has been getting covid on purpose as a result.

Rule in Italy is only one shot after at least 3 months (and no more of 6 months) after the first Covid-negative test.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#289

Post by dekhn » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:41 PM UTC

betwixthewires wrote: post #163

ziziyO wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is completely incorrect. Public health isn’t a personal choice.

Yes, it is.

no, public health isn't a personal choice: public health exists to apply population wide, standardized (possibly tailored somewhat) principles and actions and their loss function is to minimize overall suffering.

Personal choice goes against that, because many people's personal choices will be selfish or convenient to them while putting other people in harm's way. Within a large society, we must be cognizant of the likely impact of our decisions, but history shows that most people will not do so, and therefore must be compelled, legally, to take actions which are for the best of society.

Some freedom is defined and assigned at the federal, not personal level, with the goal of ensuring the national survives existential challenges (of which COVID may be one).

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#290

Post by epicureanideal » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:41 PM UTC

jowday wrote: post #266

pasquinelli wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hasn't it blown up in their face everytime the authorities tried to be strategic with their messaging (a nice way to say play silly games)?

Yeah, I pointed this out in my comment - I wish I could say that I think this would have all gone a lot more smoothly if authorities were just honest about things from the start, but I think a lot of the outrage about, say, Fauci lying about masks to try and conserve PPE supplies early on only provided ammo for people who were already going to disregard COVID. At this point I’m not even sure it matters. The states wi…

> Fauci lying about masks to try and conserve PPE supplies

Right. It provided proof that the authorities were willing to lie “for the greater good”. So at that point their statements cannot be seen as truthful but only “possibly good for us to believe” (they think).

And as soon as people accepted that possibility, combine that with their personal estimate of how often “greater good” might conflict with what they personally would consider the actual good of the country or themselves, and you have a situation where many people don’t comply with the recommendations.

Lying to the public is a bad long term strategy for achieving cooperation.